Cold War, Round Two, Go!

So, let's say that The Great Politics Mess Up ends up being wrong, and that within the next few decades we see the rise of China leading to round two (a scenario which many Americans seem to be itching for, bizarrely enough). What do you think the main players will be, and how will it turn out?

I can see a three-way Battle Royale emerging, between the English speaking world (USA, India, and Australia as stalwart allies, with Canada remaining nuetral but slight pro-American and England trying to play mediator between America and Europe).

Speaking of Europe, apart from England I can see further unification culminating in a United Europe that is not actively hostile to America but sick of being pushed around by the nation and ready to seek out its own destiny. This Europa Universal will inevitably include Russia. True, the Russians might not like it just as much as the Western Europeans don't, but it is an alliance of necessity that will lead to Fire-Forged Friends. Europe needs Russia's resources so they have to accept cooperation with the Bear, but Russia gains from the relationship as well. Namely, the entire reason behind the Iron Curtain policies of the Soviets hasn't gone away, but this time The New Russia is smarter and is replacing that iron with a Silk Love Drape. We already see the diplomatic relationships developing - for instance, they recently announced plans for a joint European Space Agency and Russian Space Agency mission to Mars - one that they hope to get there before the Americans. It is kind of like when China gives a country a panda, except replace pandas with rockets.

Speaking of China, there's our third and final bloc. China is going to be the big guy who tries to protect the small guys from the other big guys - we already see China making nice to many countries in Africa and the Middle East. And because China doesn't care if you are a dictator, it will be easy enough for them to set up Spheres of Influence in the more troubled parts of the world. Expect the USA to oppose this faction, while Europe tries for a more velvet glove approach to China.

What do you all think? Sound about right? This is meant more to be a exercise at forecasting the future based on current trends, rather than a dig at any one particular region, so try not to make this into an argument about who is better. Just stick to future trends, and where you see the world going in the next few decades!

Oh, as for "who wins", I'm thinking Charles de Gaulle has a fine quote: "Yes, it is Europe, from the Atlantic to the Urals, it is Europe, it is the whole of Europe, that will decide the destiny of the world." This all ends with Europe convincing everybody else that if they could unify countries that had once been bitter enemies into a great new nation, then they could do the same for the rest of the world. The USA is going to simply get tired of fighting everybody, and China collapses when its people rebel against authoritarianism. This won't happen for at least sixty years, though - so hopefully some of you will be around in the 2070s to enjoy the brave new unified world!

edited 23rd Oct '11 4:44:51 PM by MyGodItsFullofStars

I don't see the US and India as good friends, ditto Australia, and the British would go with the EU, while I doubt Russia would join in because the EU refuses to be friendly.

I think it'll be quadrilateral. US, Russia, the EU, and China, with various other countries in the mix. It will also be much more economic and indirect than even the original, me thinks.

Cold War 2.0., to go along with the Great Depression 2.0. Now we just need to stick a World War III somewhere in between and the 21st Century will look almost exactly like the 20th.

Believe it. US-Indian relations have never been this good. And they're only getting better with time. (In no small part thanks to generous economic deals and outsourcing there.)

I second this (though it must be remembered that India is very independant with its policies, so outside of China, they won't necessarily see eye to eye...but it will be friendly disagreement at least)

You know, at this point, so long as they don't try to kill anybody, I almost wouldn't mind, say, Europe, Canada, and Australia banding together to take over the US for its own good. Just send some agents over to Congress and knock some heads together. Many of us would probably cheer them on.

...I sure wouldn't cheer. It would also not end peacefully, not by far.

Boils down to: we're too damn dumb and irresponsible to be able to get our act together, and we have too much influence on the rest of the world for them to put up with our crap forever.

If it's a choice between an attempt at peaceful takeover and nuking us from orbit to get rid of us, I know what I'd prefer. (Well, OK, what I'd really prefer is us actually getting our act together after all, but I have no faith in that ever happening at this point.)

edited 23rd Oct '11 5:36:07 PM by Jeysie

They'd get nuked back, so... yeah.

I can see some serious economic fuckery happening if the US and the EU suddenly went from "seem like friends but vaguely hostile" to "oh shit, Cold War 2.0. is real." It wouldn't be pretty.

edited 23rd Oct '11 5:38:05 PM by USAF713

Bring it. You send ten million men into my country I personally will send back ten million body bags. Send a hundred million I'll send back a hundred million.

Well that was jingoistic. Thanks for contributing to the Violent Redneck American Stereotype!

Seducing your enemies to spend their way into the collective poorhouse by way of overinflating their military budget is one way to "win" a Cold War.

I don't think that's how this one will go. I think it will be economic as much as it is military. The proxy wars will be much more shadowy. I don't think we'll see any of the major powers really deploying their own troops. Just funding armed groups.

A multipolar Cold War. Good grief...

Don't happen because when push comes to shove, the EU would work with the US but anyway there is allready a Cold War part Deux, its between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Australia's economic ties to China are so strong that direct economic action against them would be disastrous unless we can find another buyer for all those raw materials. Armed conflict, our government'd be with the Americans all the way (although the public might not be so happy), but unless things reach such a stage, Australia will likely try to remain neutral.

edited 24th Oct '11 5:25:30 AM by ekuseruekuseru