History Main / GamblersFallacy

14th Sep '16 9:40:41 PM Premonition45
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** In "Margical History Tour", the retelling of Henry VIII's life shows Henry (Homer) meeting Anne Boleyn (Lindsay Naegle), who touts her track record of bearing sons. So, they marry, but she produces a daughter, And Henry has her beheaded for it.
14th Aug '16 7:08:20 PM MsChibi
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* On ''Series/MyNameIsEarl'', Earl mentions a NoodleIncident wherein he lost a series of Rock-Paper-Scissors games to a monkey. The monkey threw "Rock" several times, and just when Earl decided to throw "Paper," the monkey threw "Scissors."
2nd Aug '16 5:59:17 PM Premonition45
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Compare SunkCostFallacy.
24th Jun '16 11:45:50 AM HiddenWindshield
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* Generally speaking, many video games have a mechanic that tweaks the RNG, so that long strings of excessively bad (or good) luck are less likely than they would be in a memoryless system. This is partly because players expect this, and partly such strings are friggin annoying to deal with in games that aren't centered around being CrazyPrepared to deal with them.

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* Generally speaking, many video games have a mechanic that tweaks the RNG, so that long strings of excessively bad (or good) luck are less likely than they would be in a memoryless system. This is partly because players expect this, and partly because such strings are [[TropesAreNotBad really friggin annoying to deal with with]] (at least, in games that aren't centered around being CrazyPrepared to deal with them.them).
13th Jun '16 2:02:41 AM PaulA
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* The narrator in Creator/EdgarAllanPoe's "The Mystery of Marie Roget" mistakenly believes that this fallacy is right, although finds it hard to convince someone.
-->Nothing, for example, is more difficult than to convince the merely general reader that the fact of sixes having been thrown twice in succession by a player at dice, is sufficient cause for betting the largest odds that sixes will not be thrown in the third attempt. A suggestion to this effect is usually rejected by the intellect at once. It does not appear that the two throws which have been completed, and which lie now absolutely in the Past, can have influence upon the throw which exists only in the Future. The chance for throwing sixes seems to be precisely as it was at any ordinary time—that is to say, subject only to the influence of the various other throws which may be made by the dice. And this is a reflection which appears so exceedingly obvious that attempts to controvert it are received more frequently with a derisive smile than with anything like respectful attention.

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* The narrator in Creator/EdgarAllanPoe's "The Mystery of Marie Roget" "Literature/TheMysteryOfMarieRoget" mistakenly believes that this fallacy is right, although finds it hard to convince someone.
-->Nothing, for example, is more difficult than to convince the merely general reader that the fact of sixes having been thrown twice in succession by a player at dice, is sufficient cause for betting the largest odds that sixes will not be thrown in the third attempt. A suggestion to this effect is usually rejected by the intellect at once. It does not appear that the two throws which have been completed, and which lie now absolutely in the Past, can have influence upon the throw which exists only in the Future. The chance for throwing sixes seems to be precisely as it was at any ordinary time—that time--that is to say, subject only to the influence of the various other throws which may be made by the dice. And this is a reflection which appears so exceedingly obvious that attempts to controvert it are received more frequently with a derisive smile than with anything like respectful attention.
10th Apr '16 2:16:40 PM Josef5678
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* Similar to the roulette example above, gamblers apply this logic to slot machines, which is pointed out in the book ''[[http://www.amazon.com/Smart-Slot-Strategies-mathematical-strategies/dp/1453609261/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1351266797&sr=8-1&keywords=smart+slot+strategies Smart Slot Strategies]]''. The author points out how gamblers will ignore the fact that a machine is controlled by a random number generator and will assume a machine is "hot" or "cold" based on how it's performing. It's further explained that many players believe they can tell how a machine is programmed by playing the machine around 20 times, despite the random number generator having millions of possibilities. A sample size of 20 plays is far too small to determine any trend in a population that size. With that said, individual machines really can be set with different payout tables. Still, 20 plays is too small for trends.

