A Song Of Ice And Fire

Also, forcing the Lords to always double check their orders makes you entire side mind-bogglingly inefficient in a world where it takes days if not weeks to send messages back and forth.

In hindsight, it's obvious that Roose was a bad choice, but he needed to put somebody in that position, and Roose made the most tactical sense.

Really, Robb's failing was the same failing he made everywhere else; he made all the right tactical decisions but all the wrong political decisions.

If I understand correctly the Boltons had more men than any of Robb's other vassals, and more men than Robb could field without the his vassals backing him. He was kept around because the Starks couldn't afford to lose him or turn him into an enemy.

Robb (like Ned and many others) believed that his bannermen would remain loyal to him. The enmity between the Boltons and Starks goes back for a long time (the Boltons were kings too once) but Robb likely thought the Boltons would see defeating the Lannisters as priority one and not betraying their king because I don't recall any mentioning of the Boltons openly defying House Stark after they bent the knee to them.

I think the Founder of House Karstark got his lands and titles by putting down a Bolton Rebellion.

What Logo said. Roose never gave Ned or Robb any reason to doubt his loyalty; in fact, Roose was instrumental in winning the battle of the Trident.

The flaying is just a rumour; the Umbers have some pretty dark rumours going around about them, doesn't stop them being loyal vassals (it's their loyalty that lets them get away with it, most likely). He gives Ramsay a speech about how you can get away with a lot of things as long as people don't know about them.

You're all underestimating how good Roose is at making his usefulness, intelligence, capability, obedience and apparent loyalty outweigh his... creepiness. Which is a pretty heavily tipped scale, when you look at it without the hindsight goggles.

edited 27th Aug '14 1:53:48 PM by johnnye

I also feel they need to point out that the idea of every Bolton, for centuries, turning out rebellious and creepy is a fairly ludicrous one. Compare it to the Lannisters- Tywin consciously tried to become everything his father wasn't. Imagine a young Roose doing something similar.

Or how's this for a hypothetical- Stannis kills Roose and Ramsay, but it turns out the Fat Walda is pregnant, so her child inherits the Dreadfort. There's no reason why that child would have to grow up evil.

Doesn't Roose send Robb or Cat a piece of Theon's skin? I'd say when people's skin starts arriving, it's a bit more than a rumor.

ETA: For what it's worth, I think Roose was actually reasonably trustworthy as long as he thought Robb has a shot at winning.

edited 27th Aug '14 3:04:38 PM by Cheshire

At that point, I think both Robb and Catelyn (especially Catelyn) were willing to overlook that. As long as Theon got his.

edited 27th Aug '14 3:20:07 PM by LogoP

Well in the chapter I just read (where Edmure agreed to marry Roslin Frey) they had just found out that Ramsay had just burned Winterfell to the ground. I would have punished Bolton for that.

He's like Littlefinger then.

They blamed that on Theon.

Yeah, pretty much. IIRC, Roose was all 'yeah, it's a shame my bastard wasn't able to get to Winterfell beyond Theon burned it to the ground,' and Robb said 'wait, Winterfell got burned to the ground? Damn, looks like I knew Theon even less than I thought I did.'

The reader, of course, knows that Theon did no such thing, and are thus tipped off that Roose is either lying or being tricked by Ramsay, but Robb doesn't know that.

To Robb Stark: How to win the War of the 5 Kings

• Send Lord Karstark with the diversionary infantry force down from the Twins. He might not be at Bolton's level for tactics or strategy, but he's still not the Greatjon "I'm gonna go smash Tywin's army even though he outnumbers me 2:1 cause I'm awesome" Umber. This way he'll stay loyal and you won't have to execute him. Also, you need Lord Bolton for something else (see step 3).
• Send Lord Mallister and his fleet to propose alliance with the Greyjoys. Acknowledge Balon's Kingship immediately, and offer to let Theon go home at the end of the war + the gold of Casterly Rock if he accepts the alliance. Keep Theon with you so he can help fight/convince you not to piss off the Freys over some random Westerling girl/act as collateral for the Greyjoy alliance.
• If you don't immediately win the war, you'll have to leave Riverrun and campaign. Leave Roose Bolton in charge of the forces at Riverrun when you do so and actually tell him the plan to trap Tywin in the West. Edmure's already proven himself incompetent as a battle commander or a strategist by getting his army shattered and himself captured by Jaime Lannister and an equally-sized army. You need a good commander to make sure Riverrun doesn't fall to Tywin's army. He can hit targets of opportunity without like Harrenhal or even King's Landing if Tywin is successfully trapped without requiring you to micromanage.
• Propose a marriage between Sansa and a (Willas or Loras) Tyrell when Catelyn tries to negotiate with Renly, to "sweeten the pot". That will probably get them to help your case. If anything, it will help convincing the Tyrells to choose you over the Lannisters.
• If you do manage to upset the Freys and the Greyjoys by ignoring previous steps, quietly offer some Freys you'll recognize them as Lord of the Twins if they can clear the line of succession, then have Lord Walder assassinated. Watch as the Succession Crisis tears their house apart, and the eventual victor is beholden to you for his title. Profit!

