The Global Refugee Wave and Migrant Crisis

The idea that ISIS and Saddam would have anything in common is even less plausible than the idea (actually proposed at the time of the invasion) that Saddam and AQ were working together. A secular regime like Saddam's is anathema to the fundamentalists, and a good argument could be made that the entire movement rose up at least partly in reaction against them.

A world without the Iraq invasion would be to different for us to get, without the shadow of Iraq it's possible that we would toppled Assad and Saddam during the Arba Spring then gone and done real state building.

But in a world where for some reason we didn't act against Assad or Saddam during the Arab Spring, yeah we'd seen Iraq being like Syria.

Honestly though, Libya is still less of a cluster fuck then it would have been if we hadn't battled Gaddafi, as Libya would have become like Syria, which it's still just better than. Though I'd rather we actually fixed Libya, but the thing that stopped us doing that isn't that we intervened, it's the fact that we intervened in such a limited manner.

It was all the people claiming that we couldn't possibly succeed at nation building and it would be a waste of time to try that prevented us from trying, and now gleefully point to Libya as proof that intervention is a waste of time and never works.

ISIS - Saddam is the parallel to Hezbollah - Assad. Both dictators are secular in alignment (basically Arab Fascism), while the militias they employ are religious zealots. The sectarian ties would still bind them together. ISIS is definitely more severe than Hezbollah, but they also have no state backers, so they have no incentive to moderate themselves.

Off-topic, i know.

How many refugees are fleeing Iraq in the current mess?

Most of Iraq's refugees - with the exception of Kurds - would probably be internal, at this stage. (And this is just my guesstimation, basically. I didn't actually check.)

According to wikipedia, Iraqui refugees are mostly moving to either neighboring states or within Iraq with only a comparatively tiny fraction travelling farther. They're also unusual in that they mostly don't end up in refugee camps but in cities.

topic people.

On the subject of Syrian refugees, I have to wonder if these refugees are fresh from Syria, or are getting pushed out of the likes of Lebanon and Jordan.

Thought this is probably a better topic to post this than in the Eastern European Thread. Browsing the net recently I have found this little thing. Please excuse me the Polish title and subtitles; the woman speaks English, so it should be understandable.

...I am a little worried. I understand that these people still need some help, but perhaps Hungary is not mistaken about keeping them under close watch.

Other clips I have found included migrants throwing bottles of water given to them by Hungarian police on the rails like trash and a scuffle between Hungarian football thugs with more migrants; in the latter case the migrant - with a kid on his shoulders, no less - was the first to throw a punch and a whole crowd followed soon after, thankfully dispersed by the police.

In Britain: Migrant crisis: UK must do even more to help refugees - George Osborne

What the Eu should do is offering financial aid to Eastern European countries that are willing to take in more refugees, considering those countries are facing severe demographic challanges, that decision would ease the burden of countries like Germany while helping those countries like Poland who desperately need more immigration.

Honestly, I am very curious about the long-term consequences of the refugee crisis on German foreign and demostic policy. So far any pariticpation in a military intervention in Syria would have deemed as untinkable, but if the number of refugees really does end up as hig as projected within the next 12 months, I would not be surprised if our government got second thoughts about it.

edited 6th Sep '15 5:35:51 AM by Zarastro

A charity convoy organized in Austria to evacuate migrants in Hungary is underway. Hungarian authorities warned them that complicity in someone else's illegal crossing of the border, inbound or outbound, is punishable by up to three years in prison. Because of this, the organizers are warning the volunteers driving the cars to not make selfies of themselves or their cars because Hungarian police might arrest them for human smuggling.

Migrants are now not even trying to register as per Dublin III but are just making a run for Austria, fearful of being trapped here.

Merkel is being criticized by her own allies for her stance regarding the migrant question.

Israel says they won't accept refugees because they don't have the capability to house and take care of them, being such a small nation.

The EC has a new proposal in the quota question. Each country would receive 6000 euros per migrant, with the migrants allowed to stay for two years. Those countries who refuse to accept the quota system can be exempt in exchange for financial contribution and will not have to take in refugees even if the Ukraine crisis turns worse and refugees start coming from there as well.

Who do you mean by Merkel's "allies"?

The CSU, one of the parties in the German govt.

