- Released chapters from Dance with Dragons show Melisandre knows the catchphrase "You know nothing, Jon Snow." But the woman who said this died before Melisandre ever arrived on the Wall, so there is no way that she could have known the phrase would be pertinent. However, Melisandre and the aforementioned Ygritte both have red hair, a fact which is specifically remarked upon several times ? Ygritte is outright referred to as "kissed by fire," while Melisandre is a priestess of a god of fire. Clearly, R'hllor gives mystical telepathy to all those in the world with red hair ? possibly also including Beric Dondarrion (at least, until he finally kicked the bucket for good), the Tullys and those Starks with Tully features (debatable, as they have auburn hair, but it's fairly close to red), and maybe several others, as redheads are not massively uncommon.
- Melisandre probably has some psychic powers, that doesn't necessarily mean it has anything to do with hair colour. She could have taken the phrase from Jon's own head, not Ygritte's.
- The first time Mel said the phrase, it was very "OH hoho?" but then Val and others continued to say it multiple times with no special effect, leading me to think "You know nothing" is actually just a common wildling phrase.
- Also, the wights have blue eyes. Catelyn & Beric have blue eyes. Sure, they had blue eyes before they were raised from the dead, but...
- Actually, wights have glowing blue eyes, while Cat's glow red (see her description in A Ff C). I think we can rule out that they are wights - that they still might not be revived by anything even remotely considered good, is another thing. On the other hand, the Freys did break some very important rules, rules that - at least according to the story of the rat king - might justify the gods taking a direct hand. I'd rather consider her resurrection divine retribution on the Freys.
- Alternatively, The Lord of Light is one of the others. After all, 'Night' is just Shadow, and Shadow is another side of light. Perhaps there are two factions that go to war, and that's what destroys everything.
There are quite a lot of parellels between the faith of the Red Priests and that of the Ironborn.
Both are duotheistic religions with one good and one evil god.
Their good gods are associated with opposite elements and colours - R'hllor with fire and red, the Drowned God with water and pale green and blue.
The gods communicate with particularly faithful priests through their respective elements - Melisandre and Moqorro see visions in their flames, and Aeron hears the voice of the Drowned God in the waves.
Death and resurrection are a part of both faiths. The priests of R'hllor are known to be capable of reviving the dead, and the initiation ritual for damphairs involves being drowned and revived by CPR.
- It goes further than that. The description from Thoros about how he first resurrected Beric Dondarrion involve him giving Dondarrion a ritualistic kiss of life. What else involves a kiss of life? CPR.
Both faiths also involve human sacrifice via their gods' repective elements - burning for R'hllor, drowning for the Drowned God.
When particularly close to their respective god's element, Melisandre and Aeron are both capable of going without food.
Slavery also figures in both cultures - the Ironborn have thralls while the Red Priests are all slaves to the faith, though the Ironborn think this kind of slavery is just wrong.
Now, consider when Stannis and Melisandre did the leech ritual to kill Balon Greyjoy, Joffrey Baratheon, and Robb Stark. Joffrey and Robb were both betrayed by their allies, while Balon was blown off a ledge by a gust of wind. Aeron, naturally enough, blames the Storm God. It's interesting to note that Balon was killed by a storm, and if this theory is true, Balon would have worshipped R'hllor's enemy, so R'hllor decided to take a more direct hand here.
Also, Davos Seaworth. He was always associated with water, but after the Battle of King's Landing, he was swept into the sea, nearly drowned, but ultimately thrown back - one could look at this as the Drowned God sending Stannis a gift to counter R'hllor's influence on him via Melisandre, who Davos does not trust.
Finally, there's the matter of Patchface. Patchface was drowned but revived; now he's completely insane and rants about life under the sea, which occasionally resembles the Drowned God's watery halls. Also, he freaks Melisandre right the fuck out. Since Patchface was evidently given life by the Drowned God, it's natural Melisandre would react in disgust at one who has the favour of (what she considers to be) the devil.
