North Korea

That's a bit of a clickbait headline; they didn't explicitly state the withdrawal of US forces was a precondition for denuclearization as they've claimed in the past, but included in their preconditions a vaguely worded "End to hostilities" which they could easily twist into a demand for troop withdrawal.

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2142499/what-will-happen-japanese-abducted-north-korea-1970s-and-why

South China Morning Post is running an article on the fate of any Japanese who weren't released by North Korea.

I'm still pretty suspicious of all the moves the North is pulling.

I know the feeling I keep waiting for something to happen.

A pessimist in a different forum:

The caveat to that is that US will simply not agree to withdraw or significantly reduce military presence without seeing tangible results in the elephant in the peninsula (nukes). We're not even at at the level of partial results achieved through negotiating with the previous Kim yet.

Kim Jong Un has stated that North Korea no longer needs nuclear or missile tests, and is going to close one of the nuclear test sites.

Still not letting my guard down.

It's conceivable that North Korea intends to have a nuclear posture similar to Japan, where it doesn't have nuclear weapons but is capable of an extremely fast breakout if threatened.

edited 20th Apr '18 5:24:02 PM by CaptainCapsase

I'll point out that no test sites isn't the same as no nukes. They have working nuclear weapons and working missiles, they're just switching from testing to production. Production can be done "underground" in unmarked warehouses and complexes.

Yeah this isn’t “we don’t need nukes”, it’s “we are happy with the nuke tech we have”.

This is also more or less perfectly in line with North Korea's typical modus operandi; play nice when things get to hot, then back out and go back to the usual saber rattling.

Though perhaps things are different this time; some observers have suggested their nuclear program is a conscious effort to emulate China, which normalized relations with the west and underwent rapid economic development after it acquired a nuclear deterrent.

edited 21st Apr '18 6:54:54 AM by CaptainCapsase

Yayz, the chances of second Korean War during my service has decreased. Somewhat.

Still, get ready for Tuesday!

I'll believe it when they dismantle all of the guns they have aimed at Seoul and collapse their tunnels and halt their nuclear program. Oh, and it'd be great if they stopped trying to hack accounts and stop pushing crystal meth.

Honestly, if they switched to being a full narco state, they'd probably be able to dramatically improve their standard of living and GDP.

They should stop half assing it.

edited 22nd Apr '18 5:47:04 AM by CharlesPhipps

Realistically, the best we can hope for is a DPRK with no operational nuclear weapons but rapid breakout capabilities pursuing the Chinese/Vietnamese model of economic liberalization while retaining single-party authoritarian rule. More pessimistically, this is just going to be the same old story as previous rounds of negotiations with North Korea where it falls apart as soon as they decide things have cooled down enough.

edited 23rd Apr '18 5:18:46 PM by CaptainCapsase

I don’t see North Korea giving up the nukes it has, maybe genuinely halting development of new nukes or delivery system, but giving up the existing ones? I don’t see it happening.

Yeah, you can count on North Korea giving up their nukes exactly never now that they have them. As we speak they’re probably producing Hwasong-15s as fast as they can

It looks like Trump has confirmed that he and US want North to denuclearize, not merely stop its tests, although he has complimented Kim in a diplomatic way.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20180426_16/

Chinese scientists have confirmed that an underground nuke test site meant for decommissioning is made unsafe due to the mountain collapsing.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-43862042/south-korean-youths-we-re-too-busy-for-reunification

A BBC Video on future unification. Although more of the younger Koreans are having doubts that it'll happen in their lifetime.

edited 25th Apr '18 9:04:31 PM by Ominae

Kim Jong-un is set to become the first North Korean leader to cross into South Korean territory since the end of the Korean War in 1953, as final details are put in place for the summit. This strikes me as a pretty big deal even if he is still staying in the demilitarized zone.

edited 26th Apr '18 7:38:38 AM by CDRW

Breaking news is out tha KJU has crossed the DMZ to start talks with President Moon.

Well regardless of why things are calming down, it would be a positive change. Normalized relations could open up doors that were forcibly closed in the past.

News say the two announced that they're finally gonna sign the peace treaty after 65 years.

US and China still need to greenlight it themselves.

Specifically, a peace treaty and an agreement to a phased process of denuclearization.

This really came out of nowhere.

Xi Jiping must have really scared the crap out of Kim Jong-Un.