European Politics Thread

Hopefully this new government can pull Portugal forward a bit.

Yes, factionalism and internal bickering has always been the left's Achille's heel. You can put one of them, alone, in an empty room and an ideological split is still bound to happen. Let's hope they keep it together.

What makes the 2016 state budget debate so polarising?

edited 24th Nov '15 8:28:19 AM by LogoP

Austerity, that's why

Pretty much. The coalition wants to adopt a semi-Keynesian (for now, at least) approach for the new budget, with the whole increasing spending thing and so forth (and also raising the minimum wage, amongst other things). The right-wingers, who are for austerity and the current orthodoxy, are not fond of it, and are basically making the same question over and over - "from where will you guys get the money? And how do we know you guys won't make the debt spiral out of control?" (they, naturally, are ignoring that their former government coalition has also been responsible for an increase of the debt in these last 2 years).

Their fear is also partly justified, since the PS badly managed things (alongside the right-wing PSD, natch) the last time they were there. That being said, I hope the Left Bloc and the Communists keep a leash on the PS (Mariana Mortágua, from the Left Bloc, has already proven her value when it comes to Economics stuff and the inquiry in regards to the Banco Espírito Santo fallout).

edited 24th Nov '15 8:50:49 AM by Quag15

Actually, our president also can deny laws to become real. It's supposed to be a safeguard. Therefore I don't think that the concept in itself is that stupid.

edited 24th Nov '15 11:21:12 AM by Swanpride

Let's see this new cabinet:

For the first time, a black woman has become a minister in Portugal (in this case, she's the minister of defence). She's non-partisan, which is a good thing.

(Btw, António Costa, the new prime minister, descends from Goans (as in, from Goa, India)

She seems to be fairly competent, especially in the area of corruption (e.g. her role in the huge cases that dealt with corruption in the Navy).

The minister of Finance, Mário Centeno, has been a consultor in the Bank of Portugal since last year, and a doctorate from Harvard in Economics. He was the leader of the team which elaborated the macroeconomic program for the PS and was in the negotiations between the left-wing parties.

The minister of Internal Administration, Constança Urbano de Sousa, was part of the Portuguese representation in the EU, and has a lot of experience with matters related to Schengen, police coordination, migration and refugee policies, and so forth.

On the bad side, however: we have some folks who came from the governments of Guterres, and more importantly, from Sócrates (which means they might be connected to his group/"cult"). Augusto Santos Silva is now part of a "tough nucleus" (not sure how to translate 'núcleo duro' well) in regards to political coordination, since he's now the minister of Foreign Affairs.

Other members who were part of Sócrates' government are: Pedro Marques (now the minister of Planning and Infrastructure), Manuel Heitor (now Minister of Science, Technology and Upper Education)^note he's the least worst of the bunch (though I could be wrong), since he was responsible for a progressive increase in public and private activities related to Science and Technology across the country and one or another guy who's less important in the grand scheme of things.

The minister of Education, Tiago Rodrigues, worked until very recently in Cancer Research UK (Cambridge, to be more precise). he does not have significant experience in this area (or even in politics itself), which is concerning.

And then we have the Minister of Culture, João Soares, son of Mário Soares. Dude is as much of an expert in culture as I am in Economics (meaning:n00b), and is a political snake. Since his father has good relations with Sócrates, and has now entered into a senile phase (old age doesn't forgive), I can see this ministry continuing to be the shitty ministry it has always been.

I still have to research some of the other names.

In short: we have some inexperienced guys, a couple of good ones, and some guys who are clearly there for the "tachos" (Jonnas will get this).

edited 24th Nov '15 11:37:07 AM by Quag15

Would "inner circle" be a good translation of "nucleo duro," or am I way off base?

Hard core (adjective and noun, not "hardcore") is what I would translate it as.

Septimus' translation is the more accurate (or closest) one.

Francisca van Buren sounds promising. Always nice to see ministers that have actual experience in the field they're supposed to govern. Good to see minority representation, too.

