2016: A Damnable Year

He isn't even in office yet and has already created an international incident and put together a cabinet will of millionaires and questionable characters which shows openly his connection to Goldman-Sachs. And tried to volunteer the British Ambassador. Give him half a year and he will mess up truly big.

Does Fillon count as a demagogue?

In May, we Canadians get learn if the Conservative party here has gone bugfuck insane or not when they pick a leader. If we get a reasonable moderate, I guess we can breathe easy for five years with regards to political radicalization.

People keep predicting Trump's downfall is imminent, and assume he's an idiot. Yet he just keeps on winning, so I'm beginning to consider the possibility that what looks like blind luck may actually be calculated, if not by Trump himself than by someone who has his ear that he trusts unconditionally.

Which is not reassuring, by the way, not in the slightest.

edited 14th Dec '16 1:56:56 PM by CaptainCapsase

Yeh. A year ago the educated prediction was that Trump had no chance in the primaries, since then he has outsmarted the establishment figures of the two dominant parties in the US, the generality of the democrat party and general opinion, blindsiding his way into the presidency. He can be many things, but he is also one of the most clever political figures currently around, and his detractors would do well not to underestimate him.

Well, I actually predicted Trump winning, but I also predict that the American public will rue this choice pretty fast. When the "grab the pussy" incident happened I had hope again, but then the FBI "reveal" changed direction again.

The thing is that Trump isn't a clever business man. Or a good politician. He is a good entertainer (if you are entertained by this kind of bragging), nothing more, nothing less.

While some of his stances may appeal to a highly conservative/right-wing crowd (which will help in taking away some votes from the FN) on a more basic level, he doesn't strike me as being a demagogue or a populist. But perhaps some of our French tropers may tell you more about him (alternatively, you can check the French Politics thread).

He seems to be a ruthless people's manager/supervisor, though. That might help him in the long run, as long as he doesn't end up being completely surrounded by yes-men.

edited 14th Dec '16 4:29:21 PM by Quag15

Oh, Trump will make a huge mess, no doubt, but I think he'll be able to make it look for his followers like it'll be someone else's fault and retain popularity by blaming outsiders instead.

I mean, he got there in the first place through blaming others on the United States' problems. That's his M.O. and that's why his followers want to to hear and keep hearing. Populism is all about the idea of things, no matter how dire, being never our fault, and mostly never our leader's fault, but somebody else's. We keep failing? That's because we haven't supported our leader enough against that somebody, that's all.

edited 14th Dec '16 5:28:43 PM by NapoleonDeCheese

That makes a certain amount of sense, and I think it would be foolish to assume Trump will get booted in 2020 for certain, however it is also true that when it comes to who's fault things are, people are always going to default to the current administration as being responsible regardless of the complex causes and effects of various things. Xenophobia and racism will mitigate that but I think there's a limit to how far that goes when the whole country gets flushed down the toilet.

I mean, his hardcore base (mostly consisting of virulent racists and or other people who drank the Kool-Aid) will remain loyal but those aren't the only people who voted for him. The question is if the amount of people who are smart enough to regret their vote will be enough.

edited 14th Dec '16 5:33:05 PM by Draghinazzo

It is always easier to find a scapegoat if you aren't the one in charge. Trump is now exactly that. As soon as he takes office, everything which will happen will be on his head. There is the story about the plant which was supposed to move to Mexico and which he claimed he "rescued". Well, he actually didn't, only a percentage of those jobs will stay in the US. Don't you think that the other workers who will get their pink slip won't be angry about him bragging that he "rescued" their jobs when he clearly didn't?

Or just look at Brexit. Article 50 isn't even triggered and the NHS has taken even more cuts, and it becomes more and more obvious that there was no plan whatsoever for an actual Brexit. Meanwhile the prices for food and others essentials are rising.

The hardcore right fanatics won't care about that...but the common voter who might have been swayed beforehand to vent his frustration will think twice to assume that protesting this way is a good idea.

The Carrier deal is even worse since apparently there's nothing in the deal that prevents Carrier from moving the jobs at a later date than they had originally planned. My guess is that as soon as they are out of the public eye, they'll gradually move the jobs to Mexico. Or reduce salaries and benefits to the point that the workers quit on their own volition. Then send the jobs to Mexico. All while taking their tax breaks.

That's what happens when you don't let the local Union have a say in negotiations.

