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This is a "Wild Mass Guess" entry, where we pull out all the sanity stops on theorizing. The regular entry on this topic is elsewhere. Please see this programme note.
Mercenaries
The battles between the Allied Nations and China in Mercenaries 2: World in Flames are the first battles of The Oil Wars
With the aid of highly skilled mercenaries,the Allied Nations take over in Venezuela. You see the events from the perspective of a mercenary shafted out of a payday who only wants revenge and doesn't care about the broader implications of their actions, just the money the make and the satisfaction of vengeance. Considering that the RSA was formed first, this implies that China lost in Venezuela. In time, they allied with Russia and formed the Red Star Alliance. The Western Coalition was formed a year later. Then, in the year 2024, the WC will covertly back a coup d'etat in Turkmenistan. The RSA will find evidence of the support, however, and the Oil Wars will begin.
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