Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality

Y'all ain't thinking of nothin' Less Wrong ain't already thought of.

Ch. 14:

(Harry thinks:) Say, Professor Mc Gonagall, did you know that time-reversed ordinary matter looks just like antimatter? Why yes it does! Did you know that one kilogram of antimatter encountering one kilogram of matter will annihilate in an explosion equivalent to 43 million tons of TNT? Do you realize that I myself weigh 41 kilograms and that the resulting blast would leave A GIANT SMOKING CRATER WHERE THERE USED TO BE SCOTLAND?

Ch. 61:

"Severus," Albus Dumbledore said, and his voice almost cracked, "do you realize what you are saying? If Harry Potter and Voldemort fight their war with Muggle weapons there will be nothing left of the world but fire!"

...

"And in any case," Severus said with a slightly condescending smile, "Muggle weapons are not so easy to obtain, not for a thousand Galleons or a thousand thousand."

Doesn't Harry just Transfigure the devices he uses in his battles? thought Minerva, but before she could open her mouth to ask -

They ain't explored the implications, man, the implications.

Alright boys and girls, put on your thinking caps.

All I've got so far is the True Patronus Charm, cast right there, right then.

This is going to call for quite a bit more thought.

On a related note, the title of this chapter is the Horn Effect, which is part of the Halo/Horn effect, which states that your first introduction to a person or group will tend to shape their view of your basic nature. If your first introduction states something negative like "The weather is crappy" people tend to consider you a negative person (the Horn effect), if on the other hand you state something positive like "It's a great day!" people will tend to view you as positive (Halo effect)

I'm wondering how this applies.

edited 22nd Mar '12 7:26:09 PM by Shinzen

Oh hey look it's a chapter.

And the ending point here is just cruel. The only thing I can think of is Harry actually opening hostilities against all of magical Britain in fact as well as intent, and I just can't imagine that ending well at this juncture—it's far too soon.

Transfiguring a large quantity of knockout gas is probably out of the question, for multiple reasons...

Also it is doubtful that Harry could bypass the newly improved security in Azkaban for a second break-out, plus that would be an entire new story arc.

Where did Hermione learn the blood-cooling charm, if she ever did? (that would be a point to have been made before the vote of course) Does she know the motions, could she cast it again if someone imperiused her?

Convince Quirrell to help kidnap her before she gets to the prison? (Do they secure the transit areas fewer than six hours before she moves through them? (probably not, they are smart))

Do the false-memory thing to Draco to make him think he tried to kill, say, Dumbledore, and use that against Lucius?

Cast an emotional dampening spell on Lucius? (wouldn't work, even if he saw everything clearly he can't back down now without losing a lot of face)

True patronus that brings everyone to their senses somehow?

"Lose," then send a true patronus to destroy Azkaban from a distance?

edited 22nd Mar '12 7:38:23 PM by amplitude

Keep in mind that whatever solution comes up has to also clear Hermione so she can go back to school.

As Elizer has a professed hatred for the 'Marraige Law' concept I doubt the other idea of bringing Hermione into House Potter a bit early for protection purposes will work, and is of limited use anyways.

Awwww man, shit just got real.

Here is the solution I think. I'm putting it under spoiler tags.

Lucius claims to have been under Imperius by Voldemort. - Harry Potter is believed to have destroyed Voldemort. - Fred and George's prank pretended that James Potter had killed someone who had placed Arthur Weasley under the Imperius curse, and that this fact placed Arthur Weasley under a blood debt to James.

This means that Lucius Malfoy is under a blood debt to Harry Potter. And not just that but any *other* Death-Eater claiming to have been Imperiused by Voldemort, are likewise under a blood debt. (And also those people who were *genuinely* Imperiused by Voldemort, but these matter less)

edited 22nd Mar '12 7:43:26 PM by ArisKatsaris

Loophole in the laws for a "head of house," (house Granger, validated somehow by Draco's note addressing her as "First Granger") Loophole in the laws for minors within a house, allowing head of house (possibly Granger's parents) to take the punishment? (and muggles can't be sent to azkaban, so the punishment vanishes? (the wizengamot might just rule otherwise later (in the meantime, Harry convinces Lucius to drop charges, perhaps by promising to ally against Dumbledore)))

on Katsaris' idea: Hey, that might work! Assuming blood debts are considered important and real enough to cash in for attempted murder.

edited 22nd Mar '12 7:47:38 PM by amplitude

That's a good one, and theoretically possible.

