The Arab Spring

Worth noting as well that "in collusion with Iran" does not equal "bad".

It might; if it means they're primarily working to achieve the geopolitical aims of a foreign power.

Again, proof is needed. Just because they're Shiite doesn't mean they listen to Tehran or Qom. Especially since the Fivers are closer to Sunni theology than the Twelvers are...

And geopolitically, these guys used to be allies of Riyadh.

edited 16th Oct '14 7:46:38 AM by FFShinra

An article on the Libyan government Three years after Western military intervention helped topple Col Muammar Gaddafi, many believe Libya is rapidly turning into a failed state. There are two rival governments, and the parliament elected in June has been forced to flee from hostile militias - to a grey concrete 1970s hotel near the Egyptian border.

In Tobruk, to be exact — does that make the Libyan Government the new "Rats of Tobruk"?

Was wondering when someone would make the connection. Before this, its the only other time I've even heard of that place.

Speaking of Yemen from earlier, it seems today was a HUGE day. Houthis have seized Ibb AND Hodeidah. I think Taiz is the only city in the former North not under Houthi control or contention.

They've also seized a border post along their border with Saudia.

AND they're clashing with AQ, who have also seized a town.

Southerners are getting more riled up too.

In short, guys, Yemen just blew up.

So, what will happen to Yemen as a whole from now on? A balkanization, a full-on civil war, full control by the Houthis?

Not full control. Best those guys can hope for is former north yemen. Beyond that, they've got zero support.

I predict both balkanization AND civil war though.

Wonderful. (sigh)

edited 16th Oct '14 2:41:57 PM by Quag15

And even if they dodge that they still have to contend with the country being economically non-viable.

What is the Yemeni military doing?

Loosing

Falling apart. The military has been splintered since before the Arab Spring, when Saleh tried to kill Mohsen by lying to the Saudi Air Force about who they were targetting in an incident during the Saada War (he told them they were targetting Houthis when they were, in fact, targetting Mohsen's camp. Thankfully the Saudis saw through the rouse and didn't become Saleh's patsy, but Mohsen came to know of it, which is why Saleh couldn't rely on him to put down the protests in the first place). First it was just Saleh's faction and Mohsen's faction. Then Saleh's faction splintered between his loyalists and pro-Spring units and Mohsen's units. Even the Houthis have a faction in the military, either loyal to their creed or loyal to the idea that they are a viable alternative (most of these guys, unsurprisingly, come from the former pro-Spring faction).

More importantly, the current president doesn't have a faction of his own. He has no personality cult, no tribal ties, no charisma, nothing. He's as I've said before, just an administrator installed by the GCC-UN to maintain the status quo.

EDIT-

Wondering where he is now, actually. It's possible he's still in Sanaa in whatever part of the city he still holds, but more likely he's in Taiz.

EDIT 2-

It should also be noted that they are facing very little resistance from the uniformed military and police. Some say this is Saleh's doing, but if he had that much power, he'd have never left office in the first place.

edited 16th Oct '14 5:18:53 PM by FFShinra

Yemen news: Seems the local army commander in Tai'zz is gonna resist if the Houthi come there, which is just as well: if they lose it, the regime is not merely powerless, it's gone.

Libya news: An overview of exactly why Egypt (with the UAE) is launching forays into Libya. I suspect, once Syria burns itself out, this will be the big focus given how many powers are involved in this one already.

edited 17th Oct '14 5:31:30 PM by FFShinra

There were clashes in Ibb today, ending only when the provincial governor set up a deal between the Houthis and the tribal militias, saying both sides had to stay out of the city and that the official Yemeni security forces had to control the situation, not militias. Mind, less than 24 hours ago, there was another ceasefire that had failed so who knows if this one will work out.

Also, the Houthis took out an AQAP chapter in a village in Bayda governorate.

The new interior and defense ministers of Iraq have been appointed So the unity government is finally complete.

More government buildings in Sana'a taken. This time the Houthi seized the governor of Sana'a's house and forced him to resign. They've also seized the town of Yarim south of the capital, which lies along the strategic north-south road between Sana'a and Aden.

They also blew up the house of another Islah politician.

edited 19th Oct '14 9:47:11 AM by FFShinra

So the UN buys the Saleh funding Houthi theory enough that it's placed him and his son (former head of his Republican Guard and now ambassador to the UAE who supposedly helped out the Houthis in this blitz), as well as the Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi and his brother, Abdulkhaleq al-Houthi, and the Houthi field commander, Abu Ali al-Hakem.

On Twitter, it seems some people think President Hadi should be added to the list, probably because some also think he may have had a hand in this.

EDIT-

In related news, it seems President Hadi is now courting factions of the Hirak movement to both weaken southern seperatist demands and also create a power base in the south (he himself is a southerner, in fact). Seperatists on the other hand are waiting to see if the Houthi will be any more willing to negotiate than the previous regimes in Sana'a before they throw their lot in with them, which explains why the central government still has nominal control over Aden and the Hadhramaut.

edited 20th Oct '14 6:22:09 PM by FFShinra

Libya's elected government has now allied itself with General Haftar.

A cousin of Gaddafi wishes to take part in proposed Libyan peace talks. He's even got the hair...

Wasn't there conflict beitween an Islamist-dominated parliamentary "old guard" and and a recently-elected, liberal-dominated parliamentary "new guard"?

edited 20th Oct '14 9:11:43 PM by MarqFJA

still going. Thats why the new guard have allied with Haftar.

And fallen right into the Egypt-Algeria bloc.

Le sigh.

The last bastion of old school Nasserist Secular Presidential Autocrats.

Cheers for the update a couple of pages back, Shinra. I thought I had posted to thank you for it but apparently I hadn't so I'm doing it now.

This thread is great for keeping up-to-date on the Spring and its aftermath, and only because of people like Shinra and Marq who post about the things they read that the rest of us might miss.

D'aww, shucks. [blush]