The Mallisters killed one of Balons sons. If anything, Balon would probably kill him.

The Tyrells won't agree to an Alliance, because they want the Iron Throne.

edited 30th Aug '14 6:34:43 PM by 940131

Edmure Tully is a competent commander and ANY general worth his weight would've done what Edmure had done at the Forks if they didn't have knowledge of Robb's greater plan.

The Freys had been obstreperous and insubordinate, but they hadn't done anything prior to the Red Wedding that would be usefully or proportionately punished by having the House tear itself to pieces. And there's not a chance of a clean assassination of Walder Frey given how competitive his sons are, the Twins would be a warzone within weeks just waiting for the Lannisters or Greyjoys to clean up the mess.

What would be a good way of dealing with the Freys, according to the knowledge Robb had at the time? I'd say... offering them his next-highest-value marriage prospect.

edited 2nd Sep '14 9:24:11 AM by johnnye

Wouldn't that be Roose Bolton?

It would actually be Sansa, I think. What probably happened, really, was that Walder asked for Robb and Sansa, and Catelyn argued him down to Robb and Arya.

And, really, who else could they offer? Hoster would've never allowed them to offer Edmure, and everyone else on their side is either married or a palpable step down from a Stark.

edited 2nd Sep '14 3:52:37 PM by Gilphon

Sansa isn't that far above Arya politically though, is she? Neither of them are likely to inherit Winterfell or Riverrun because they have three trueborn brothers and Walder wanted a grandson as an LP.

edited 2nd Sep '14 4:09:42 PM by 940131

Sansa is as far above Arya as Robb is above Bran.

Well- that's not quite true. Actually being is change rather than just in line increases Robb's value, and being crippled lowers Bran's.

But still. Sansa's children will have the best non-Stark claim to Winterfell and the North. That's worth a lot. That's why the Florents have so much leverage in the Reach, and why the Raynes felt confident enough to rebel. Having the second-best non-Stark claim, though? Considerably more meh.

I'm confused as to what stage in the narrative people are thinking of, here. The way I remember it, the Freys rebelled after Robb's wedding, and his response was to offer them Edmure (in addition to Arya, who was already betrothed but was lost by then). He's the best token Robb has at his disposal, as far as I can see. Sansa's a captive and already betrothed, the other Starks are believed dead, Edmure either is or is soon to become Lord Paramount.

It really was a good deal for the Freys, and if he were thinking straight Walder would have accepted it. Robb simply underestimated how pissed off Walder was, and how underhanded and extreme he was prepared to go in revenge. I'm not going to say it was the right call, but it was an entirely understandable one.

I understand what you're saying, but the fact that Sansa has three brothers ahead of her means that neither of them are likely to inherit anything. If Cat did convince Walder to choose Arya, I have little doubt that it was partially because Arya was missing and presumed dead.

The original deal was that they'd foster two Frey's at Winterfell, Robb would have Olyvar as his squire, Arya would marry Walder's Grandson(I think) and Robb would marry one of his daughters.

Eh? Walder was getting a better deal from the Lannisters in the short run. Robb's war was lost by A So S. Marrying Edmure would tie them to a dead cause.

edited 2nd Sep '14 4:29:58 PM by 940131

I though we were talking about the initial deal. I mean, once Robb pisses of the Freys, yeah, Edmure is the best option he has, and unless you've found some way to be damn near certain what's going happen, he has to either let the Red Wedding happen or give up on ever winning the Freys back.

… It wasn't a dead cause. Robb was winning the war before the Red Wedding. There was only really one battle that went badly for his side. A few things didn't quite go according to plan, but he was still basically in control.

And Re: Sansa: You're underestimating her value here. What Walder wants isn't ability to inherent, it's influence.

edited 2nd Sep '14 4:34:42 PM by Gilphon

Robb's cause was dead in A So S. Also, I don't think Robb was really winning the war by the middle of A Clash of Kings. Especially after Renly died. He won a lot of battles, but that doesn't mean he was winning the war. In the war he won 1 significant strategic victory. It was a great one. He broke up Jaime's army, lifted the Siege on Riverrun, united with the Riverlords and took Tywin's son hostage. But from that point on his victories were all tactical. The one time he tried to win another major victory, it failed because Edmure wasn't given clear instructions to stay at Riverrun. Meanwhile, the Iron Born invaded the North, Theon seized Winterfell and "killed" his heirs, Sansa was married to a Lannister, they lost the Karstarks and the Frey's, Renly was killed, the Boltons sacked Winterfell, the Tyrells allied with the Lannisters and Stannis was defeated at the Blackwater.

By A So S he was a dead man walking. Even if Walder Frey accepted Edmure and Robb went North to remove the Iron Born, he'd have to leave the Riverlords in below Moat Cailin where they'd be crushed by the Lannisters and Tyrells. The war was over when Stannis failed to take Kings Landing.

edited 2nd Sep '14 4:46:37 PM by 940131