On a side note, Less Wrong the website seems to have crashed the second this chapter came out.

Edit: To my above post about the Patronus charm, I just remembered that Quirell's solution to the "Dumbledore thinks Voldemort is Alive" conundrum involved Harry using his Patronus in public.

Editedit: To the suggestion Look at that chapter again. It says that the saving created a debt, but it doesn't specify it was a BLOOD debt, which is the important part.

edited 22nd Mar '12 8:04:40 PM by Shinzen

Nice one, Aris. I bet that's it, although I'll try to find other things.

Too late now, but I do wonder what would have happened if Harry or Dumbledore had been able to persuade Hermione that she'd been false-memory-charmed. Under two drops of veritaserum, she could have truthfully said that she didn't know what happened. Under three, she could at least have qualified her confession by saying that she truthfully believes it's false. Dumbledore should have talked to her while he was Time-Turned early that morning, but maybe he didn't have enough of the facts yet.

"But by then he'd already declared war on the country of magical Britain, and the idea of other people calling him a Dark Lord no longer seemed important one way or another."

Well my pet theory is going strong so far. Also just a reminder for anyone trying to figure out Lucius Malfoy Lucius Malfoy thinks that Harry Potter is really Pottermort. Although this makes the decision to send her to Azkhbahn interesting. Maybe Lucius is thinking that is Pottermort cares so much he could just break out Granger too since he knows Pottermort broke bellatrix out

Also to the above theoryHarry was merely reading a newspaper article, he could of easily read 'blood debt' and decided to just say a debt. Now we know that saving someones life creates a blood debt, and that attempted murder creates a blood debt, so it isn't unlikely that Harry could argue that rescuing him from an Unforgivable curse creates a blood debt.

edited 22nd Mar '12 8:42:55 PM by pringlescan

While Harry might make that mistake, I don't think Eliezer would.

edited 22nd Mar '12 8:45:46 PM by Shinzen

Stand up and loudly explain how a patronus works. This will make the entire wizengamot incapable of casting expecto patronum. Destroy the dementor before it eats anyone. Now they would *have to* shut down azkaban (Because the secret would get out). This would not exactly endear him to anyone at all, but they cannot kill him over it, because they need him to kill off the dementors before they run out of aurors who havent heard the truth yet. This doesnt actually free Hermonie, but it means that she would at least at most be in regular prison, so solving the case and getting her out again can take a couple of weeks without destroying her mind.

Aris Kataris, the trouble with that is that the Weasley twins' prank has already been revealed as a falsehood, that is, the contents of the Daily Prophet article have been retracted.

Desertopa, you didn't understand my post. The prank's story was a falsehood, but a believable falsehood, which means it referred to actual customs and laws.

I read it. Now,why is "Kyou no Hi wa Sayounara" playing in my head? Oh,right,this:

A friend thrown on the fire by an adult in charge,feeling of powerlessness,desperation - seeing more than a few parallels; however the main one is betrayal by an adult.

edited 22nd Mar '12 9:55:53 PM by AckSed

You're right, I did misunderstand, but I suspect that this still would not work, for any or all of the following reasons.

• Saving someone by accident would not incur a blood debt
• A blood debt cannot be called upon for repayment by a legal minor
• Special exceptions are made in cases such as Harry's where a person might incur blood debts from hundreds of people.

If this were something Harry could get away with, I would expect Dumbledore, who as Chief Warlock of the Wizengamot should be as intimately familiar with their rules as anyone, to have thought of it by now.

Perhaps, though, Harry has done something for Draco which could be considered to incur a debt, but the professors already rejected the possibility of using the time Draco locked him in a room under a torture spell, so it would have to be something else they don't know about.

So long as we're on the subject, wouldn't almost everyone owe Dumbledore a Blood-Debt for saving them from Grindelwald?

Just saw this review on ffnet. Mind = blown

" As I see it, there are three fairly workable plans for Harry in this situation. There are also a number of plans that are intensely un-desireable but have a good chance of successfully extracting Hermione from this situation. Since you already have the True End written, what do we get if we propose superior solutions? If a solution were elegant enough, would you use it in lieu of your previously written one? If not, could such a solution at least earn us a faster update?

With that said I will lay out what I feel are the best paths for Harry to take, in ascending order of elegance/appropriateness.

