- Confirmed and debunked. Per leaks, both Akechi and Sumire will be DLC characters.
- Official art was leaked for both Akechi and Sumire's appearances in the DLC.
- Partially jossed. A trailer revealed both will make appearances in the DLC.
- Jossed. Akechi is indeed the real one, but only because this game takes place prior to the events of Royal.
- Confirmed by latest Nyahoo News promo. All phantom thieves besides Joker and Morgana will be hit by the Tyrant Marie’s brainwashing power.
- Jossed. Not only does Erina not have a Persona, instead having what's called "Arts" in the place of her Persona, she is Toshiro's Persona, Ernesto.
- Likely jossed. The DLC trailer does not show any signs of Akechi suffering from memory loss.
2. He no longer has Loki because he genuinely let go of his anger. If the game confirms that he is in fact alive, he may have truly decided to face the consequences of his actions upon realizing he didn't actually die, with the gap in his memory being explained as simply a result of being knocked out or Maruki's reality overriding his brain. A possible scenario is that he turned himself in and is serving jail time, but is summoned by the remaining 9 (or 11 if Zenkichi and Sophie show up) thieves, possibly with Sae's aid, because whatever threat they're facing is so great that they truly need his help. Given that this is (allegedly) the last game focusing on the Phantom Thieves, a story of such magnitude isn't at all implausible.
3. It's not the real Akechi. Assuming he is confirmed dead, a cognitive version of him may be summoned to aid the others.
4. Alternatively, Repaint Your Heart is JUST going to be a pack of challenge maps & bonus characters with no story attached, so Atlus just defaulted to the spoiler-less outfit choice.
- Jossed. Translations of the description reveal there is in fact story content.
5. He does wear his Black Mask outfit (or can switch between both), but doesn't don it in the artwork so as to not spoil anything for anyone who happens to see it before finishing the base game.
- All jossed. The reason is that Repaint takes place during the Casino Heist, where they don't even know that Akechi has a second form.
- Jossed. The game takes place at the very end of Royal between Maruki's defeat and Joker's departure, making it before Strikers chronologically. Though the latter's localization removed more overt references to Royal, nothing outright contradicts it, so both fit in the timeline of either vanilla or Royal.
- Likely jossed. Repaint Your Heart seems to occur before Royal.
- Perhaps not jossed - Akechi speaks in the English trailer and is clearly heard talking in the same cold and smug tone he uses in the third semester.
- Still ambiguous, but the most recently released story trailer shows that Akechi still calls Violet "Yoshizawa-san", the name used for her in the short point in the 3rd Semester when Akechi was Navi and she didn't have her codename yet, while she was in her Phantom Thief outfit, making it more likely to be jossed.
- Jossed. It supposedly takes place sometime during Sae's palace but after Yoshizawa awakens.
- Jossed. The base game takes place before Strikers, while the DLC takes place before the events of the base game.
- Likely jossed. The third story trailer shows a scene where, presumably, Toshiro accepts the rebellion within his heart and awakens a Persona.
- Partially confirmed come the full game. The Kingdoms are based on Toshiro's memories and how they affect him in real life.
- Unlikely. The game is developed in Japan so it's unlikely they would dedicate a tribute to an English voice actor. The Japanese voice of Igor died before Persona 5 and they didn't make a tribute to him and Igor was quietly dropped. If no tribute was made to the death of a major characters voice actor It's unlikely they would do so for a character who only appeared in one game. Bit harsh but this it's highly unlikely that this will happen. Billy Kametz was a great VA but Atlus probably isn't going to make any reference to him.
- Toshiro's Awakening will be a repeat of Zenkichi's from Strikers, where the Thieves are cornered/captured, and Toshiro has to go through his own mini stealth mission and, once he arrives to the scene, awakens his Persona, and becomes fully playable. Looking at the trailer, the Thieves are seemingly restrained by some electric chain, making this a likely scenario.
- Toshiro will happen to be with the Thieves as they get put under stress, and the Tyrant will offer him a position on the "winning team" as they'll call it. Joker will get a dialogue option, most likely with both telling Toshiro not to succumb to the Tyrant's will, and Toshiro will reject his proposition, and will awaken his Persona. His last line prior to his Awakening in the trailer was "Big mistake... and I'm going to make it your last!", most likely pertaining towards either capturing the Thieves or the offer of joining with the Tyrants, making this also likely.
- Jossed. Toshiro's Awakening comes from him facing his own Shadow Self, but uniquely, the Persona does not come from his Shadow Self. It actually comes from Erina.
