French Politics

Probably need a French person to confirm it, but from the way somebody explained it to me it's normal for the presidential candidate to step back from any party positions - usually, that happens after they became president, though, not before.

This might just be Le Pen being overly confident.

edited 24th Apr '17 4:33:59 PM by DrunkenNordmann

The word "congé" tends to imply a temporary leave, almost like a vacation.

Europe Rallying
French election: Global reaction to Macron-Le Pen race

I think what people forget is that Brexit and Trump were within the margin of error. Le Pen is not even in the same state as the margin of error.

edited 24th Apr '17 4:45:25 PM by Aqueos

It's both. You don't want to have a neoliberal candidate just like you don't want to have a fascist candidate although when it it's between the two then take the neoliberal.

Need I explain neoliberalism:

edited 24th Apr '17 4:47:13 PM by MadSkillz

Yeah, even then Brexit and Trump only won by 2 to 5%. Macron is far ahead of Le Pen in the runoffs already, and has been endorsed by every other political candidate that was in the race except Melenchon, who didn't endorse anyone.

edited 24th Apr '17 4:48:23 PM by FireCrawler2002

Exactly. And Silver (538 guy) is calling out everybody on twitter about that.

And Mélenchon is convening la France Insoumise to pick somebody to back. I'm betting he backs no one, but if he'll back anyone I think he'll back Macron.

Pretty much. He was one of the more accurate american pollsters when Trump was elected (he projected a 30% chance of Trump).

edited 24th Apr '17 4:51:31 PM by Aqueos

Oh, that was made clear earlier. Plus France ==/USA ^note  Here our Fillon & Le Pen would have been of the same party and would often win while Melenchon would be non-starter. I was emphasizing that Europe's public officials are unapologetically (and quickly) lining up behind Macron—except Russia.
I expect that they're working out policy with Macron in the background already, and no doubt quite a few of them are breathing easier with Trumpism staying across the pond.

Though after 2016, I don't blame anyone for being jittery and biting their nails until the end.

I mean I'm not completely calm, Macron could have some massive skeleton in his closet or something, but as things are Le Pen has hit a wall. And yeah, the only people who like Le Pen are Russia (who literally funds the FN as it would weaken Europe) and Trump (who has a platform not unlike Le Pens, but it's less harmful given his ineptitude and the fact that our constitution has more or less neutered his anti muslim measures)

It's not really a huge surprise though, Le Pen is the possible dissolution of the EU, Macron is business as usual.

edited 24th Apr '17 5:05:51 PM by Aqueos

Not to mention Trump's mishaps with Syria and North Korea have probably made the French very wary about electing a candidate like that.

The thing to look out for is Macron having massive skeletons in the closet and low enthusiasm from people who didn't vote him.

Maybe appeal to the French's superiority complex over Americans and British and get them to show their superiority by not voting for a far-right maniac unlike the US and UK?

edited 24th Apr '17 5:17:02 PM by FireCrawler2002

It's a bit surprising to see you here, buddy. I didn't know you followed French politics.

Anyway, while a big part of me is relieved that the centrist is likely to win, there's another part that feels suffused with a sense of general foreboding. It's clear by now that this new swerve to the radical nationalist right in the West is a macro-phenomenon, and it's not just going to go away by itself. Macron's election, while indisputably good in light of the alternatives, comes across as a kind of holding action to me, and I don't see any great, sweeping solutions coming from anyone.

edited 24th Apr '17 5:21:47 PM by Gault

The Alt-Right already took a big hit by losing in Austria and the Netherlands, so a loss in France would probably be the death knell for the Alt-Right, and a loss in Germany after that would pretty much be the end of them.

edited 24th Apr '17 5:20:20 PM by FireCrawler2002

The alt right is an american thing, europe is just blunt and tends to call them far right or ultra nationalist parties. Geert Wilders lost in the Netherlands (as you mentioned), and it hasn't really taken any wind out of their sails. And heck, Erdogan just basically broke Turkish democracy /:

edited 24th Apr '17 5:38:24 PM by Aqueos

Turkey was never really a Liberal democratic country to begin with, being mostly Muslim and Middle-Eastern/Western Asian, bordering two extremely violent neighbors (Syria and Iraq), censoring stuff like Youtube in the 2000's because of insults towards Ataturk, constantly punishing their Kurdish minority because of the PKK and picking fights with Greece over stuff like Cyprus.

edited 24th Apr '17 5:46:01 PM by FireCrawler2002

However, it was mostly secular government-wise; I do not even want to consider what Turkey will look like after another year of Erdogan courting religious extremists.

Honestly, in the post-information era we are in, where major political leaders can outright lie in everyone's face and get away with it with stronger than ever support, it is highly symbolic for Le Pen to be second instead of first - and not that far away from third. A year ago she was polling at 30% and the FN consistently won the first rounds of various elections in the last 5 years, and here she is beaten by a guy who created his party a year ago and is her complete antithesis.

And we are in a country that still suffers from an economical slump, even though it is slowly improving. It was a highway for a populist, and she didn't even won R1. To me it is reassuring, especially as a moderate guy beat her - it might send a message both to the left and the right, who picked not moderate at all candidates and are now licking their wounds. Especially in the right, where all the ambitious young guys followed in Sarkozy's steps (huge emphasis on security, anti-immigrant rhetoric, etc).

Still disappointed by Melenchon, as he was a vocal proponent of "anything but the FN" back in 2002 where the other finalist was more right-wing than Macron. Lack of consistency here. He could have said "abstain or pick macron, but above all don't go brown". A poll today suggested one in five Melenchon voters would pick Le Pen in the second round - Macron gets 51% of them, and the rest doesn't pick. That's about 4% of first round voters ready to jump from Melenchon to Le Pen.

LR really dropped the ball with Fillon here. Juppé probably could have cruised to first. That's the price you pay by holding primaries though.

edited 24th Apr '17 6:42:22 PM by Aqueos

That is true for most eras and places, though. Plenty of political leaders lie and distort if it helps to further their cause (this is especially true during election times), regardless of where they sit in the political spectrum. And, sometimes, publicity works in their favour, thanks to the way the media conducts itself.

The only difference is that more people are aware of it now, because the actions and discourses of certain politicians and movements (e.g. Trump, Brexit) in this day and age (finally?) broke their political suspension of disbelief.

edited 24th Apr '17 6:49:49 PM by Quag15

That's a curious perspective. Certainly cheerier than I feel at present. So I take it you think that, long-term, this is a good thing and not a bad thing?

I wouldn't be too secured just yet....it is still two weeks. Two weeks in which we will read all over social media that Macron is a banker and a neoliberal who will wreck France until people will start to believe it. And that is if they don't find dirt on him in order to wreck him. Two weeks is an eternity in politics. Like, if either Brexit of the American election had been decided Two weeks earlier, the result would have most likely been different.

No, the difference is that in the past, politicians tried to tell believable lies. Nowadays they just sprout easily refutable lies and somehow get away with it if. I really doubt the intelligence of the average voter at this point. Especially when he falls for the "man/woman of the folk" lie from people who were either born rich or a living in a nice little mansion somewhere.

edited 24th Apr '17 9:23:56 PM by Swanpride

Eh, maybe most of them of distrust him are just plain jingoistic internet trolls.

Or maybe you're just falling victim to the tricks of the Vocal Minority.