North Korea

Bro you gotta give me articles on this stuff.

I wanna share this information around.

My whole twitter feed is currently people who saw the missile, people who say they need a shower after seeing the missile.

People worried about trumps response to the missile.

Annnnd people complaining about how the alarm is pointless because unless your house has a nuclear shelter your boned any way.

Incase your wondering what the Japanese response is at a personal level.

@Garcon

- Sorry. News just broke out on TV and stuff.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41078187

Tokyo issued warnings via phone SMS messages.

Why pick Hokkaido, though? Don't the Ainu have it rough enough, already? <_<

Because the coalition war game exercises are going on in that general area and Kim Jong Un has seemingly set himself and North Korea on a game of chicken with Trump and the US thinking America will blink first.

Without the slightest hint of mockery or sarcasm this is a very scary time, and I think it would be pertinent to ask a few questions.

• North Korea whether it be under Kim Jong Ill, Kim Jong Un, whoever the great and glorious leader immortal forever ruler is, has shown time and time again they've gone too far. Will this be the final straw?

• If so could we expect a coalition to either bomb the country into the stone age or send in ground troops? If bombing are we talking aircraft or missiles? Is a nuclear option on the table?

• If not a coalition then will the US and Russia or at least Trump and Putin go anyway whether or not there is a joint strike force or UN Security Finding? What options might they use? Can they be talked out of something that would be a war crime and cost them their leadership? Is there any possibility that either will not think about or care about what the consequences will be and act just a little crazy?

No to all (with a resounding Atomic F-Bomb no for the last one).

While Putin is the wild card and Russia does share a small land border with North Korea, it's all about China. They share the largest land border with North Korea and because of their own population of ethnic Koreans living in the region they're the ones who would get swamped by refugees. As such they're the ones effectively vetoing any re-opening of hostilities on the Korean peninsula. And China has made it clear that will send in the People's Liberation Army to support North Korea if South Korea or the US makes the first move.

As such there is no way for any other country to intervene in North Korea unless the Kim Dynasty is stupid enough to make the first move (which is not beyond the realm of possibility given the current state of geopolitics). Similarly if anyone other than the DPRK uses nukes on the Korean peninsula is likely to draw a nuclear response from China. If only because any fallout that heads North or West is likely to fall in Chinese territory. And what happens afterwards is World War III

The only way a US and/or South Korean invasion will be if North Korea unambiguously makes the first move. And that's going to have to be an attack on a South Korean or Japanese population centre, nuclear or otherwise. At which point China slams the border shut and stations a massive number of troops along the Yalu River while frantic back room talks take place between Beiing, Seoul and Washington about what happens afterwards take place.

The US and the South would likely need backing from the international community pitching in just like last time. Only hopefully this time with the help of China.

I don't think NK are THAT stupid. The missile was probably meant to land in the Sea of Japan as usual on their war with that sea but way WAY missed its target.

edited 29th Aug '17 2:58:55 AM by Memers

Also, if NK was aiming to hit a population center, they'd have fired more than one missile and would be shelling SK right now.

Might explain why they haven't issued any statements about this. If this was a fuckup, heads are (literally?) rolling in Pyongyang.

edited 29th Aug '17 3:13:35 AM by M84

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/28/north-korea-fires-missile-japan-warns-citizens-take-precautions/

More news on it.

Here's an interesting response to it:

North Korea accused the United States of driving the Korean peninsula towards "an extreme level of explosion" following its aggressive missile test.

Han Tae Song, North Korea's ambassador to the UN in Geneva, also declared that Pyongyang was justified in responding with "tough counter-measures".

The envoy was speaking after his country's latest test firing of a ballistic missile, which flew over Japan, but did not directly refer to the launch.

"Now that the U.S. has openly declared its hostile intention towards the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, by waging aggressive joint military exercises despite repeated warnings... my country has every reason to respond with tough counter-measures as an exercise of its right to self defence," Mr Han told the UN Conference on Disarmament.