This throws the First Men and the children of the forest and the old gods into a whole new light. When we first learn of the Andals invading Westeros and driving the First Men and the children back and hacking down all the weirwoods we are sympathetic to the First Men and the children (or, at least, I was). But, if the Andals knew of the origin of the weirwoods, they could hardly be blamed for finding the First Men and children barbaric and horrifying.
On a related note, we have the Starks. They are the only major house that is still (mostly) of the blood of the First Men. They describe their ancestors as the "Kings of Winter". They are the only major house that still worships the old gods (though they appear to be unaware of their religion's bloody origin). At one point in the story, I forget where exactly, it is noted that the Stark words are the only words of a major house that are not a boast of some kind. In contrast to things like "Growing strong", "We do not sow", "Ours is the fury", etc., the Stark words are "Winter is coming". "Winter is coming" is used as a warning throughout the books akin to something like "Knock on wood". However, what if originally, the Stark words were meant as a boast, as well? As in, look out southerners/Andals/enemies of the old gods, because when Winter gets here, we are gonna kick some serious butt. In other words, Winter coming was a good thing for the Starks of old and their gods.....
- That's a pretty good theory actually. One problem; the Children of the Forest and the Others were enemies, and the First Men sided with the children.
- Interesting, but it depends on your interpretation of Bran's vision, which came without any context. It could have been an execution of a criminal. That might have been the origin of the Northern custom of the local lord performing executions personally, and then going to pray before the heart tree afterward. Also, the lack of a heart tree at the Eyrie proves nothing: heart trees in the South are not weirwoods in the first place. There is no heart tree at the Eyrie because no tree can grow at that elevation.
- Well... whether or not Bran's vision entailed an execution, a Mayan-style blood sacrifice or some kind of Extreme Bar Mitzvah doesn't really enter into it. The point is that someone's blood was being spilled at the base of a weirwood. And Abraham Stark's descendants — such as Ned — have been unwittingly feeding their tree every time they cleanse their blades in the waters of the godswood ever since. Also, no, the lack of a heart tree at the Eyrie by itself doesn't prove anything, and yes, weirwoods are not as customary in the godwoods of the southron castles. However, in Chapter 80 of Storm of Swords (Sansa's seventh of that book), a point is made that in the Eyrie they specifically tried to get a weirwood to take root and it could not. The book also notes that your explanation is of course the most likely; a tree just can't take root at that altitude... On the other hand, all this circumstantial evidence has got to add up to something at some point, and taken as a contrast to the bloated, ginormous tree at White Harbour (where bloody executions are noted to have been quite common), well...
- Just thought of something else: the weirwood at the wildling village of Whitetree is also huge. Not only that, but it is described as having a mouth carved into it large enough to fit a sheep into and Jon Snow even finds charred human remains in there. The wildlings still worship the old gods by and large and seem to be much more in tune with their religion and history... This all but confirms that they are making blood sacrifices to the weirwoods.
- Cremating and then interring your dead in or around a still living Weirwood carved with a face which suggests it's nicely plugged into the Greenseer network looks like it would be a really great way prevent wights happening.
- There are hints at all sorts of gods the First Men may have had before converting to "the old gods" of the children of the forest (the ancient story of the first Storm King says he took a daughter of "the gods" as a wife, and went to war with them, which implies numerous, anthropomorphic gods, at least some of whom have powers over the weather). Either they had multiple religions, or it was a polytheistic/henotheistic religion with a whole pantheon of gods.
- A seafaring pantheon doesn't make all that much sense considering that the First Men had to _walk_ to get to Westeros, and that destroying their bridge is seen as the ideal way to stop them.
To support this (this is my own idea here), in Game of Thrones, the Braavosi Syrio is given a line like "All men must die. But not today." The "not today" part is original to the series, but might reflect a (still to come) book explanation of Valar Dohareis, and it's a good way of simplifying the phrases to young Arya.