Tiago Rodrigues is a weird choice. As far as I see, he doesn't seem to have experience in education, but he didn't seem to get there through connections either. I wonder what the reasoning behind the decision was (the fact that he's young, maybe?)

Lol João Soares He looks like nepotism personified.

The "tachos" guys still leave me wary of this cabinet, but it seems decent, at least.

edited 24th Nov '15 1:37:08 PM by JonnasN

I agree. Also, it's Van Dunem.

Anyway, some more updates: First, a minor one. For the first time, we have a visually handicapped secretary of State (for the Inclusion of Handicapped People).

Now, a major one. António Costa became incumbent. Our mummy of a president immediately emphasized that he wouldn't abdicate (yes, he used the word abdicate) any of his powers in his speech (namely, that he can veto anything the government proposes) and maintained his skepticism towards the parliamentary agreement amongst the left-wing parties, while Costa said that the government [politically] answers first and foremost to the Parliament. Therefore, there won't be any "honeymoon" of sorts between these two.

The president also, as usual, mentioned the importante of "the trust coming from the financial markets and foreign investment". A small fearmongering tactic, I assume.

Meanwhile, the minor party of the former government coalition, CDS, rejects any form of "vanguardism or social experimentalism".

Today, the debate centered around the long-term regaining of the wages in the public sector (iirc).

I'll post something else in the Economics thread or the Debt thread about the possible new fiscal measures.

edited 26th Nov '15 3:38:42 PM by Quag15

Gee, Cavaco, how nice of you to remind me of how petty politics can be. Luckily, he won't last much longer.

Well, that was embarrassing.

So, if I read this right, Portugal's government is deadlocked between branches (like the US) until the next election, which hopefully will remove your current lame duck and replace him with someone coalition-approved?

edited 26th Nov '15 5:26:16 PM by Ramidel

Yeah I read somewhere Portugal was considered semi-Presidential but the way it's being described here sounds more like a straight up Parliamentary system.

Near as I can tell, Portugal's President theoretically has authority on par with the French President but in practice is expected to avoid using said power. But, due to the fact that his party in opposition, the current President has decided to break with convention and use the Presidential veto.

The former government coalition is finished, said the former Prime Minister.

I'm guessing the major party of the coalition (PSD) wants to turn towards the center, since the minor party (CDS) pushed things a bit too much to the right (while also being the target of news due to its leader's involvement in the case of the German submarines).

Meanwhile, it's not so grim up north.

Norway launches campaign to give Finland a mountain

Even if we don't get it, it's the thought that counts.

With 95% of the votes counted, here are the results of the general elections in Spain (including the number of seats they won or loss from the previous elections):

PP - 28.7% - 122 seats (they lost 65 seats)

PSOE - 22.1% - 91 seats (they lsot 19 seats)

Podemos - 20.6% - 69 seats (they won 68 seats)

C's (Ciudadamos) - 13.9% - 40 seats (they had no seats whatsoever, since they didn't contest in the last elections)

IU-UP (aka Popular Unity) - 3.7% - 2 seats (they lost 9 seats)

Big win for Podemos (and also for C's, to a certain extent). Could we see a coalition or a general agreement between PSOE and Podemos (which would continue the wave of left-wing parties being on the rise, as we've seen here in Portugal and in Greece)?

Wouldn't PP get first shot, as the party with the most seats?

Yes. However, I think something similar to what happened here in Portugal could happen there (unless their constitution forbids it).

Spain's current political situation is remarkably familiar with Portugal's, to be honest.

Weird, leftist-domimated coalition governments seem to be a thing in Southern Europe right now.

edited 20th Dec '15 4:00:24 PM by LogoP

Well, those are the countries suffering most of the ill effects of 2008 crisis and the Eurozone's response to said crisis. So it's not that odd.

@Quag15: The numbers seem really tight, though I'm not sure which parties are likely to ally (except that I don't see PSOE or Podemos ally with PP). Also, there seems to be an even total number of seats (324), which just seems weird.

Don't most parliaments have an even number of seats?