The Arab Spring

Which is ultimately the same thing. They're disobeying orders, meaning they're committing Stupid Evil level atrocities that further tarnish Al Qaeda's image to impersonable believers.

edited 3rd Feb '14 2:46:29 AM by Sledgesaul

You know that Al-Qaida got issues when its own branches suffer from infighting among themselves.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.

I find that to be a good thing, though. Shows how much turmoil that's raging around there.

edited 3rd Feb '14 3:14:11 AM by Sledgesaul

It also means they'll be more dependant on the al-Nusra Front for their operations in Syria and Lebanon, so this may not be a completely good thing. Though its fun to see al-Baghdadi have a flame lit under his ass...

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Not to mention Al Qaeda is more like a popular/memetic brand name than an actual organization. Though AQ leaders may or may not be trying to change that perception.

Lotta movement in Yemen. Houthi rebels have seized more villages north of the capital. In the capital itself there were several major explosions. This just one week after the national conference agreed to a federalized Yemen (without, of course, stating how many federal units there would be and where)

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

@Sledgesaul: Not necessarily. It appears to be a simple power struggle in the ranks, not a reaction to Stupid Evil actions on ISIS' part.

As far as I can see, the only thing AQ is objecting to ISIS over is how ISIS is trying to expand its own power and take over other AQ groups in the region, when AQ HQ told them to let each group operate independently. That's simply not the same thing as you're implying.

The Houthis are Shi'ites that are allegedly receiving Iranian assistance. How much of Yemen do they control now?

Houthis are Zaidi Shiites who support the old Imamate that used to exist before Nasserists overthrew the Imam-King in a brutal civil war ("Egypt's Vietnam") back in the 60s. With the remnants of that Nasserist government barely holding anything together, they basically want to retake former North Yemen (They've made an alliance with the Hirak to support their secession of South Yemen).

As such, they only control maybe a tenth of Yemen as a whole, but they control about a fourth of former North Yemen....and they're closing in on Sana'a.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Hmm, they can destabilize Yemen given a few more funds. The Sepah/Pasdaran/Revolutionary Guards are certainly the type up pull a CIA move by funding the Houthis against a rival government.

By the way, the NYT published an article that details how children were abused by Assad and the Islamists. Warning: do not read if you anger easy. http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/02/05/world/middleeast/at-least-10000-children-killed-in-syria-un-estimates.html?_r=0&referrer=

Supposedly Iran already is, but I don't buy it. Even with all these gains, they're still relatively isolated. As far as I know, they've not taken any coastline and they certainly have no control of the air, so I dunno how Iran even gets in contact with them, let alone helps them.

And yeah, been hearing about the children for the last couple of weeks. This civil war is already up there among some of the most brutal conflicts in all history.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

That's 'cause Iran isn't helping the Houthis. The head of Yemen is just a paranoid shrill who blames others for his failures.

Syria is falling apart. I really can't see peace anytime soon. Assad won't go, no matter what. If you want real regime change, real democracy, fund some opposition parties against Assad in the election later this year.

How are you so sure?

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Certainly Iran is sympathetic. I just dunno how they give material support.

As for the head of Yemen, it depends on whether you mean Saleh (who really was/is a paranoid shill trying to get more money to keep himself in power) and Hadi, whose trying to keep the government running and is negotiating to keep the peace between Salafists and Houthis.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Through black-market smuggling, how else? It's not like Yemen's borders don't have a lot of holes in them, security wise.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

I would assume in any country in this kind of condition, it's more like the holes have some borders in them.

Except the country at the other side of said border is Saudi Arabia, which has walled off the border from the north. And between Houthi territory and the Omani border (where Iranian products probably could get through due to Muscat's True Neutral status) is the Hadramaut and Salafist/AQ militias. Sure, it's possible to get through there, but not often and not on any meaningful schedule.

I personally buy the idea that the Houthis have convinced some of the other, smaller tribes to back them, especially since the heads of the larger tribal confederations are either bought by the hated Saleh or, because of Saleh's old patronage system, spend more time in the capital than with the tribes they supposedly lead. It's possible Hirak is throwing some support their way too.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Don't restrict yourself to land borders. Aden is one of the most important ports in the region, and has been for well over a thousand years at least.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

Who's Hirak?

And Saudi Arabia decided on land borders with Yemen? I forgot whether it was with Yemen or UAE that there was some sort of border unclarity, causing it to be not delineated with a line on my old globe...

edited 6th Feb '14 8:11:50 PM by GlennMagusHarvey

US Secretary of State John Kerry has condemned the use of barrel bombs in the Syrian city of Aleppo by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad.

Egypt's military has denied that its chief of staff, Field Marshal Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, told a Kuwaiti newspaper he would run for president.

Russia is opposing a UN Security Council resolution demanding greater humanitarian access in Syria to those in urgent need of food and medical supplies.

edited 6th Feb '14 8:20:57 PM by DeviantBraeburn

Everything is Possible. But some things are more Probable than others. JEBAGEDDON 2016

Pretty much everything in the Rub al-Khali area is set up like that. No-one really cared to define the borders.

Hirak is the southern seperatist group. They basically want to restore former South Yemen's independence. Together with the Houthis, they have the current regime sandwiched.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Sissi need not run for office. He's already the kingmaker there.

Also, Putin being an asshole again. No surprise there. What's the story behind the alliance between Syria and Russia?

Their relations started in 1971, but became stronger in the wake of the 2008 South Ossetia War. The relations between Russia and the ruling Bashar family also go back to the 70's.

edited 6th Feb '14 9:16:05 PM by Quag15