- The "not today" part is not original to the show. Part of Syrio's training includes teaching Arya that "There is no god but Death. And what do we say to Death?", and the response she gives is, "Not today." Which could be not–so–thinly veiled reference to the beliefs of the Faceless Men. (Whether this implies that Syrio is affiliated with the Faceless Men, or simply familiar with their philosophy because both are from Braavos, is up for debate. Certainly, this troper always assumed that Syrio was purposefully laying the groundwork Arya's Faceless Man training even then.)
- If Euron's tale of throwing his dragon egg into the water is true, it may have hatched underwater for some reason. A sea-dragon might easily be mistaken for a kraken, especially as few people alive have seen a real dragon. However, it's far more likely that he used it to pay the Faceless Men for Balon's murder.
- I doubt it. Sea-dragons are a thing, though whether an ordinary dragon egg could hatch into one is a different question, and they're not krakens: sea-dragons prey on krakens. And most people know both dragons and krakens from pictures; krakens wrap their squid arms around ships and pull them under (at least in every other story that involves them) so it's unlikely that a sea-dragon would be mistaken for one. Although I believe Euron about throwing the egg away. No-one else would have done it, but '... Euron's maddest of all' and what we've seen of him seems to bear that out. If anyone would throw away a king's ransom in a fit of pique, it would be him. (On a side note, I have a theory for why all the iron-born are crazy. They're brain-damaged from the ritual drownings.)
- Going with the analogy between sea-dragons and Dany's dragons, what if sea dragons are born in blood and salt, just as Dany's are born in fire and blood (or alternately, the krakens as Elemental Counterparts to the dragons? It ties in with the symbolism around the Ironmen. The problem with this line of thought is how exactly would that work technically speaking? Kill/sacrifice some mook, toss them overboard with the egg? Wouldn't that be a bit of a gamble?
- Or, what about the stone dragons of Dragonstone? Although all of Melisandre's burnings in the earlier books surely would have done something towards waking them by now. Maybe there's some kind of specific sacrifice thing to wake them in a way analogous to how Dany's eggs were hatched.
- Or, what if the ice dragon(s) isn't a literal dragon but some other mythical beast or monster that is only referred to as a dragon because 1. no one's actually seen it and/or 2. it's known to unleash hellish destruction, so they called it a dragon by analogy, or for lack of a more appropriate word — kind of how Renaissance zoologists referred to giraffes as "cameleopards" because their descriptions became distorted as they were carried halfway across the world, or the theory that different dragon myths cropped up in the first place because of people finding dinosaur bones and being unable to explain them appropriately.
Playing off of the theory that the Doom of Valyria was a massive caldera or supervolcano, Dragonstone could likewise be a a figure that's bound to erupt, causing major weather changes that are in tune with the theme of winter. And with the nuclear winter such an event would cause, it would also give even more power to the Others, which thrive on the cold.
- By inference, Melisandre, waking all the statues on Dragonstone would be a very big case of Nice Job Breaking It, Hero.
- Semms unlikely, given how valuable Valyrian steel is. I'd be more inclined to think Aegon took whatever Valyrian steel was there and used/reforged those weapons before making the Iron Throne.
- Even if it the throne contains no Valyrian steel, the small folk think it might, and therefore it will. The throne, after all, is a lie that has been repeated so many times it has become real.
- Kinda confirmed by the World of Ice and Fire. The Shadow is a volcanic valley with very steep slopes, which is only illuminated by the sun at noon. It really is permeated with caustic vapors and covered with ash, and indeed is dragon-infested. It is also indeed uninhabitable; even the city of Asshai isn't a vacation spot, and only barely sustains its population because all kinds of sorcerers and cultists flock to the place (and possibly some of them are undead and immortal).
The dragons have been dying out every since the doom because they draw their life force from the energies volcano, when it erupted it used up all this energy and cut them off from the life force, so each generation of dragons had to rely on whatever little was left, thus dying out. When Dany brought the three dragons to life, enough time had passed that energy had built up again, allowing them to live, thus ushering a new age of dragons.