PS - Chinese Foreign Ministry blames South Korea and the US form making Pyongyang do the missile test.

edited 29th Aug '17 4:04:52 AM by Ominae

This seems like the worst possible choice for North Korea. They just keep running tensions up and up, and that can't go on forever. Every time something like this happens, it pushes North Korean war and reconstruction from "Things people would prefer not happen" to "Things that sound better than what's going on."

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-41081936/residents-in-hokkaido-and-tokyo-fear-a-north-korea-attack

BBC videos of Japanese being scared of a ICBM attack and their resentment over the sanctions not totally working.

NK complains about these joint exercises all the time and nothing has come of them from either side: China has to know their protest rings hollow?

China will take just about any excuse to avoid actually having to do anything stronger than verbal condemnation of North Korea. At least until they can shore up their border to keep out North Korean refugees.

I was reading yesterday about how South Korean officials were anticipating a sixth nuclear test... but later North Korea instead conducted a missile test within the same day and threw us off.

I was thinking that I honestly don't see the North Korean regime surviving past Kim Jong-un. The current regime, whether or not Kim is the one actually in control, refuses to budge or negotiate. It's hard to see it doing worse than this.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-29/kim-says-latest-missile-test-was-prelude-to-containing-guam

KCNA released a state from Jong-un, mentioning that the ICBM missile that flew over Hokkaido is a show of force that can used to potentially contain Guam.

'All Options Are On The Table': Unease Reigns After North Korean Missile Test

A key takeaway: South Korean president Moon Jae-in, already telling the ROK military to toughen up before the missile launch over Hokkaido, retaliated by bombing a region near North Korea to show what South Korea can do to it.

The new South Korean administration, which at times has broadcast its desire for diplomatic talks, sent a markedly more hawkish message after the launch, promptly releasing a video purportedly showing its own missile tests last week.

And mere hours after the North's test, the South's military reportedly announced that it had sent four fighter jets on a live-bombing drill simulating an attack on Kim Jong Un's regime. They dropped eight 1-ton bombs on a hillside, demonstrating their capacity to bust underground bunkers.

It seems that Moon is no Chamberlain (and even he declared war), and I'm honestly glad for that.

This time around, yes. I was talking about a hypothetical future situation.

That being said it does raise an interesting grey area. If one of these missile tests does break up and result in civilian casualties Japan or South Korea (or given the state of the US administration, America) may feel obligated to respond... but China may want to stick with 'tragic accident' angle and feel obligated to intervene. Which, while a worst case scenario but given the reliability of the DPRK's missiles is perhaps even more plausible than a deliberate action and a reason why these tests are a bad idea.

Lavrov via the Foreign Ministry called out the American military for its activities in Souh Korea, which forced the North...

edited 30th Aug '17 5:41:53 PM by Ominae

The US and South Korea are doing their own show of force; flying B-1s, F-35s and F-15s over tge Korean peninsula.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/politics/us-bombers-korean-peninsula/index.html

North Korea now claims that it has a hydrogen bomb small enough to fit onto a missile.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/02/asia/north-korea-kim-jong-un-nuke-lab-visit/index.html

North Korea: Tremor detected in sign of possible nuclear test

NK says it haa a "major announcement" in literally 10 mintues

It would seem that they have officially announced a successfully hydrogen bomb test.

It's an announcement from the KCNA so it should be taken with a grain of salt, but Japan said it was 10 times as powerful as the previous test.

I'm quite irritated at this. I see literally no redeeming points in the current Kim and his regime, and time and again I feel frustrated that he's hiding in his mansion and the only "diplomat" he's willing to meet in person is Dennis Rodman.

Naysayers (and China) might still say in futility that we need to bring him to the negotiating table. Yeah, I dare you. Bring him personally to the negotiating table in front of South Koreans and let's hear what he has to say to them.

edited 3rd Sep '17 12:09:30 AM by Trivialis