3) Sacrifice Dumbledore. This is a Taboo Tradeoff in that Harry is sacrificing a very powerful piece in exchange for a relatively weak one because of a sacred value. If the Boy-Who-Lived claims that Dumbledore slew Narcissa, and moreover claims to have sworn a Vow to oppose Narcissa's killer, the political fallout would be immense. Even if it's not enough to topple Big D, the sheer controversy it would ignite would give Lucius something he wants just as much as he wants to avenge Draco. Lucius would finally be able to fight for justice against his wife's supposed killer in the political arena he so dominates. The main problem is that, while the B-W-L is very highly esteemed, he doesn't actually have any direct evidence of Dumbledore's actions at the time. Secondary issues include losing Dumbledore's aid as the old wizard is forced to flee or fight for his political life.

2) Call in Imperious debts. As we discovered during Fred and George's prank, you receive magical debts from wizards when you kill the person Imperiousing them. This was suggested on LW but dismissed because it wasn't brought up during the section where Lucius' debts were discussed. However, that section could have been a red herring. Even if an Imperious debt isn't as strong as as life-debt, it is probably more than strong enough to change the _average Wizengamot member's_ vote. Everyone (save Lucius, who will Trade-off the facade of his own innocence in the Voldemort affair as he desperately defends his sacred value) who was or claims to have been Imperious'd will have to change their vote in accordance with Harry's wishes. Harry will be trading a very powerful asset for, again, a relatively weak one, but he won't have to lose Dumbledore and, while the press might go crazy with speculation, Hermione's doom will be averted. I believe this method is both more likely to work than 3) and less damaging to Harry himself. However, it does have one problem: we don't know how magical debts are enforced, or if Harry counts as having killed Voldemort. After all, not only did Voldemort not actually die, he effectively killed himself. Of course, since Harry is or contains Voldemort, he could still call in this debt in the latter situation. That seems rather poetic, in fact.

1) What I believe to be the most elegant situation. Harry will "sacrifice" himself. My thoughts run in parallel to Overlooked Supporting Cast on this matter, but I do have a few things to add. I say "sacrifice" because he will really be in almost no danger at all, despite his confession. Given what we have learned throughout this story, and given the name of this arc, and given the last paragraph of the chapter, this route will be the one that yields the greatest material payoff for Harry. The cost will be the core of his morality: his intellectual honesty.

This is a scenario that can only play out after Harry has accessed the total amorality and superior cognizance of his dark side. It requires him to deduce facts that his light side would never dream of, but which should come naturally to his dark side. We know that Voldemort (Harry's dark side) is an Occlumens of significant ability. We know that even warm Harry believes he can defeat Veritaserum. We know that Voldemort understands the concept of recursive deception, "insane pretending to be sane pretending to be insane." Harry will succeed by being "good pretending to be evil pretending to be good."

a) Dark side Harry will deduce that Lucius thinks he is Voldemort. He may or may not realize that he actually is; that's immaterial for this plot. The clues are plentiful in this chapter alone.

b) Harry cannot brazenly reveal his Voldemort mask to the Wizengamot. He must simultaneously cow Malfoy AND convince the general Wizengamot that his confessed attempted murder of Draco was justifiable.

c) This may seem impossible, but it's Harry's style to do the impossible. He will lead with the testimony that Draco hit him with a Torture Hex and locked him in a room alone. This will prompt the Wizengamot to inquire why.

d) Dark side Harry, who both smarter and more paranoid than warm Harry, is capable of accurately modeling Draco's general mental state circa Chapter 24. He will realize that Draco was probably at some point seriously plotting against Harry, regardless of Draco's present state of mind.

e) Thus, the fait accompli that Harry must present to the Wizengamot is this: Harry Potter used Hermione Granger as a weapon against Draco Malfoy. He did so not because Draco tortured him, but because Draco was plotting against him and actively working to betray and possibly kill him. Why would Draco do such a thing? Harry can speak of the prophecy; he can accuse Lucius, who was high in Voldemort's councils, of knowingly acting to destroy Harry Potter on behalf of his master, thus ushering in a new dark age, etc. Harry Potter's actions were a defense not only of the self, but of the realm. Harry only regrets that Draco had to die; the boy was oblivious, having been manipulated by his father.

f) The Malfoys, as we learned previously, have no plausible deniability. They are universally regarded as secretly evil, constantly plotting, and slick enough to get away with it. Harry can blunt any of their attacks on his credibility by describing under Veritaserum the conversations where Draco brags about his father's various justice-escaping methods. Obliviation, pensieves, bribery, "father's got the votes," etc. Even if the Malfoys release the truth, that Draco was plotting against Harry but not for the reasons Harry claims, their testimony can't be considered valid in light of such corruption. After all, it's far more believable that a Malfoy would plot evil rather than scheme against Harry Potter for "his own good." In light of Harry's accusation, even Draco's confession starts to look sinister: what a conniving deflection that was, to state that he wasn't plotting against Hermione - of course he wasn't, he was plotting against Harry! Look at that, the Malfoys were even desperate enough to False-Memory Charm Draco into believing that Harry can defeat Veritaserum. Dark families will clutch at any straw to avoid justice, tut-tut. That an 11-year-old boy could use occlumency strong enough to defeat Veritaserum is simply absurd.