The Doom of Valyria was actualy caused by all the sorcery and power being used at once causing a resonance cascade like even that set of the volcano, which would not have erupted by itself untill the red comet came 500 years later.
The Doom was the fire that brought forth the Lightbringer, prematurely, all the magic and Valyrian steel in the area were combined in the event to form the sword, and the incarnation of Azor Ahai will have to travel to the center of the doom, in the ruins of the capital, where s/he will find the lightbringer waiting to be drawn from the fires of the very earth itself, and as an added bonus, it will be infused with the souls of the entire nation making it like the original.
- In order to make steel, you need to alloy iron and carbon. Now, in conventional steelmaking the carbon is derived from charcoal, but there's another technique. In the old days, people would sometimes use bones, especially the bones of dead relatives, to get the carbon for their steel. Now most of the time, that just makes steel, but if you use the bones of dragons, creatures already imbued with powerful magic, the alloy might well be invested with similar magic.
- Agreed. Furthermore, In the second Tyrion chapter of AGoT it's stated that dragonbone "is as strong as steel, yet lighter and more flexible, and of course impervious to fire".
- WMG EXTREME, brace yerself! This is the lynchpin of the whole series. The world was originally an iceworld with a dim sun. The "human" species that evolved there was cold adapted, with at least 2 forms. This accounts for why the wildings all expect to turn into wights if not burned, no zombie bites or infections needed. Its their "normal" biology. Much later a new species of "man" arrived and heated up the sun, with magical dragonfire. (Might be be just a small nearby iron asteroid, if heating up a star is too much to swallow.) Later still the magically heated sun began to become unstable. Thus the secret conspiracy to control the dragons (the same people who made Varys) Ultimately they will be used to reheat the Westeros sun. Of course they will need riders. Being "dead" is very handy for working in the cold and airlessness of space...
- OP here: I don't know about the whole second sun idea, or some of the rest, but I do like the idea of the Others or the Wights being the natural second stage of human life in this world. I don't buy it, but it sure would be interesting.
- But this raises the question, if humans in this universe do not have a biological aversion to incest, then why WOULD it be prohibited by faith or law? I seriously doubt that they know about things like genetic diversity, and even if they do (or suspect), incest would be considered a, let's say, "suboptimal mating arrangement", not a straight crime against nature. The reason we perceive incest as unnatural is because it feels, y'know unnatural to most. That's what the Westermarck effect describes in the first place. Keep in mind that the whole incest thing was started by Aegon I, the first Targaryen king, and an important role model for all Targaryens to follow. It's not hard to see that his successors would also marry their sisters, if their great ancestor did it to 'keep the blood pure'. Also, don't forget that only a few of them actually married their siblings - many married into other houses of Valyrian descent, like Velaryon, who would only be distant relatives (completely acceptable even by real world medieval standards), or even 'outsiders' (like Rhaegar and Elia of Dorne). And aside from the Targaryans, that pretty much only leaves Cersei and Jaime - well, and it can't be denied that incest DOES happen in real life, so these two were probably just attracted to each other despite the Westermarck effect. As for why Ned didn't care that much... he was mostly concerned with making sure that Robert's true heir (Stannis) would be crowned, so he just didn't care much for whose children they were - not Robert's, that was the important part. And maybe he really doesn't care about their incestous relationship in itself.
- Averting the Westermarck effect is easy, and was achieved by many Real Life royal houses by simply not having the siblings live together until they were to be wed. It's also unconnected to one's opinion of other people's relationships, which is all cultural. As far as reasons for prohibition go, in Real Life marrying-out has a solid history of being encouraged because it builds links across communities, and encourages more trade and economic activity, bringing life to the whole town; it long pre-dates any solid concept of genetic diversity.
- Plus, remember, the only family who regularly practised incest were the Targaryens, who in the early years of their reign could get away with just about anything and no doubt felt entitled to indulge themselves in any way they wanted. If that included keeping it in the family from preference rather than apparent necessity, so be it; the children were probably so conditioned to see their siblings as prospective future spouses that it became natural to them. Otherwise people in Westeros see incest as a sin; Catelyn, for example, is clearly disgusted and appalled when she learns the truth in the second book, and in the past, Joanna Lannister is horrified when she learns what her children have been doing and takes steps to prevent it.
