Before Aerea Targaryen died, she was begging for death. This was due to her firewyrm infestation. While she was able to endure it longer than an average human, its pretty much guaranteed the average human suffers just as badly, but doesn’t survive as long.
Where do these wyrms originate? The mines of Valyria (allegedly). The ‘first gift’ also happened in the mines. Match these cases up, and you have a firewyrm infested slave, begging for death, and a very pissed off army of proto-assassins.
Then comes the slave rebellion, where enough Valyrian fire mages are killed, sparking The Doom.
This explains the Brovosi overall acceptance of an assassin’s guild operating in the open: the Faceless Men played a key role in the slave liberation and subsequent city’s founding.
Which would also explain why the old coins in House of Black and White are made of iron: they were made from slave chains.
Of the known anomalies in the world, the Faceless Men are one of the few organizations that doesn’t seem to be short on magic well before the dragons show up. Since “only life can pay for death,” the assassinations and various offerings of “the gift” fuel this requirement. Since the Faceless Men don’t appear to do any super obvious magic, then this fuels things like their glamour magic, and whatever other subtle purposes they use it for.
Well, first we need to figure out who can afford a Faceless Man. The cost of one is staggering - nobody in King's Landing at least seemed able to purchase such service, not even Littlefinger (who seems to move gold around rather than hoarding it). Tywin might have afforded it, but this does not strike me as his style. Plus, was there any evidence that he had regular contact with Essos? But there is someone with hands in both Westeros and Essos, who also happens to be one of the wealthiest and craftiest characters: Illyrio Mopatis. And assassination definitely seems like his style.
So who would Illyrio want dead? Obviously, Illyrio would need to know or at least know of this individual. This person must be a threat to his plans. It has to be someone who is still alive as of A Dance with Dragons, since Jaqen remains active. But, the target also must have been selected before the end of A Game of Thrones, since Jaqen was in the dungeon by that point.
The sheer amount of deaths already eliminates a huge chunk of potential targets (i.e. it wasn't Robert or Tywin). Stannis would seem like a good candidate, but he wasn't actively doing anything by the time Jaqen was deployed. Let's look at Illyrio's motivation again: he apparently wants to put a Targaryen on the throne. Who would be a liability to this plan? I can only think of three (still living) candidates:
The first two are Varys and Doran Martell, being his co-conspirators. It's possible, I guess, that Illyrio might have found a reason to distrust one - Doran being a bit more likely. Perhaps Illyrio thought he might betray them, manipulating the young Targaryen ruler through marriage? Or by striking a deal with such top-secret information? Again, it's possible, but I'm not totally convinced; Doran and Varys both seem hella committed.
Before I reveal my personal suspicion, let me just come out and say that I support the theory that Jon is Rhaegar Targaryen's son by Lyanna Stark. If so, that could present a significant rival to Illyrio's personal pet dragon. In fact, even if that theory is wrong but Illyrio himself believes it in-universe, it still works! But only two men know the truth: Eddard Stark and Howland Reed. Ned's dead, baby, and besides, he'd faithfully kept his tongue shut for 15+ years. But Howland Reed? He's a wild card, no telling what he might do with this possible information. Not only that, Crannogmen are specifically notorious to find and defeat. But a Faceless Man, ah, he'll get the job done, you can bet on that.
It's also worth noting that Jaqen seems to currently be in Oldtown, conversing with Sam, who not only knows Jon, but also has met the Reeds. That might be a coincidence, but still, Jaqen could very well be trying to gather knowledge on how to assassinate this particular individual. And where better to go for knowledge? Also, if the theory that Alleras is Sarella is also true, that's another person who would be very interested in knowing about possible rivals for a Targaryen/Martell alliance...
- Introducing the Faceless Men was really Opening a Can of Clones, wasn't it...
...And have been for decades beyond count.
OK... that's not so wild: it's pretty darned obvious they're a part of the whole mess, simply down to who they do and do not accept "prayers" from and how they choose to accept clients in the first place. That means an awful lot of room for an agenda beyond their open mission statement. The really wild stuff is in what comes next...
The possible link with the Iron Bank: face it... that iron coin and an Iron Bank is rather suggestive. There must surely be some connection? And, Arya's first assignment is to kill an insurance broker of some description. Telling me the rather nervous guy hasn't racked up a few debts in the wrong places insuring the wrong things (and knows it)? Won't wash. Whether the Faceless Men and the Iron Bank actually have something that is just a rather cozy relationship or what amounts to a full-blown connection meaning they are one and the same, their combined influence goes back decades for said bank to get such a fearsome reputation when it comes to debt collection. And, who, pray tell, has been funding all sides from even before the start of the series? And, can call in debts as and when it's useful for their purposes, whatever those may be?
If anybody tries to tell me that Jaqen H'gar was in the Black Cells when Arya first met him because he got careless, I'll start laughing. And, should they further go on to suggest that he had to go along with the Black Watch Recruitment Drive just to get out, again... I'll start turning into a hyena. I don't know what he was doing, but whatever it was, it was no accident. And, accepting Arya's little list of names, and going along with her scheme in Harrenhal? I'll be surprised if that was a total accident, as well. It certainly stirred the political pot.