- Jossed. There has been footage of Navi Morgana, as well as a brainwashed Futaba, who aids a brainwashed Ann as part of a mini boss encounter.
- Once again, the most obvious choice would be Navi Crow, considering he already Navi'd in Royal (for like two days but still), and he's the most tactical of the three. It would be a nice choice to switch between his more professional and try-hard-y Prince Crow and his more snarky and aggressive Black Mask Crow, but that might not be possible depending on when this takes place.
- Another choice would just be to have Oracle sucked in later in the story then have her commentate the rest of the battles. It would be a cop-out, and really stupid considering that they (presumably) recorded a bunch of Navi lines from another person, but this is Atlus, they live for stupid ideas.
- A less likely choice, but Mona happening upon the section where they got teleported and getting teleported in himself, and having him commentate. It would be lame, and most people like Oracle's Navi lines better anyways, but it would be fine. Plus, it looks like Mona won't be commentating in the main game anyways, so it would be cool to have some new Monavi lines.
- An even less likely choice, Naviolet. It would be incredibly stupid, and not even make sense since she barely knows how the Metaverse works, but it would be cool AND cute. Plus, Violet barely gets any time as a Thief in Royal, so just give her this one (if she gets picked as Navi).
- The least likely, maybe even impossible choice, but Joker as a Navi would be SO cool. The Heroic Mime actually getting speaking lines with a dialogue box? Awesome. Out of character? Absolutely. Incredibly weird because not a single other protagonist from the previous games has done this? Certainly. Really cool because Joker actually gets to show off his snarky attitude in voiced lines? Yes.
- All jossed. The Navi for Repaint is Luca, a new character.
- The existence of Erina and Toshiro already probably do this, considering they never appear in the part of the base game (and Royal) that takes place after Tactica (unless they die at the end), but there are other possibilities:
- Akechi reveals his Black Mask form during the events of Repaint Your Heart. It's a... very farfetched theory, and it would be a very big Late-Arrival Spoiler that they've managed to actually avoid in the advertisement for this game, and, by this point in the story, Joker would already know that Akechi betrayed/will betray him, but it would make sense. Plus, how else would players be able to use Loki (and by extension, Hereward)?
- Jossed.
- Similar to the above point, Kasumi reveals she's Sumire far earlier, and without any prodding from Maruki. The latest (and last) Nyahoo News shows that everyone still calls her Kasumi, so it would be a fine point. Of course, it's a Trauma Button for her, and it's possible she just straight up won't bring it up at all, but it'd be nice.
- Jossed, but subtle hints are included about Kasumi's true identity.
- Toshiro is elected prime minister rather than Shido. This is from a small tidbit on the Megami Tensei Wiki (right here.) stating that Toshiro is expected to be next prime minister. Considering this game takes place before the end of P5 and presumably prior to Shido's Palace, thanks to Repaint, it's not unlikely.
- Jossed. Not only does Repaint your Heart take place during the Casino heist, but in the ending, Toshiro goes forward with indicting Marie and Yoshiki for their crimes, in the process sacrificing his bid for Prime Minister and leaving him in a position similar to what Yoshida faced in the original game before Joker helped him get reelected to the Diet.
- Akechi reveals his Black Mask form during the events of Repaint Your Heart. It's a... very farfetched theory, and it would be a very big Late-Arrival Spoiler that they've managed to actually avoid in the advertisement for this game, and, by this point in the story, Joker would already know that Akechi betrayed/will betray him, but it would make sense. Plus, how else would players be able to use Loki (and by extension, Hereward)?
- The little egg boy from Royal has not been seen since Royal, and, barring a miniscule piece of dialogue from Strikers that does nothing to affect the story that mentions him, he hasn't been acknowledged. Possible Jose theories include:
- He will appear in the base game. Perhaps as a part of the Velvet Room, perhaps as a part of whatever Mementos we get in this game, but, nonetheless, he appears, and has a similar role to what he did in Royal, hosting a shop and collecting his stamps for a Superboss.
- He will appear, but only in Repaint Your Heart. Since he only had a role in Royal, and Repaint mainly focuses on Royal Trio, it would make some logical sense to appear only in Repaint, still serving the same role of a shop and stamps.
- He appears as a minor character with a relatively small role. Considering Luca's here, and they kinda take up the "cute little character that helps the group out" role (the previous characters in that role were Mona in base P5, Jose in Royal, and Sophia in Strikers), Jose probably doesn't need to do anything here.
