Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality

I dunno about the whole children are less afraid of shit than adults thing.

When I was a kid I was terrified of everything. Especially things that were irrational and harmless, like having a coat draped over a chair so that it looks like it's a person. I would be afraid that the chair is some sort of monster and I would imagine all the horrible things it would do to me. I've seen a lot of bad shit in my life, but nothing really gets to me the way it did when I was five (Okay, fine. Zombies. But at least I know they're not real!At least not the drippy flesh, chase you down groaning and eat you type.).

Then Lucius would probably say "That student was probably just false memory charmed," and the court would probably side with him. Changing their minds would take much stronger evidence than that.

The court all believes Voldemort is dead, and it would take a lot more than the testimony of a memory charmed student to convince them otherwise. Remember how hard it was to convince the Ministry in the original canon?

Convincing people of something that something they already want to believe or are committed to is much easier than convincing them of something that is true, but they do not want to believe. Convincing them of something they do not want to believe, which is also false, is phenomenally difficult. You seem to be treating "fabricate some evidence" as an instant win condition where, once the evidence is fabricated, Harry can automatically win the case. But fabricating evidence so compelling that it would force a hostile court to change their minds would be a herculean feat, on top of the already great difficulty of reaching the point where he's in a position to fabricate evidence at all. This is not a path of minimum resistance.

I'm not convinced that destroying the dementor is a very good plan at all, but at least it provides the court with some immediate, strong evidence that Azkaban is not nearly as secure as they thought it was.

edited 23rd Mar '12 2:04:25 PM by Desertopa

But wouldn't taking in account the possibility of memory charms undermine their entire case?

Unless they were being willfully and selectively blind...

Of course they're being selectively blind. Draco explained near the beginning of the story how the court works. Normally they'll err on the side of assuming the simpler obliviation over more complicated memory charms, but if it's his house's honor that's involved, then his dad will pull the votes. They've already got manufactured outrage against Hermione, Lucius, despite having strong reason to believe she's not really behind it, has already committed to taking her down, they're going to be viewing any exculpating evidence in an extremely biased light.

Eliezer is probably also drawing deliberate parallels to the Amanda Knox case, you might want to read up on that if you haven't already.

edited 23rd Mar '12 2:10:58 PM by Desertopa

The simplest solution is to get Dumbledore to confess (whether true or not) to Mrs.Malfoy's murder since Malfoy already said that would work. I don't know if Harry has that kind of sway with the big D though...

Alternatively, Draco could defend her, agreeing that they were false memory charmed (since even he must realize how fishy this entire thing is)

Alternatively alternatively, nothing could stop this and it's a major shift in the story.

Draco isn't in the courtroom at the moment though, his testimony was read to the court by his father, so he's not available to testify or be questioned unless he suddenly and dramatically barges in.

Which is possible, though not very probable.

I sort of like the idea of there not being a solution however. The hero can't save the girl and takes a giant leap towards Dark Lord Harry.

That sort of stuff kind of me. I just don't get it.

You know, for a brief moment I hoped this trial would be like those in Ace Attorney. It would be a great opportunity to display the rational virtues. But the Wizengamot is not a tribunal.

edited 23rd Mar '12 3:04:00 PM by TheHandle

While it's possible that Harry just fails completely, it's improbable and hugely out of character for him; if all else fails, he can always threaten to storm Azkaban, as I said above. I can't see Harry sitting there letting something like this slide: despite the huge political fallout, he would see destroying Azkaban as infinitely preferable to letting Hermione be taken to Azkaban and die.

He doesnt have to personally storm anything, and in fact trying that is one of the gambits least likely to succeed - He isnt invulnerable! Telling everybody about the true patronus and the true nature of dementors leads inevitably to azkabans destruction. Or everyone getting eaten by dementors. One of those two outcomes.

edited 23rd Mar '12 3:43:33 PM by Izeinsummer

I don't know if we've sufficiently analyzed the situation if we're thinking storming azkaban is a solution.

Storming The Casle is always the best solution in Heroic Fantasy. Murder Is the Best Solution in an espionage or cloak-and-dagger or Western story. Love, tolerance and understanding are the best solution in sitcoms.

But those are the Wrong Genre Savvy. The genre we're dealing with is rationalist fiction. Think "clever" and "consequentialist", not "badass".

He did threaten Dumbledore with quitting Hogwarts and Britain, back when it was merely about Snape pissing on students. What's the outcome if he does that to the Gamot?

They don't know the prophecy, so no dice on that.