- Fosterage
is clearly very common among Westerosi nobility, and that could counteract the effect. On the other hand, it seems to begin around the age of 8-10, too late to affect the WE, and in the particular case of C+J they seem to have had a close childhood relationship. No word on how the Targs raised their kids though, so they could well have split them up in early childhood. - The Targaryens probably had their own deal, but the thing going on between Cersei and Jaime always kind of reminded me of one episode of Criminal Minds (yes, I know it's a fictional show, but they usually try to base it on real psychological theory) where these two siblings became intensely attracted to one another because they lost their whole family at a very young age and spent years with no one else TO love, to the point where they sort of weren't capable of even figuring out HOW to love anybody else. Jaime and Cersei didn't fall in love because it felt normal — they fell in love because they were very alone, and very damaged.
- Consider: they lost their mother (and, in many ways, their father) when they were eight. They started sleeping together (as opposed to just fooling around) when they were nine.
- Or, possibly, Valyrians are immune to the Westermarck effect. If they had a cultural bias towards sibling marriage, then anyone without a natural disinclination to incest would be more likely to have more children, passing on the trait, and thus over the five thousand years of Valyria's history whatever causes the Westermarck effect was bred out of them. (This could also tie in with the theory that Jaime and Cersei are Aerys' children and not Tywin's, as they also seem immune to the effect.)
- In the real world, a lot of technology came about in Northern Europe during the Little Ice Age (~1350-1850); in fact, it's kind of the figurative summer of European civilization. The long winters would probably spur technological progress to survive and expand, not retard it.
- The issue is that, even during the Little Ice Age, winter still only lasted a few months. Winters in the world of A Song of Ice and Fire are short if they last three years. For a decent chunk of the population, a long winter would be entirely unsurvivable. Since they're most likely global, they also include a long time period when trade is likely to be mostly if not entirely shut down by severe weather and localized famine. The unpredictability would make long-term planning and investments difficult to justify, further impeding progress.
- Except that Jalabhar Xho isn't from Sothoryos; he's from the Summer Isles, which lie directly south of Dorne, and are still populated.
- The Summer Isles are part of Sothoryos in the same sense that Cape Verde is part of Africa.
- Alternatively, the Black Walkers aren't actually black- they're called that because some people have seen the blackened, burned wastes they leave behind, but almost no one has actually seen one in person and lived. They're actually white, because their bodies are so hot they're glowing.
The humans of this world are so numerous and so vile, that every so often the damn planet has its fill of them. First it sends the Others to spread fear and death. And then Winter Comes to take the rest. The few humans that survive start the cycle all over again.
They never talk about actually TRAINING the ravens; it's just taken as a given that they are reliable messengers, and they know somehow where to go. The Maesters/Varys/someone know that he is still alive and controlling them, but have some kind of deal for him to stay away up beyond the Wall in return for keeping their communications going.
(This level of trust on behalf of, well, ANYONE in this universe—among other things—obviously speaks out against this theory as a likely possibility, but it still seems interesting.)
The magic is linked to the materials in the comets that hit the planet. Each impact drives up ambient magic levels. This radiation is beneficial in that it grants magical powers. Its toxic in high levels, requiring the user to either evolve to resist its effects (Valyrian heat resistance) or suffer the consequences: deformities in Asshai and Harrenhal, Greyscale in Valyria, and the Butterfly Disease in Naath.
The return of magic probably has less to do with the birth of Dany’s dragons, and more to do with the comet making it possible again. This would also explain the White Walkers being on the move, as well as Bloodraven and the children chasing down Bran.
We hear about the Bloodstone Emperor in Yi Ti worshipping a black stone which fell from the sky. This probably wasn’t the crimson comet in the story, but *a* comet that fell.
