History Main / MillionToOneChance

1st Oct '17 10:03:51 PM ADrago
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** And so, TelevisionIsTryingToKillUs. The real-life lesson taught to all medical providers is summed up as, "When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras." [[CompletelyMissingThePoint Unless you're in Africa.]] In other words, when a patient comes in with a set of signs and symptoms, start looking for the common sources of those signs and symptoms before you start thinking about weird diseases. From a patient care viewpoint, it makes sense; if someone comes into the ER with low blood sugar and altered mental status, starting immediate treatment for diabetic shock is almost always better than figuring out all the other strange ways the patient might have low blood sugar and AMS. The problem is that thanks to Hollywood and the news, "millions of diabetics averting catastrophe and remaining fairly healthy thanks to managed diet, exercise, insulin," isn't news, but "man dies of rare illness doctors mistook for diabetes," is. The public winds up WrongGenreSavvy, often thinking they have weird diseases rather than simple ones, or else expecting whole battery of tests when the answer is obvious from just a couple of blood tests and a quick examination. [[Series/{{House}} Dr. House]] hasn't helped matters much, and countless medical practitioners subtly curse that show (even if they're some of the biggest fans). So ([[EaglelandOsmosis should you be an American)]], yeah, you will likely know one person in your life with Tay-Sachs, Gauchier's, Huntington's, or something equally rare. [[http://www.cdc.gov/NCHS/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_19.pdf Almost everyone]] else you know will die to cardiovascular disease, malignant neoplasms, kidney or mental diseases, liver failure, the flu, and the occasional accident, murder, or suicide.

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** And so, TelevisionIsTryingToKillUs.JustForFun/TelevisionIsTryingToKillUs. The real-life lesson taught to all medical providers is summed up as, "When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras." [[CompletelyMissingThePoint Unless you're in Africa.]] In other words, when a patient comes in with a set of signs and symptoms, start looking for the common sources of those signs and symptoms before you start thinking about weird diseases. From a patient care viewpoint, it makes sense; if someone comes into the ER with low blood sugar and altered mental status, starting immediate treatment for diabetic shock is almost always better than figuring out all the other strange ways the patient might have low blood sugar and AMS. The problem is that thanks to Hollywood and the news, "millions of diabetics averting catastrophe and remaining fairly healthy thanks to managed diet, exercise, insulin," isn't news, but "man dies of rare illness doctors mistook for diabetes," is. The public winds up WrongGenreSavvy, often thinking they have weird diseases rather than simple ones, or else expecting whole battery of tests when the answer is obvious from just a couple of blood tests and a quick examination. [[Series/{{House}} Dr. House]] hasn't helped matters much, and countless medical practitioners subtly curse that show (even if they're some of the biggest fans). So ([[EaglelandOsmosis should you be an American)]], yeah, you will likely know one person in your life with Tay-Sachs, Gauchier's, Huntington's, or something equally rare. [[http://www.cdc.gov/NCHS/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_19.pdf Almost everyone]] else you know will die to cardiovascular disease, malignant neoplasms, kidney or mental diseases, liver failure, the flu, and the occasional accident, murder, or suicide.
6th Aug '17 10:27:19 AM Ferot_Dreadnaught
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* '''[[Literature/CiaphasCain Ciaphas Cain, HERO OF THE IMPERIUM!]]''' [[GenreSavvy consciously exploits]] this. He usually justifies doing so in the narrative by saying that a Million To One Chance is better than no chance at all in those situations, which is what he would have if he ''didn't'' take the risk.

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* '''[[Literature/CiaphasCain Ciaphas Cain, HERO OF THE IMPERIUM!]]''' [[GenreSavvy consciously exploits]] exploits this. He usually justifies doing so in the narrative by saying that a Million To One Chance is better than no chance at all in those situations, which is what he would have if he ''didn't'' take the risk.
20th Jul '17 12:10:48 PM LadyJaneGrey
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* Exploited in every episode of ''Anime/YuGiOh'', and all animes based on card games, for that matter: TheMagicPokerEquation is in effect. Although ''technically'', in most cases the chances of a player "miraculously" drawing the card he needs at the right moment (a "topdeck" as some players call it) is one in 40, much better odds than a million to one.

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* Exploited in every episode of ''Anime/YuGiOh'', and all animes based on card games, for that matter: TheMagicPokerEquation is in effect. Although ''technically'', in most cases the chances of a player "miraculously" drawing the card he needs at the right moment (a "topdeck" as some players call it) is one in 40, 40 or better (depending on how many cards are left in his deck, or better if there are multiple copies)), much better odds than a million to one.
6th Jul '17 8:14:40 PM Geoduck
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** Memorably [[InvokedTrope invoked]] in the novel ''Discworld/GuardsGuards''. The men of the City Watch are camped out on a rooftop to try to bring down a dragon by [[AttackItsWeakPoint shooting it in its "voolnerables."]] Problem is, they're all GenreSavvy about it, and after considering the situation - their archer used to win prizes for his marksmanship, he's using his lucky arrow, a dragon's "voolnerables" might be quite big - they think that it might ''not'' be a million-to-one-chance of success, but could be a near-certainty, or some awkward number like 999,943-to-one. So they end up trying to handicap their bowman by blindfolding him, putting soot on his face, and making him stand facing the wrong way on one leg while singing [[BawdySong the Hedgehog Song]], but still end up missing the shot when the dragon swoops at them. Luckily, as the narration points out, the odds of the Watch surviving a jump from the roof into a nearby pond ''do'' happen to be exactly a-million-to-one. [[spoiler:Later we learn their odds of hitting the dragon's "voolnerables" were more like zero - it was female.]]