It's also more proof that Donald Trump is a shitty businessman.

Concerning Brexit, is it true that the EU is offering individual opt-ins for UK citizens who still want to be part of the EU, provided the UK allows it during the Brexit negotiations? How would that even work? Would the individuals pay a yearly membership fee or something, like a Costco membership?

edited 14th Dec '16 11:13:57 PM by M84

Not really...the suggestion came up, but it is unlikely to go through, mostly because it isn't actually doable. The EU is after all not a state and decisions regarding immigrations from outside the EU aren't really an EU matter (Which is exactly what makes the relocation of the refugees in Greece so difficult). I think in the end the EU will encourage its member states to fast track citizenship and worker permits for UK citizens already living in the EU and that will be it.

I gotta say, the EU leadership is handling Brexit with a lot more grace than I would have in their shoes.

Example: if the UK during negotations asked if they could pay a fee to stay in the single market, I would cheekily demand 350 million pounds a week.

Honestly, the EU leaders have bigger things to worry about than Brexit. Before article 50 is triggered there can't anything be done anyway.

@Captain Capsase

I think Swanpride has a point. It may not be the same once Trump is in charge.

I keep getting reminded of Tony Abbott's run as PM of Australia. Sorry for my parochialism, but the similarities keep piling up. Relentlessly blunt politician who attacked and insulted and threw out weird bullshit conspiracy theories about climate change that were transparent lies. In short, lied and bullied his way to the top. Commentators outside the hard right were positive he could never become leader of Australia because of his sexism, extreme conservatism, and flat-out bizarre gaffs and nonsense. His party was voted into government with him taking the top job.

Suddenly, his lies mattered - and hurt him - because he could not deliver. His default strategy of attacking the other side fell flat when it was his responsibility to run the show, and no longer his opponents'. His leadership imploded and now he is on the sidelines making rebellious noises and dreaming about a comeback.

Just because you defy all expectations running for the top job, doesn't mean you can survive in the top job. Maybe this is how it will be with Trump. I don't know. Maybe.

edited 15th Dec '16 5:08:14 AM by editerguy

Yep, and unlike Australia (no offense) people actually pay attention to what is going on in the US.

I think the most important thing is now that the established parties signal to the population that they have heard their worries and that they intend to follow up on the demands which are reasonable, instead of outright dismissing the concerns in question.

I would hope that's the case, but I'm not holding out hope. Trump seems poised to coast on the relatively stable economy his predecessor left him with, and if my reading of him is correct, it's very, very likely that his first few years in office will be focused on Bread and Circuses to get people on his side, all while exploding the deficit and leaving the bill for the democrats.

Add to that the likelihood that things in the middle east will begin to calm down a bit, and it's entirely plausible that Trump will once again take credit for other people's work.

edited 15th Dec '16 7:04:33 AM by CaptainCapsase

It seems like you are assuming that the economy is the only thing that matters. Or for that matter, that the federal government will not break it.

I'm assuming that Trump is unlikely to attempt to enact his more let's just say controversial policies before he shores up his approval rating.

edited 15th Dec '16 7:09:13 AM by CaptainCapsase

Yes, because it's not like Congress won't do it instead. Or for that matter, we have no indication that Trump understands how not to break an economy.

A lot of what will happen to Trump depends on how the rest of the world reacts to him. If enough leaders opposing his views play into his baiting game, they'll be just giving him fuel to keep playing his 'unite my people under me against an outsider boogeyman' strategy. But then they shouldn't let him walk all over them either.

It's a very delicate balance.

We'll see. Currently I am not even sure if Trump will take office. And I am not talking about wishful thinking, the US looks close to sinking into unrest all on its own.

In Berlin, nine are dead after a truck drove into a Christmas market.

2016 just doesn't know when to stop, does it?

And Russia's ambassador to Turkey was assassinated on camera.

And the killer, due to being filmed in a multitude of expressions and poses (and a nice suit) is already a twitter/fb meme.

edited 19th Dec '16 4:07:52 PM by FFShinra

And there was an attack on an Islamic centre in Switzerland.....

I just hate this kind of terrorism. It was bad enough when Ireland spend all its time with bomb attacks, but those were at least designed to hit officials. But there is no way to deal with people who would just kill random people on the streets, including children. I always scoffed over the notion that there are rules in war, but in a way, we were more civilized when we were still fighting man to man.