The Arab Spring

It will certainly accelerate things if that's the case. I think they understand the capacity of the mainstream parties to dither endlessly, whether that tendency is maliciously intended as a way of preserving the status quo or simply due to incompetence.

Militia integration is a common demand for rebel movements who find that the cost of anything other than absolute victory is that their rank and file end up unemployed. Such demands are made so that Houthi membership will *allow* their leaders to negotiate a peace, and not merely break away to continue having a job.

The BBC has been inside Kobane — It's been totally devastated.

Makes one wonder, was this a sort of cornerstone battle? As in, was this a real depletion of morale and strength for Da'esh, did this battle break them in the immediate region, or will this be what to expect in every town of this size and larger, regardless of its strategic value?

ISIS isn't stupid, although there could be a propaganda value to assaulting any and every town on the borders of their territory with equal abandon, to create the idea of Implacable Man, writ large, but they also have to be really hard up for resources by now, especially with the Coalition blasting anything large enough to hit from the sky.

edited 2nd Feb '15 10:42:18 AM by Ogodei

And if they keep losing publicly that will definitely cut down on their recruiting efforts.

Only if there is a viable alternative for those with extremist/Sunni nationalist viewpoints. Only thing I can think of is the Nusra Front or the Nashqabandi Order....

Short of those, sheer momentum will keep Da'esh going til they're defeated I think.

edited 2nd Feb '15 1:19:41 PM by FFShinra

So the Houthis have set the deadline to Wednesday. And from news reports, there are three choices: A presidential council to take the place of the presidency, populated by members of the major parties (so, basically, a sort of politburo), status quo ante (which the Houthi reject since they call it, not without justification, just a continuation of the corruption from before, though I assume Saleh is in favor of this since his people hold the levers) are the main two with a compromise option being simply that Ansarullah becomes the majority party in the parliament.

The third option, if nothing above can be agreed to, is that the Houthis throw out everything and start from scratch, constitution and all. In essence, build a completely new state. The other parties, especially in the south, do not support this. I have to wonder if the Houthis are going to suggest a seperation just so the southerners can get off their backs...

Foreign pressure will be pouring in to make some unity solution work if the status quo can't.

Going back to North Yemen and South Yemen, hey? (Even if the borders will become different and there will be enough animosity around for decades)

The way the Houthis are gearing up, it seems the borders will be about the same, since they're only targetting governorates that used to belong to Sana'a before unification. The only real question mark among them is Taiz.

They tried that earlier and it didn't work because none of the promises were implemented (and didn't need to be because the GPC held all the parliamentary cards). You can't have a unity government unless you elect a new parliament, and the sheer violence will prevent that.

edited 4th Feb '15 7:50:18 AM by FFShinra

And the South won't do its part by going back to Communism.

What's all this about Egyptian judges putting 230 people who rallied against Mubarak in prison?

Remind me of that case where a few hundred people received a capital sentence for killing one police officer.

Egypt's government has to make it clear that that little wave of democracy that toppled Mubarak is over and business as usual is back on.

Counter-revolution 101.

I am glad that the Egyptian government learned their lesson? ?_?

Apparently, our new king favored Morsi over Sissi back when King Abdullah threw all his support behind the latter so soon after the June 30 coup happened. Only time will tell if he still holds such a preference and will act upon it now that he's holding the reins of the kingdom.

Probably too late to stop the Field Marshal with political pressure now. Maybe convince him to show some leniency by commuting a few sentences but that's about it. Only thing that can stop the current Egyptian regime (short of foreign intervention that isn't going to happen) is the general public turning on the government again (quite possible if the economy doesn't pick up) and that might just give us another Syria at worst.

I don't see any change happening to Egypt so long as it has its crusade in Libya to deal with. The Saudis know Da'esh has a presence in Derna now, and Egypt/Algeria are the only ones in the area with the will and expertise to fight them.

... Wait, what? Since when did they manage to reach the Levantine coast and get all the way to Libya?

A couple of existing terrorist organizations and militias in Libya and the Sinai Peninsula have pledged allegiance to Daesh recently.

This.

Some news from Yemen. Deadline passed, but they're still talking. In the meanwhile however, the Houthi have shuttered a newspaper critical to them, AQAP has called the Houthi as "American agents"...and it seems most parties, including one of the Hirak factions, have agreed to the Presidential Council to govern Yemen for a year while they untangle the mess.

It will have five members and will be chaired by Ali Nasser Mohammed, a former president of South Yemen. Not yet finalized however.

Islah is still said to be considering it, but the Yemeni Socialist Party (the former ruling party of South Yemen) has approved of it.

[1]

The Houthis have dissolved the Parliament. A 151-member presidential council has replaced the organ. The Popular Committees will put in place a 551-member parliament, according to AP. The New York Times, however, says the presidential council is a five member committee (still reportedly to be led by Ali Nasir Muhammad) and will be in place for two years as an interrim government, though they give the same numbers of 551 for the new parliament, to be chosen by a "revolutionary committee" led by Muhammad Ali al-Houthi, a relative of Abdulmalik al-Houthi.

No timetable for elections and no one knows what will happen to Hadi as yet.

I know that things are a bit different, but, for some reason, this reminds me of the French Revolution, with the 'revolutionary committee', the ousting of Hadi, and the Houthis now being the main ones calling the shots (which makes me wonder when will they split in numerous political factions). Am I wrong?

probably not. The alliance between the Houthis and Saleh was so obviously Enemy Mine, there will have to be a reckoning between the two. Other than that, dunno enough about the French Revolution to say.

That said, they might wait until Yemen either splits or turns into a confederation (seems to be the only two paths available at the moment) so that they can determine who rules the north once and for all.