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collapse/expand topics back to Main/MillionToOneChance

11:11:47 PM Sep 24th 2011
edited by Armadillo
"In creating plots with improbable odds, we imitate the same antropic principle that made possible the extremely unlikely possibility where both reader, writer and plot actually exist and interact. The other possibilities simply don't matter."
This Troper

The quote, in addition to being overwritten in a confusing way, is quoting himself without context. If the troper has something to add he should add it, and quotes should just be actual quotes.

Removed (Re: Run, Lola, Run)
  • Intriguingly this is almost Truth in Television. The mistake most people make when dealing with roulette versus probability is that the dealer can give the wheel a 'memory' in a way they can't to a D6. Because the way the wheel is spun and the ball is introduced is not a controlled randomness (like a number generator) the outcome of the spin is not mathematically pure. It is not uncommon for dealers to get stuck in a section and if this occurs the chances of them hitting the same number twice, or even more times, can appear greater than the strict probability suggests. Not worth betting the house on, and won't help with the outside chances which remain close to even (pesky zero), but no gambler worth his salt will ever leave uncovered a number that just came in.
    • This is a textbook example of Gambler's fallacy. If this were possible - in other words, if in the long run the chance of the same number coming up twice were higher than random chance - anybody could have gained an edge over the house by simply betting the number that had come up in the last spin. (Any bias could be exploited. In fact, some gamblers have been able to win big money by observing the bias of an individual wheel - nowadays, by analyzing it with a computer, too - and betting accordingly.) In fact, such apparent patterns are something that can be expected in the long run. Just try writing down a random sequence of a hundred zeroes and ones ("heads/tails"), and compare it with an actual one generated by a computer - chance is that yours will be biased towards the next number being different from the previous one in order to make it visually seem more "random".
  • Also she utilised her scream-superpower
    • I am sorry I had to remove this, but it's natter and irrelevant to this trope.
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