- He'll get a small mention, like in Strikers, either in base or Repaint, but other than that, he's not present. Which would be a massive shame, everybody loves egg boy, and there are so many unanswered questions regarding Jose, but they didn't answer any of them in Strikers, they're probably not going to in Tactica.
- All jossed. Jose is nowhere to be seen or mentioned.
- The entire game has the antagonists clearly center on him, and the opening credits feature a scene of him smiling darkly for just a moment. It's possible that because of the life that he’s been leading up to that point, his heart and mind have started to become more and more corrupted and twisted, to the point that he is teetering dangerously far against the line of becoming a Palace Ruler and, therefore, and "evil adult"— which would be especially bad for everyone given that he’s set to become the next prime minister of Japan. Because of this, Mementos decided that it needs to take matters into it's own hands and summons the Phantom Thieves into his heart's world, which is represented by minor "kingdoms" with a minor "Ruler" that are represented by different people in Toshiro's life who had had a hand in him becoming what he was in the present days— whether because they are all actually like that in real life of because they are the twisted representations of what Toshiro's mind has come to view them as over the years either due to anger, arguments, stress, misunderstandings, or miscommunications. The world also took away his memories of his current self to try and make him a bit more receptive to learning all of the lessons that he needed to learn in there to stop himself from making a downward spiral, and also created a cognitive being to help him by acting as his own guide throughout the adventure— this cognitive being is obviously Erina, who is the representation of Toshiro's daughter, someone in his life that is still the single most positive and pure and loving influence to him that he cares about more than anything. As the story goes on, more and more of the mysteries surrounding the kingdoms are revealed until the final act, where the last boss is either Toshiro himself, in denial of the truth of everything around him, or a Shadow version of himself that represents the kind of person that he has nearly let himself become, and the group will have to defeat them to have Toshiro's heart finally accept the truth about the changes that it needs to make and complete the "rebellion" against the darkness and the corruption that had all but lied within it. And I know you guys are gonna say that Toshiro can’t be a final Boss because he has gotten a Persona and is a member of the Phantom Thieves, but keep in mind that this guy isn’t exactly the first "evil Persona user" that we would have to face, and the previous two that we did both fit one of the two notches that I had just previously mentioned, so uh… yknow…
- Semi-Jossed. While a lot of the Kingdoms have elements of Toshiro's Palace, and the Tyrants are all awful people that led to how he is, he's not nearly distorted enough to have a true Palace; the Kingdoms are actually Salmael's attempt at finally crushing the last bit of idealism that Toshiro has left that stops him from becoming a Puppet King to his father and fiancee. He might have had once, but rather than an evil adult he'd more likely become a depressed husk like how Futaba was.
- In the 3rd kingdom, the Tyrant is Shadow Toshiro. However in Persona 2: Eternal Punishment and Persona 4 Arena and Ultimax, it's shown that Deity Shadows (what I like to call the God-like Shadows such as Yaldabaoth and Izanami) are capable of creating fake versions of people's Shadows. Not only that, but Toshiro awakens to his Persona from Erina, not Shadow Toshiro and killing Shadow Toshiro doesn't cause his human counterpart to undergo a Mental Shutdown like what typically happens when someone's Shadow Self is killed. As such, it's likely that the 3rd Tyrant isn't Toshiro's Shadow, but rather a fake created by Salmael in his plans to break Toshiro's will, as well as potentially that of the other Phantom Thieves.
- Another potential possibility is that the 3rd Kingdom's Tyrant IS Toshiro's Shadow, but only a PART of it. Keeping in mind that ultimately Salmael's goal was to break down what remained of Toshio's will to fight and by the time of the game's present story Toshiro was already extremely broken down, cowardly, and struggling with both severe depression and anxiety the way Shadow Toshiro acts annd speaks alights with his struggling mental state, especially if we considered the possibility that, when Salmael first began instigating their plan and breaking down Toshio's mind, it essentially used it's power to forcibly separate Toshio's fighting spirit from his Shadow this would, theoretically, of been when Toshio's mind preserved that fighting spirit by turning it into Erina, who began the rebellion within Toshio's heart, leading us into the story of the game. This would also all be why it took coming across and confronting what remained of Shadow Toshio in the 3rd Kingdom for Erina to realize what she was, and for Toshio to summon her as his persona. This is also why at the end of the game Erina returns to Toshio's heart. She is a part of his Shadow, and now that Salmael's influence and power of Toshio is broken, his Shadow is able to become whole again, giving him the resolve and strength to face his abusers in reality and finally giving him agency over his own life.