Recruiting her may or may not have been on the shopping list, but he was in a wonderful position to affect the War in various other ways, depending on the requests he could trigger just by hanging around waiting for "I wish he'd just drop dead" kind of requests all the way to the more expensive kind: just think of the characters he came into contact with through that Black Cell... including, probably, Varys. He's not only touched the Black Watch, Arya, a bastard of the late king in Gendry, one of the centre pin Castles of the War of the Five Kings, but could collect a better suited face and is now in the Citadel... Please: simple religious assassination order simply serving a conglomerate ideal of Death, my left foot. You don't land that deeply in politics just for kicks and giggles. Or, just to kill. Think of all the information he's already had access to by sneaking around King's Landing... and is primed to get where he is, now.
He's also well placed to start collecting debts linked to the Iron Throne, should the need arise. Should Varys leave any left outstanding for him to collect, of course.
And, something else to nibble on that is totally out there: the Waif. She's very, very short. The size of a young child, in fact. Yet, she's waaaaaaay older than she looks and admits it with one hell of a backstory... and, she's in a place where looking human is made rather easy. What if she isn't actually human, but good at singing to all that weirwood that's hanging about the place, rather? Acorn... oak... oak table: we're still talking tree, here. And, as the Children up North use bowls with carved eyes, etc... I'm betting the "dead" wood hanging around e.g. the doors of the House can still see. The Faceless Men lie about their backgrounds all the time, when they need to... Are you telling me you didn't think of her as possibly being a Child of the Forest at some point? And, the Children do mention the fact that they could be all the "gods" men have had, any way.
Jon Connington really did die a long time ago, and a Faceless man took his face to become Griff, the sellsword. He was hired by Varys and Illyrio, using Illyrio's vast fortune, to put Aegon/Pisswater Prince/Illyrio's son/etc. on the Iron Throne. In ADWD, Griff's internal monologue uses the phrase "All Men Must Die."
His "greyscale" is just an excuse for him to abandon the Griff face when the charade is over and return to Braavos for a new mission.
- But are the others "men"? (And no, I'm not suggesting that they're actually women.)
- The Others themselves might not be, but the wights that serve them definitely are. Stopping them from resurrecting the dead would be an important step in saving Westeros from their invasion.
- I think the point was that wights aren't men. Nobody would consider them to be men, and when one is a wight, they aren't "living". When someone's wight comes back, nobody rejoices that their friend is still alive, even for a moment, the fact that it is still a corpse is unmistakable... These men have, in fact, died.
- Aren't they? How do we know? We don't really understand how death works in our world (if there are things like souls etc.), let alone in Westeros. The wights are, without question, controlled by unknown forces, and appear to have lost all remnants of their previous life. But how can we really be sure? Maybe they are very much "alive". Maybe their souls, if something like that exists in this universe, are still within them when they become wights. Maybe the unknown force just modifies their bodies and takes control of their minds, and we will find out that there actually is a way to reverse the process (at least to give them back their free will). We were already introduced to Coldhands, who appears to have all characteristics of a wight, but free will.
- Don't forget, "What is dead can never die."
- I think the point was that wights aren't men. Nobody would consider them to be men, and when one is a wight, they aren't "living". When someone's wight comes back, nobody rejoices that their friend is still alive, even for a moment, the fact that it is still a corpse is unmistakable... These men have, in fact, died.
- The Seven are the optimal traits of an agrarian, feudal god. While not * impossible* , there's no reason to believe this.
- According to official Faceless Man dogma, at least, it's the other way around - one of the faces of the Many-Faced God is The Stranger of the Seven, who is described in a way that sort of resembles the Grim Reaper. There's a statue of him in their temple.
- This does not seem likely. I don't think the Others have enough reasoning capacity to recognize an ally (or they wouldn't care). What seems more likely is that some Faceless Men would go and try to ally with the Others, and become more wights.
- The Others have their own language; we know this from the prologue to A Go T. They clearly have the intelligence to understand the concept of an alliance (though whether they'd want one is another matter).
- Could the Faceless Men's god of death be the same as the force behind the Others and the antagonist of R'hlorr, Lord of Light? Also, the ice demons may be a lot smarter than the walking corpses. But there's no need to go North of the Wall to help the Others - assassins would be more effective south of the Wall.
- After Arya flees the scen of his (supposed) death, he is captured by Ser Meryn and thrown into the Black Cells. There, he changes is identity to that of Jaqen H'ghar, and leaves the King's Landing with the other convicts bound for the Wall. That doesn't work out, and after his business with Arya is concluded, he becomes the Alchemist from the prologue of A Feast for Crows. He then kills Pate, assumes his identity, and greets Sam Tarly in that personality at the end of A Ff C.
- Alternatively, In the series verse is Syrio Forel is Jaqen H'ghar. Syrio Forel's discussion on death sounds a heck of a lot like a faceless man. Alternatively he just knows it well being of Bravvos
- Furthermore Syrio/Jaqen is also Arya's new mentor the kindly old man who likes to put on a cadaver face.
- Actually, per the waif, the Faceless Men do take money as payment, however, money isn't enough of a payment by itself (for example the waif's father had to give up two thirds of his enormous wealth and his daughter).
- Alternately, the Faceless Men are a Church of Happyology with a made-up backstory who perform expensive assassinations to make money for the Iron Bank and also kill people who default on their loans.
- Alternately: the Iron Bank has the Faceless Men on retainer. As the richest bank in the world, even if the faceless men aren't cheap, the bank is good for whatever they want. Meanwhile, no one in the world is safe from not paying the bank, so it works out for the bank in the long run.