to:

** Memorably [[InvokedTrope invoked]] in the novel ''Discworld/GuardsGuards''. The men of the City Watch are camped out on a rooftop to try to bring down a dragon by [[AttackItsWeakPoint shooting it in its "voolnerables."]] Problem is, they're all GenreSavvy about it, and after considering the situation - their archer used to win prizes for his marksmanship, he's using his lucky arrow, a dragon's "voolnerables" might be quite big - they think that it might ''not'' be a million-to-one-chance of success, but could be a near-certainty, or some awkward number like 999,943-to-one. So they end up trying to handicap their bowman by blindfolding him, putting soot on his face, and making him stand facing the wrong way on one leg while singing [[BawdySong the Hedgehog Song]], but still end up missing the shot when shot. Then the dragon swoops at them. retaliates by flaming the building they are standing on. Which is a [[StuffBlowingUp distillery]]. Luckily, as the narration points out, the odds of the Watch surviving a jump from the (exploding) roof into a nearby pond ''do'' happen to be exactly a-million-to-one. [[spoiler:Later we learn their odds of hitting the dragon's "voolnerables" were more like zero - it was female.]]
4th Jul '17 6:54:08 PM Entity1037
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In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense, that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told]]. What the trope hinges on is the reality that each audience member is an individual, and, thus, their own "number one": undeniably, each audience member is one in an increasing number from six billion, so, that single chance offers each of them the avenue to imbue it with themselves - "you are the the single chance"; if the chance is missed, it can break catharsis for the viewer, as they may feel, in a sense, that they are being left behind.

to:

In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense, that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told]]. What the trope hinges on is the reality that each audience member is an individual, and, thus, their own "number one": undeniably, each audience member is one in an increasing number from six billion, so, that single chance offers each of them the avenue to imbue it with themselves - "you are the the single chance"; if the chance is missed, it can break catharsis for the viewer, as they may feel, in a sense, that they are being left behind.
28th May '17 9:34:56 PM Az_Tech341
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In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense, that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told]]. What the trope hinges on is the reality that each audience member is an individual, and, thus, drawn to the number one: undeniably, each audience member is one in an increasing number from six billion, so, each member of the audience imbues that single chance mentioned with themselves - they are the the single chance; if the chance is missed, it can break catharsis for the viewer, as they may feel, in a sense, that they are being left behind.

to:

In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense, that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told]]. What the trope hinges on is the reality that each audience member is an individual, and, thus, drawn to the number one: their own "number one": undeniably, each audience member is one in an increasing number from six billion, so, each member of the audience imbues that single chance mentioned offers each of them the avenue to imbue it with themselves - they "you are the the single chance; chance"; if the chance is missed, it can break catharsis for the viewer, as they may feel, in a sense, that they are being left behind.
28th May '17 9:06:53 PM Az_Tech341
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In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense, that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told]]. Related is the reality that each audience member is an individual, and, thus, drawn to the number one: undeniably, each audience member is one in an increasing number from six billion, so, each member of the audience imbues that single chance mentioned with themselves - they are the the single chance; if the chance is missed, it can break catharsis for the viewer, as they may feel, in a sense, that they are being left behind.

to:

In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense, that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told]]. Related What the trope hinges on is the reality that each audience member is an individual, and, thus, drawn to the number one: undeniably, each audience member is one in an increasing number from six billion, so, each member of the audience imbues that single chance mentioned with themselves - they are the the single chance; if the chance is missed, it can break catharsis for the viewer, as they may feel, in a sense, that they are being left behind.
28th May '17 9:04:03 PM Az_Tech341
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In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense, that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told.]]

to:

In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense, that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told.]]
told]]. Related is the reality that each audience member is an individual, and, thus, drawn to the number one: undeniably, each audience member is one in an increasing number from six billion, so, each member of the audience imbues that single chance mentioned with themselves - they are the the single chance; if the chance is missed, it can break catharsis for the viewer, as they may feel, in a sense, that they are being left behind.
28th May '17 8:00:59 PM Az_Tech341
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In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told.]]

to:

In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense sense, that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told.]]
28th May '17 8:00:01 PM Az_Tech341
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In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other million times.'' This is TruthInTelevision in a sense that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told.]]

to:

In layman's terms: ''if there's a million to one chance against something of vital importance happening, then it's that one time rather than the other million times.'' nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine-thousand-nine-hundred-and-ninety-nine times''. This is TruthInTelevision in a sense that if an extremely improbable event occurs to someone, chances are that it's [[AnthropicPrinciple his story that's told.]]
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http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/article_history.php?article=Main.MillionToOneChance