On the other hand, while Harry is not unambiguously Light, he is still the Boy-Who-Lived. He is also the boy who got Snape (Lucius' close ally!) to stop being horrid. He is also the boy who destroyed a Dementor. This will all be supported by an investigation into Hogwarts itself, or can be demonstrated right there in court.

g) Lucius, who probably knows how much Voldemort hates bullies, will instantly understand that Draco has violated one of _Voldemort's_ sacred values, and will immediately comprehend the "true" plan. What a crushing masterstroke it is. In one swoop, Voldemort tests his most valuable subject's loyalty and dispenses deserved vengeance upon the child who dared torture him, dared rub the magical inadequacy of his new body in his face. The sublimely cruel irony that Voldemort is defeating him by accusing him of working for Voldemort is classic Riddle.

h) Lucius will believe that the entire drama is a set-up by Voldemort; it's a scenario where Voldemort can't lose. If Lucius had succumbed earlier or surrenders now, Voldemort will regain the absolute loyalty of his most useful servant. If Lucius fails to bend the knee and fights Harry Potter in open court - well, as Draco said, "Father could _lose_ that vote." And then, Lord Malfoy would be left with nothing. No more credibility, no more political capital, and no ability to defend Draco against the man he tortured. Lord Malfoy will be once more reminded why the wolf does not wake the dragon. He will understand that his move has been forced. He will lose.

This route fits the themes of this story: Harry accomplishes something considered impossible using crazy, unorthodox methods. It gives readers more clues as to the identity of Harry's Dark side, and reinforces the dangers of close-mindedness. Moreover, Harry chooses a path that simultaneously rejects the Blue of Dumbledore or the Green of Voldemort; his policies are the result of engineered reason, not arbitrary political distinctions. Perhaps most importantly, it draws upon everything we've learned in the past, marshals all that evidence and ingenuity, and draws it into a fist with which Harry defends that which is most important to him."

"You have five days to think of something."

Did he just add that to the end or it was always there?

Okay well aside from the blood debt from house lucius to house potter, al

Lets see if we can generate some alternatives. Now the first thing to do is discuss the problem.

Problem, Hermoine and Draco have been false memory charmed. Hermoine is about to be voted to have a blood debt to house Malfoy that only be discharged by ten years in Azhkbahn. Literary constraint problems, Hermoine and Draco have to be able to reconcile, and Hermoine has to be proven innocent in front of everyone, since it is too early for an end move that would remove Hermoine from Hogwarts.

Assets/Situation

Lucius Malfoy Thinks Harry is pottermort. He is also scared of him due to this As the boy who lived he has limited amounts of popular support,

Hermoines Wand/Draco's Wand - They could examine the spells last cast by the wands, although a clever cloak and hat would have used the wands to cast spells simulating the battle.

A time turner

An invisibility cloak

An absent professor Quirrel who is certainly up to something

An incredibly intelligent and focused Dark Side

The ability to partially transfigure

A strong understanding of science, perhaps that will allow him some sort of insight.

As mentioned earlier, a possible marriage of Hermoine to Harry in order to afford Hermoine protections given to a Noble house. If she is old enough to be sent to azkhbahn she is certainly old enough to be married.

Conclusions, Harry must rescue Hermoine immediately, the story can't go on unless Hermoine is cleared of all charges and can return to hogwarts. This takes care of any 'break into azkbhan again' or 'kill all the dementors' strategies. I highly doubt he will do the marriage avenue but I guess he might tell her he will divorce her right after the trial.