All the magical areas have wierd radiation-esque issues:
Asshai has rampant magic, and rampant deformations. The city is made out of the black stone. Its deemed so toxic, few denizens (if any) dare eat food from the enivronment.
The Northern Wastes have some magic, but not nearly like the other two locations. The Wierwoods are uniquely red in appearance. This isn’t unlike the “Red Forest” near Chernobyl in the real world. This suggests the Weirwood trees are actually a mutated tree species that evolved from centuries of comet impacts, driving up ambient magical radiation.
Valyria had radiation resistant humans. Harrenhall was burned down by dragons, and exhibits similar issues as Asshai: deformations, and magical sightings. People ‘burn to death in the ruins,’ which might not mean ‘conventional burning’ but radiation burning. What if dragon fire is fueled by the black stone, which the dragons metabolized, when nobody knows where they went?
The Valyrian case is interesting because of the rampant incest. If someone was born and raised in Valyria, if they developed the radiation resistance as a survival mechanism, then it would make sense they would have a preference for mates with similar resistances, lest their children be born deformed. In the case where there were plenty of Valyrians available to choose from, incest was probably a rarity. Once they became an ‘endangered species,’ the only potential mates with the resistances were also their blood relations. Their survival instincts might see incest as a lesser risk, to losing their radiation resistance.
So, what happened to the magic?
Well, comets only hit the planet every so often. Heavy metals sink below lighter materials. You also have massive construction projects like Asshai, which has one of the largest concentrations in the world, and reportedly, the most (known) magic as well. Since Asshai is situated in a valley, the massive radiation waves it gives off are contained within the valley walls.
Couple this with the Doom of Valyria, which is likely due to a combination of the proto-faceless men killing off their mages which acted as ‘cooling tower’ personnel to keep their magic reactor from exploding; and the vast concentrations of magic stone ore they were undoubtedly mining (hence the awful conditions). Since the Doom effectively buried the magic reactor, it stopped being a controlled source of magic.
All in all, this brings the ambient magic levels down to where they barely register. In the northern wastes, its unlikely the ore concentrations are even habitable, between the frigid temperatures, the White Walkers, and the radiation. Its possible though, that the unmentioned White Walker capitol IS where the ore is concentrated. They could have mines staffed with wights.
So, anyways... stuff got buried, and magic plummeted. Since White Walkers probably can’t function without magic, they were forced back to where its concetrations are strongest.
Bloodraven probably fared well because he was bolted into the magic trees, force-feeding him magic. This probably makes him strong enough to survive the way he did, but not strong enough to do anything fancy.
The red witches have another approach: they have two sources of magic. The first, and most obvious is the stone in their chokers. The 2nd, particularly where shadow binders are concerned, is force-feeding themselves contaminated food, until they’re practically swimming in the stuff. This is why Melisandre is able to stay warm, because she’s so heavily contaminated, that she’s providing supplemental heat. Since she’s already an adult, she doesn’t need to worry about herself mutating, aside from her abnormally long life.
Then there’s her shadow babies. We know that some contamination causes deformities in wildlife and human new borns. What if the shadow monster she births is actually the extreme of that? Something so contaminated, it becomes more magic than human?
In the real world, its known heavy metals can stay in the human body almost permanently if ingested. If the magic stone behaves like that, then Melisandre could just be on magical life support, where she can’t actually live without having magic to keep her alive. It gets creepier to think that the chokers arent ‘glammours’ but actually devices which prevent and reverse rapid on-set mutations.
Anyways... so magic levels went down. Then the comet hits. Since it impacted on the other side of the planet, nobody saw the explosion, but it kicked up radioactive contaminants, which were carried around the globe via the trade winds. Ambient radiation levels go up, and suddenly you have a White Walker population that can head south, a functional Weirwood network, and Asshai... just keeps being creepy as ever.