Remember: <I>"...Still, there is more than one debt owed to House Malfoy, and I think that my son, if he stood among us, would rather be repaid for his mother's blood than for his own. Confess your own crime to the Wizengamot, as you confessed it to me, and I shall -"

"Don't even think about it, Albus," said the stern old witch who had spoken before.

The old wizard stood at the podium.

The old wizard stood at the podium, his face twisting, untwisting -

"Stop it," said the old witch. "You know the answer you must give, Albus. It will not change for agonizing over it."

The old wizard spoke.

"No," said Albus Dumbledore.</i>

Dumbledore wanted to confess:1) that he killed Narcissa (even if he didn't - I think he'd sacrifice to save Hermione) or: 2) he wanted to reveal the true killer of Narcissa. (He knows what happened, or he wouldn't have told Lucius he did it. We don't know why he did so. Yet. But I'm curious at the author's hints.) But that would involve letting the Wizengamont know that Voldemort was still alive (somehow), so he couldn't do it.

It's clear that Quirrel is taking away Harry's friends, blaming it on Lucius and/or Dumbledore, just as he was going to use the dementor to kill Harry (also blaming it on Dumbledore). Remember the feeling he had of being passed by a great white shark after the bully gluing? Now Q is taking a bite out of Harry, in ways in which Harry doesn't realize Q's the source. I expect Q might ameliorate Hermione's punishment if Q thinks he could use H further, or to gain Harry gratitude (Q saved H when D couldn't/wouldn't) in some way that requires Harry to be publicly dark. Heck, Harry's already exposed as being dark.

Even after thinking it over further, I'm still thinking the original True Patronus idea is the only real option, barring some random thing I may have missed or heretofore unreleased information.

I'm trying to think of a scenario that would fit the taboo tradeoff, and make sense in this situation. Forcing Azkaban to be destroyed isn't a taboo tradeoff, it's fulfilling his moral obligations and his consequentialist obligations at the same time, basically winning on both boards.

For it to be a Taboo Tradeoff, he has to lose something valuable to protect a sacred value.

...

Oh.

It can't be that simple...

Guys, when in the year is it? Have we passed the Ides of March yet? Because I have a feeling the tradeoff might be Quirrel.

edited 23rd Mar '12 9:41:50 PM by Shinzen

Wouldn't Draco be more appropriate?

He couldn't reveal Quirrel's involvement in the azkaban matter without implicating himself as well.

He already considered doing that, to keep things from escalating further. He decided that it wouldn't be a good idea, but if he thought that it would save Hermione, that could be a very different matter.

I don't see an immediate avenue to helping her by implicating himself or Quirrell though.

Taboo tradeoffs... Oh fuck. The wizarding world has a a very strong taboo against free information exchange. That would be violated by the true patronus idea, but that is very far from the only dangerous idea Harry has had. He can *start* with that, continue by telling them about the silver/gold arbritage scheme and just threaten to keep going until they let Hermonie go.

edited 23rd Mar '12 11:18:57 PM by Izeinsummer

Harry has other stuff in his inventory. Consider as a taboo tradeoff, exchanging unique magical artifacts for mere peoples lives. Would Harry be willing to exchange a deathly hallow to the Malfoys for Hermione's life? Seems possible. Would Lucious Malfoy except such an exchange? Maybe. The cloak is rumored to hide people from death after all...

Can't the Hallow Cloak only work properly for its true owner, i.e. a descendant of Ignotus Peverell?

I think gifting would still work.

It's implied that giving the Cloak to someone doesn't work. Dumbledore says in his note to Harry that the Cloak "wanted to come back to [Harry]".

So far it hasn't failed to work for anyone else. That might just have been him anthropomorphizing his desire to give it back.

I doubt the court would consider Harry, who's not charged with any crime, trading an artifact to the prosecution on behalf of someone they believe to be an attempted murderer, to be doing justice. Remember, their goal is to put a terrible child murderer to justice, not extract concessions from Harry.

edited 24th Mar '12 7:55:08 AM by Desertopa

Attempted, alleged, and unlikely child murderer. Hermione is not Latarian MiltonLamilton Taeshaun.

Also after the rant at the begnning of the chapter about fake outrage being standard for poltics, and the general opinion on politics on LessWrong, I have significant doubts that the Wizengamot is at all actually incensed about justice, and are really just following the leader and attempting to gain political capital.

It's possible that will even drive the plot.

edited 24th Mar '12 8:25:55 AM by Shinzen