North Korea

Triv: I would honestly pay money to see what happens if someone manages that.

So the, yet of the they do not have the capability, yet is here.

At this point, the someone will have to act soon is going to be someone will have to act now.

I'm grateful that per my earlier question that the allies, if not the allies then America, if not America then Trump would not go against his advisors and bomb North Korea over this. But I honestly genuinely believe they hope and would like for that to happen. I swear to whoever or whatever you believe that Kim Jong Un is trying to dare and bait a confrontation. Given how radical and weird their regime is would that be a fair comment to make?

I don't think so. The problem is that they know a war is considered costly, and that the regimes survival is dependent on a strong deterrent. So they won't stop, they have no reason to do so.

edited 3rd Sep '17 2:32:13 AM by TerminusEst

If not all out war then maybe a Batman Gambit or mutually assureed devastation in that if America or the allies can be made to look like the aggressors then North Korea can make them look bad. Would that at least be a fair call?

I suppose. I think that's going to be inevitable with China and Russia blaring those accusations across the globe.

I would argue that Middle Eastern Muslim extremists had done something similar in that if Trump, Obama, Bush, even Clinton had to go to such extremes then it could be shown that it is no different than committing acts of terror. I think Kim Jong and North Korea are certainly capable of doing the same thing but I guess the big question is whether that is their game here.

Xi Jinping says a dark shadow looms over the world after years of peace

A telling excerpt...

edited 3rd Sep '17 10:59:40 AM by TerminusEst

He may be an expert in his field, but he clearly has no idea what the hell he's talking about when it comes to Cheeto.

President Trump on Sunday called North Korea’s biggest nuclear test to date “very hostile and dangerous,” but his most significant rhetorical escalation was against South Korea, a close United States ally, which he accused of talking about “appeasement.”

Trump, this is not a time to go against the South Korea government, when its president just became hawkish.

I'm no supporter of appeasing North Korea, but right now South Korea is providing near zero to North. It shouldn't be blamed.

According to the Daily Beast. there is a way to get them to stop. Specifically it involves the US' leverage over China's economy and China's leverage over North Korea. How likely do you think Trump would go through with this course of action?

Trump has the idea of using a global trade embargo and he wants the idea to be raised sooner than later...

Once again, Trump has no idea how economics actually works.

Remember several months ago when he complained about the apparent trade imbalance with China and proposed a trade embargo against them? Little did he realize that the cessation of all trade with China would be a two-way roadblock, which would hurt us more than it would hurt them.

What An Idiot.

Although the effect would indeed be mutual, the last time I saw this discussed in the OTC I heard that it would hurt China more.

edited 3rd Sep '17 7:06:54 PM by Trivialis

It would, but outside of an actual war ending trade with China would be near impossible, you just see goods made in China be sold on in other countries who'd then sell the products to the US.

In the event of an actual big war than China is going to see all it southbound trade end, which would cripple it.

The impact on the US would mainly be an increase int he price of electronics, clothing and other small cheaply made good.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/north-korea-missile-test-pyongyang-101748900.html

There's a piece on this broadcaster from the KCNA.

Yonhap reporting that S. Korea detects indications of N. Korea's ballistic missile launch preparations.

lovely. So do we have 10 seconds left on the Doomsday Clock or 5?

Pagetopper...terrific.

edited 4th Sep '17 1:03:15 AM by MorningStar1337

I've read somewhere that this could be a case of Kim and his ilk testing the rational (insofar as survival of his regime is required) deterrent theory associated with nuclear stuff between countries as far as he can so he does not get ousted, suffers a coup or gets invaded, Iraq-style. In other words, what may seem like a madman to most of us here in the West is merely a calculated ploy. What do you all think?

Kim and his ilk are playing the most high-stakes game of Chicken ever.

Honestly pushing for how far he get away with on his deterrence plan is being very risky.

At this point, with him pushing it further and further, there is the risk of the Russia/China and/or US/Japan/SK engage in a direct intervention in the country over worries of the regime collapsing but with nuclear capabilities powerful enough to cause heavy damage to East Asian nations, in case someone in the North Korean regime decides they have nothing more to lose.

There is also the worries that the constant tests and increasingly capabilities of the North Korean nuclear arsenal push everyone else to a point where sitting on the table is no longer an option and they will be pressured to act before the nuclear capabilities are expanded beyond containment.

Testing deterrence seems too dangerous to be a rationale when failure would mean the end of the regime.

But acting this way so that he doesn't get ousted internally may make sense.

Thing is North Korea's assumption that the other side is rational may itself not be rational.

Plus they're rolling the dice every time, if they accidentally kill someone that could mean the end of the regime.

Agreed. The "we're both sane men" theory doesn't apply when Trump is one of those men...

Putin condemned the secret test done by the DPRK, but called the rest of the world to use diplomacy since the North would not give up the nukes.

Story was released by the BBC.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20170906_04/

NHK reports that the US should expect more "gifts" from the DPRK.

edited 5th Sep '17 8:22:25 PM by Ominae