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* Similar to the roulette example above, gamblers Gamblers apply this logic to slot machines, which is pointed out in the book ''[[http://www.amazon.com/Smart-Slot-Strategies-mathematical-strategies/dp/1453609261/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1351266797&sr=8-1&keywords=smart+slot+strategies Smart Slot Strategies]]''. The author points out how gamblers will ignore the fact that a machine is controlled by a random number generator and will assume a machine is "hot" or "cold" based on how it's performing. It's further explained that many players believe they can tell how a machine is programmed by playing the machine around 20 times, despite the random number generator having millions of possibilities. A sample size of 20 plays is far too small to determine any trend in a population that size. With that said, individual machines really can be set with different payout tables. Still, 20 plays is too small for trends.
7th Apr '16 6:22:18 PM Nakuyabi
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* During each of the World Wars, a variant of this appeared as the Shell Hole Fallacy: when enemy artillery were randomly blazing away at the field, some troops (and some commanders!) believed that jumping into a crater a bursting shell had just made would increase their chances of survival, since the odds of a place being hit ''twice'' during any giving shelling were relatively low. While the artillery gunners weren't ''entirely'' unbiased (since they were trying to distribute their shots so as to hit as many parts of the field as possible in hopes of maximizing the number of targets hit), they really didn't have much control over any of the randomizing factors, so the actual odds that any given shell would strike where one had already struck were pretty much the same as the odds of that place being struck the first time. In any event, jumping into those craters did not perceptibly improve the soldiers' survival rate.
24th Dec '15 2:37:55 PM billybobfred
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* ''VideoGame/CityOfHeroes'' utilises a system called [[http://paragonwiki.com/wiki/Streakbreaker#The_Streak_Breaker the Streak Breaker]]. This mechanic in the attack calculations sometimes ''forces'' attacks that would normally be misses to instead hit, based on the current number of misses in a row versus your chance to hit. In short, it breaks streaks of misses.
* This one also shows up among players of ''VideoGame/WorldOfWarcraft'', in particular with the rare dragon whelp pets that drop out in the world, with many players assuming the more you kill the whelps, the higher your chance grows of finally getting a drop, while in reality the chance is independent of each past or future kill.
** Because people refuse to accept that improbable does not mean impossible or certain (or simply because the large variation in time required was ''annoying''), ''World of Warcraft'' developers actually modified this detail to conform to players' expectations. [[http://www.sirlin.net/blog/2010/3/11/gdc-2010-day-1.html Your chances for a drop do gradually increase the more you kill.]] This was also implemented because of some "kill this mob and loot this item off them" quests, where the drop rate was not 100%. Some of these quests had unusually low drop rates, and you could spend an hour or more trying to finish a quest. With this change, the chance goes up and up with each "loot", and then resets itself to the default rate with every success.
** In fact, many video games play around with the RNG like this, both because players expect it, and because it's really, really annoying to be on the receiving end of a string of bad luck, unless it's the kind of game where being CrazyPrepared for bad luck is expected of the player.



* Generally speaking, many video games have a mechanic that tweaks the RNG, so that long strings of excessively bad (or good) luck are less likely than they would be in a memoryless system. This is partly because players expect this, and partly such strings are friggin annoying to deal with in games that aren't centered around being CrazyPrepared to deal with them.




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* ''VideoGame/CityOfHeroes'' utilises a system called [[http://paragonwiki.com/wiki/Streakbreaker#The_Streak_Breaker the Streak Breaker]]. This mechanic in the attack calculations sometimes ''forces'' attacks that would normally be misses to instead hit, based on the current number of misses in a row versus your chance to hit. In short, it breaks streaks of misses.
* This one also shows up among players of ''VideoGame/WorldOfWarcraft'', in particular with the rare dragon whelp pets that drop out in the world, with many players assuming the more you kill the whelps, the higher your chance grows of finally getting a drop, while in reality the chance was initially independent of each past or future kill... but because people refuse to accept that improbable does not mean impossible or certain (or simply because the large variation in time required was ''annoying''), ''World of Warcraft'' developers actually modified this detail to conform to players' expectations. [[http://www.sirlin.net/blog/2010/3/11/gdc-2010-day-1.html Your chances for a drop do gradually increase the more you kill.]] This was also implemented because of some "kill this mob and loot this item off them" quests, where the drop rate was not 100%. Some of these quests had unusually low drop rates, and you could spend an hour or more trying to finish a quest. With this change, the chance goes up and up with each "loot", and then resets itself to the default rate with every success.
* ''VideoGame/KingdomOfLoathing'''s "adventure queue" remembers the last 5 combat and non-combat encounters you've had in each area, and if the normal selection method picks one of them, it'll reject it 75% of the time and pick a new one.
2nd Nov '15 3:34:42 PM Berrenta
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A similar misinterpretation is that if an event has the odds of 1-in-n, then you are guaranteed a success if you make n attempts. As an exaggerated example, the probability of a "heads" on an unbiased coin is 1/2, therefore, flipping a coin twice is guaranteed to get at least one "heads." [[CaptainObvious This is not true]].

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A similar misinterpretation is that if an event has the odds of 1-in-n, then you are guaranteed a success if you make n attempts. As an exaggerated example, the probability of a "heads" on an unbiased coin is 1/2, therefore, flipping a coin twice is guaranteed to get at least one "heads." [[CaptainObvious This is not true]].
true.
24th Oct '15 9:05:52 AM eroock
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-->--'''Engie-tan''', ''Webcomic/NerfNow''

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-->--'''Engie-tan''', -->-- '''Engie-tan''', ''Webcomic/NerfNow''
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