All of this, from the violence on the ground between refugees and nationalists, the damage and vandalism that is occurring, the smuggling and the crime, the high cost, the deaths of young children, all of it is a symptom of the fact that the world doesnt have a refugee strategy that makes any sense. Even if this latest legal scheme works, what makes them think the Syrian crisis will be over in two years? The average stay of a refugee in a camp world-wide is five years, and increasing.

Even with financial aid I would say it would be hard for us in Poland to house any refugees.

Plus, I sincerely doubt the migrants themselves want to go to us or any other country that doesn't offer such good conditions as Germany. Plus plus, how could EU even monitor if a refugee has overstayed their welcome in the country of choice?

This all sounds like it's done out of political corectness, and the notion is worrisome.

It's being patched together in the middle of an ongoing crisis, and is basically a bunch of short term solutions to a long-term problem. You are right to be worried. One of the reasons I posted that article about the Turkish refugee camp was to illustrate that there is in fact a better way (not a perfect way, but a better one). Turkey, with enough financial assistance, would be willing to host a lot more refugees, under conditions that would reward them for staying there, within walking distance of their own homes.

I had that feeling for a while that Merkel doesn't really care what Seehofer's saying about anything - especially since both the SPD (the more important coalition partner) and the opposition are backing her up in this case. The CSU isn't really a factor outside of Bavaria. The only reason they even got some cabinet posts is because of their union with the CDU.

And this is all happening in the middle of a continuing Economic/Political Crisis.

edited 6th Sep '15 9:06:10 AM by Greenmantle

This is depressing. All those poor people want to come in and right wing politicians and racist Europeans get so pissed... Where are all those SJ Ws and feminists now!? What happened to all that bull about equal rights!?

Sorry, I'm just so pissed at this injustice... Europe is rich enough to support every immigrant who wants to come in. No money? Have every local pay immigrant tax and there you have! Big buck to support those in need until they get on their feet. Are there really no people who have houses? Just let one or two guys live in your house until they get a job and their own place. All this whining in media is making me sick. Europe could easily handle millions of immigrants if they'd come. This number is nothing.

All I'm seeing is thinly veiled racism, Islamophobia and hypocrisy from our so called equal rights supporters.

I can't figure out, is this opposition coming from Christians or atheists. And feminists are also suspiciously silent - they were the ones to claim that their movement is all about equality.

edited 6th Sep '15 11:16:46 AM by Ferbesh

... maybe they are busy readying their cars for the ferrying?

Wait what?

I mean ignoring your frankly foolish assumptions about how rich all Europeans are (many are un/under employed and barley able to stay afloat, the money is in the banks of the banks and the wealthy, not the regular people) where this assumption that the people campaigning for refuges to be welcomed aren't the same people who at other times campaign for equal rights for women? I've seen a ton of overlap myself, certainly I think you'll find that if you ask people about the issues then you'll get responses from equal rights campaigners that indicate that they'd like us to help refuges.

I mean sure the internet is going to be quieter, but that's because this issue doesn't affect the US, so the American equal rights campaigners aren't going to be involved here, and they're rather noisy on the net compared to other groups. Though frankly I'm sure if you asked them they'd agree that this situation is bad and that more should be done to help.

edited 6th Sep '15 11:23:05 AM by Silasw

Both, and support for them is coming from both as well. This isn't a religious issue, and Religion isn't politicised here as it is in the US.

edited 6th Sep '15 11:25:16 AM by Greenmantle

Yeah I believe that a lot of the "Christian" political parties are coming strongly against the refuges, but the actual Churches are saying that we need to be more welcoming and accepting. But that's almost standard in some places, the Conservative Party and the Church of England get in fights a lot over here.

Europe doesn't live to one set standard, we have both opulent wealth here and crushing poverty, your inability to understand that indicates that you don't actually know how "Europe" (which is far from one entity) lives.

No, that's the exactly opposite of what I just said. The equal rights activists are the people at the forefront of calling for help for refuges. But I admit the people I'm talking about also don't declare that sitting with ones legs open is sexist, they're actual mainstream feminists of the academic sort, not the singular nuts on social media whom you seem to be taking to represent all of Europe's left.

This is mainstream Swedish feminist groups who've been asked about this stuff? Care to share a link for that?

edited 6th Sep '15 11:38:59 AM by Silasw