Other implications:
Dragons probably metabolize the black stone, both as a food and as energy for their fire. This also helps explain that gross wyrm situation with one of the Targaryans. If her dragon forced her to go to Valyria, it went to munch on a rock, and she wound up tangling with the wyrms in the process. It would make sense they not only feed on the rock concentrations themselves, but also on the trace amounts inside her body.
If the dragons didnt eat the rock, then it would be super difficult to explain why they havent starved to death without single handedly eating half of Dany’s empire. Now for Harrenhal, this suggests the dragons dont just breathe fire, but actually spit some kind of concentrated chemical made from the rocks they ingest. When they blasted Harrenhal, they wound up coating the castle in tons of the stuff, contaminating it for generations.
Then we have Valyrian steel swords which look like real world damascus steel. Damascus steel, much like Japanese steel developed in areas where the available metal was generally poor quality. To overcome this issue, the civilizations developed ‘folding processes’ which attempt to create a uniform material throughout the blade. In damascus steel, this has the noticeable effect of leaving a ‘wavy’ look. Now, if you take iron in the ASOIAF and mix it with dragon-melted black stone or dragon bones, you’ll probably get an effect similar to what’s described in Valyrian steel swords. This also explains why some of the swords give off heat: they’re radioactive. And explains pale sword of Dayne, sword of the morning. This also explains why the swords can kill White Walkers: they’re virtually all magical.
Next, you have the Maester Conspiracy. Maesters didnt get rid of ‘dragons’ or White Walkers, or magicians. They got rid of the stones. They moved it up north, either to put into the wall’s construction, or just to make sure the material is north of the wall.
Now, if you have dragons that depend on that stone to survive, they can’t be chained up. They need to go find the stone to eat it. Otherwise, they starve / wind up stunted, because they simply suffer from malnutrition.
Since the stone was moved away by the maesters, the dragons in captivity, are virtually guaranteed to suffer from not having it. Since nobody knows that dragons actually need the stuff, it kind of backs everyone into a dragonless corner.
Then comes greycale. Why does the Citedal dump Grey Scale sufferers in Valyria, rather than putting them out of their misery? Of course, also, why aren’t they refining the cure?
If we go back to the three magic locations, only one of them isnt actively defended by a political power, and that’s Valyria. The north has the night watch on the wall, and then the white walkers more than likely guarding the actual ore deposits. Asshai must have at least some form of governing body that maintains some semblance of law. Nobody can theoretically make off with the building supports without attracting scary attention.
Valyria doesn’t have any of these. Bring in a small army, with ‘kill anything that moves,’ and they could theoretically get away with some grave robbing, much like Euron claimed to do. Sure, the fire wyrms are creepy, but a lot of their behavior is still animalistic. Grey Scale is a unique challenge because for every soldier touched, they become infected. Any soldier they touch in turn, also get infected. Their clothes and artifacts can also be contaminated. It makes the threat difficult to stay certain about. So, they maesters dump the infected in the area as a means to further discourage and magic ore mining.
Diseases associated with areas having high concentrations of black stone, or potential contamination:
Asshai’s descriptions are anywhere between a dead, sterilized wilderness, to wildly misshapen local creatures. The wildlife prevalent enough around the area to warrant names are unique to that location.
Butterfly disease is closely associated with at least one black stone fort. Its symptoms include insanity / dancing, and what is presumably widespread necrosis of the flesh. The locals appear to be immune to this. Note: these symptoms are similar to radiation sickness, since there can be insanity, the dancing piece could come about when the pain subsides (also known as the ‘walking ghost’ phase). The pain subsiding is the calm before the storm, when the nerves died, due to widespread necrosis. After that phase is the necrosis itself.
In Naath, its notable that the common method for avoiding the disease is not spending too much time on the island. If the disease truly came from the butterflies, then time spent wouldnt be regarded as a ‘standard practice’ for avoiding it. In the real world, this is a common practice for working around radioactive materials. In extreme cases, if an individual spends too much time around it, they can develop symptoms similar to the disease above.