As proof that this works I actually came up with the first one half way through the list. Alternative #1 Harry uses the time turner and his cloak to fake up evidence saving Hermoine. For example he could go back in time, find the wand then find Quirrel who is in the same building last we heard, and get him to confound the wand erasing the evidence of a fight or at least place a false trail such as performing the obliviate curse with it, then replace it in evidence. Or he could drop back in time, and get Quirrel to false memory charm a classmate then have that person testify saying they went by the trophy room and saw someone cloaked/hooded leaving the trophy room at the right time, Fred and george would be a good match for this. Or they could specifically finger voldemort himself Alternative #2 Go back in time and find REAL evidence, something that could prove that it didn't happen. Right now I'm having trouble coming up with anything beyond the examine the wand thing. All he has to do is think it up, then it will magically show up then after the trial he travels back and makes it happen Alternative #3 He uses the blood debt of all the people who 'were under imperiuses' in order to get a delay for the trial or to bend the rules somehow, although this by itself wouldn't be enough, Hermoine has to be proven innocent completely for the story to continue.

We do not know that Voldemort is Harry's dark side. You might think it's obvious, but I for one don't think that making Harry into a horcrux either accidentally or on purpose would be characteristic of Quirrellmort, and I can't think of any other plausible explanation that would allow for Quirrell also being Voldemort.

The Malfoys lead a controlling faction of the Wizengamot; from the perspectives of these people, they are not Obviously Evil.

Lucius might just go up and testify under veritaserum "I have been involved in no such plot" right then and there. None of the Death Eaters are aware of the prophesy, and Harry has no reason to believe otherwise.

Since when? Snape and Voldemort are not the same person, and Voldemort has given no indication at all of hating bullies.

Anyway, this whole plan pretty dramatically fails the "never concoct a plan that depends on more than three things happening" maxim.

I like the Imperius debt plan, if I were Harry I would have tried bringing it up with Dumbledore in advance of the trial (Lucius's claim to have been under Imperius, and therefore in thrall to Voldemort, actually occurred to me before the issue of debts from Draco was raised, although I had completely forgotten about the Daily Prophet story mentioning a debt due to Harry relieving someone from Imperius via causing Voldemort to die.) But I decided pretty shortly after that if Dumbledore, who is pretty clever, and has been handling Wizengamot cases for longer than I'm alive, doesn't suggest this, then for whatever reason it probably wouldn't work. It doesn't hinge on any information that Dumbledore doesn't know, and he's had a decade to get used to dealing with Lucius's facade of having been under Imperius by Voldemort.

Whatever Harry pulls here should either entail costs Dumbledore wouldn't accept, hinge on information Dumbledore doesn't have, or simply be too devious for Dumbledore to have thought of, and I don't think that this would meet those criteria.

Sorry, to be clear - I'm not the one who wrote that review, I just saw it on ff.net. I'll try to address what I can, though.

"Lucius might just go up and testify under veritaserum "I have been involved in no such plot" right then and there. None of the Death Eaters are aware of the prophesy, and Harry has no reason to believe otherwise."

I think this part is addressed by "Harry can blunt any of their attacks on his credibility by describing under Veritaserum the conversations where Draco brags about his father's various justice-escaping methods." Didn't Draco tell Harry that the Malfoys never feared Veritaserum because they could Obliviate themselves or something? To an outside observer, it would make perfect sense for Lucius to remove all memories of serving Voldemort before attending any important Wizengamot meetings where he might be called to testify, wouldn't it? After all, he has a Pensieve and can even get them back. Harry can therefore twist it so that even Lucius' veritaserum testimony is not proof of anything.

EDIT: Oh, and we learn that Voldemort hates bullies at the conclusion of Self-Actualization.

edited 22nd Mar '12 11:17:57 PM by Lorthos

It's noted in-fic that Lucius is an occlumens of sufficient strength to beat Veritaserum, and that this is generally known.

I don't find a reason to even discuss any of these, since they're elements never hinted at or supported by the text, devised by you for the mere purpose of making the solution I proposed unworkable. Tell me which one of these is *actually* valid in the world of HP Mo R: You don't actually know which, if any. You devised them just now, *just* to make the solution unworkable.

This is the only useful objection, and to this I respond that Harry and Dumbledore were busy discussing the real possibilities for debts (Quirrel saving Draco, Draco torturing Malfoy) that it just didn't occur to them that Lucius' false claims of being Imperiosed can also create a debt.

Because frankly, in all the *previous* chapters, all the many *months*, even years, since we first learned of the concept of debts and of what Lucius was claiming in regards to Imperius — did *any* reviewer or commentator consider the issue of the debt owed to the Noble House of Potter from the Noble And Most Ancient House of Malfoy?

edited 23rd Mar '12 2:50:53 AM by ArisKatsaris