Greyscale is associated with Valyria. Its speculated that Valyrians has some resistance to it. Since it appears to spread outwards from the point of contact with a Stone Man, this would suggest that contact is where the contamination starts. If the cure in the show is cannon to what the books will eventually reveal, then the true way to treat it cutting out the contaminated tissue, followed by an ointment probably designed to prevent infection after the dermal abrasion.
The reason why Grey Scale can behave differently than the Butterfly disease is the form of the contaminant. On Naath, simply leaving the island after a short while is enough. This means the black stone is solid, and not a true contamination risk.
Grey Scale on the other hand originates at or around Valyria, where black stone would have been blasted into dust by the explosions. In that case, the black stone settles on the skin, and provides a constant radiation source that the infected carries with them. The necrosis here starts from the point of contact and spreads outwards. Since its slower, the ‘stony’ texture of the disease is liken to scar tissue. Amputating the ‘infected’ limb isnt reliable because its probably not just that limb that’s contaminated, its just the first location to show clear signs of necrosis.
Its important to note here: Grey Scale also carries with it irrational behavior, much like the dancing in the butterfly disease. It just happens slowly. Its also important to note, at least in the books, Grey Scale is considered ‘painless,’ which would be due to the nerve tissue dying off in the affected area.
Another notable location for Grey Scale is Choyane. This is one of the few urban locations to be razed by dragons, which this post already links to spreading black stone contamination.
Another pattern supporting this theory is that the Black Walls of Volantis, also require long-term residents to be of Valyrian descent. If the walls give off concentrated radiation at the center, then only people with Valyrian resistance to the radiation could survive there without rampant stillborn / malformities. The radiation diseases of the people around the walls are probably written off as a “problem for commoners.”
What does this mean for the fate of the world?
Well, not much, good or bad. The process appears to be gradual enough to prevent any ‘wham’ moments. We’ve already seen the way three races adapt to it:
Those with Valyrian parentage have resistance. The Children of the Forest and White Walkers appear to be symbiotic with it. They might be even dependent on it. Regular humans are either in areas where the radiation isn’t, or go through high-speed natural selection in areas with high concentrations.
Since Asshai behaves like a giant reactor, much like old Valyria, dismantling the city and leaving giant black stone obelisks everywhere isn't necessarily a good idea. The safer thing to do would be to dilute the black stone concentration first, or you’ll wind up with dead zones, possible greyscale outbreaks, and maurading wizards. Even doing that doesn’t necessarily translate to an objectively ‘good’ outcome, because you’ll end up with magic super powered humans, doing what people in ASOIAF are prone to do: rape and pillage.
There are some strategic considerations...
The Citadel’s base is the black rock. Suggesting maesters in on the ground floor, or below could probably make magic work. This would give them an unparalleled capacity for information collection. Whether or not the maesters have a secret sect doing this is unverified. Its also possible they’re so biased against magic, they stopped experimenting, or banned it completely. For instance, with their glass candle test, the entire setup could be designed in such a way where its doomed to fail (ie being too far away from the foundation).
Areas colonized with Valyrian descendants and with black stone structures tend be resistant to recolonization by non-Valyrians. The Valyrians can be conquered, but the occupiers will die of radiation sickness soon after.
Any place that sees really heavy dragon fire tends to become irradiated. This means a Valyrian attack is likely to result in ‘scortched earth,’ where everything mutates or necrotizes. If the Valyrians are conscious of this, it allows them to easily hold territory.
Some, but not all humans benefit from being anywhere near the radiation. This means its really pure luck if you have anything to gain. This kind of puts the Maesters in a “grumpy protector of the normals” role. Which oddly, provides a sort of benevolent rationale to what they do. Everyone can do science, but not everyone can do magic.
That would also make dragons sort of concentrated power batteries and explain why pyromancer spells work better than usual: small air contamination and magic charged air particles getting into the mix.
- The Maesters try to suppress magic by introducing a logical, scientific worldview. But they are not very successful in this endeavour, because their science is rather pathetic. No Guns of Mistridge = no Technocracy.
