General Middle East & North Africa Thread

One of the silliest headlines that I've read in a local newspaper:

The Saudi Ministry of Higher Education has suspended any and all further contracts with one of the Arab countries — and no, they don't even bother naming said country — on grounds that it does not want any "extremist ideologies" to infect their education system, pending the establishment of procedures for filtering out undesirables during the personal interview phase via scruntizing their ideological beliefs... somehow. Apparently, this was in response to allegations that several contracted lecturers had gone into politics during their lectures.

Best guess is they're targeting Muslim Brotherhood-sympathizing academicians, probably Egyptian ones, in relation to the unrest in Egypt. No idea why they're all hush-hush on the country's name, though.

edited 6th Jan '14 1:55:04 AM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Goddammit, Saud needs to go. Those guys do not deserve their wealth or their oil.

Let the saner Sunnis take over and rename it Sunni Arabia.

edited 6th Jan '14 1:58:48 AM by Sledgesaul

Or just Arabia.

I'm having to learn to pay the price

That works better. Not sure who'd take over after Saud, though.

A democratic republic?

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

It'll probably turn into a People's Republic of Tyranny soon enough, though.

Keep Rolling On

I reckon the Saud's are playing the long game, they'll modernise just fast enough to keep people from staging an actual revolution.

Give it 100 years and it'll probably be a constitutional monarchy.

"And the Bunny nails it!" ~ Gabrael "If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we." ~ Cyran

Honestly the KSA looks a lot like the United Kingdom did in the 19th century, with the slow reforms and relative stability compared to its neighbors. Give the population just enough to keep them from overthrowing you while still maintaining the authority of the major power blocs.

Syria and other states are taking the Russian approach (total resistance to all reforms) and we all know how that ended.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.

The Jordanians are taking the same approach, too.

Keep Rolling On

I'd actually give it two decades at the most for the first signs of true change to the status quo — whether negative or positive — given that most of the dynasty's internal politics are dominated by the elder generation, who are quite elderly by now (around 80s to 90s for most of them) and several of them have been dying in rapid succession over the past few years (including a few first- or second-in-line successors to the throne).

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Bahrain has accused Iran's Revolutionary Guards of providing opposition fighters with explosives training in order to carry out attacks in the Gulf kingdom, also announcing that it had arrested five suspects.

The White House on Monday hit back at lawmakers critical of its handling of Iraq, daring Republican leaders to argue for reinserting troops into the war-torn country amid escalating violence.

The Obama administration on Monday spelled out its conditions for Iran to play a role in Syrian peace talks after Secretary of State John Kerry opened the door for the country's participation.

Everything is Possible. But some things are more Probable than others. JEBAGEDDON 2016

That was badass of the White House to call the Republicans' bluff there. Even conservatives can't argue for troops again.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Revolutionary Guards really were instigating something. At the same time, I don't trust the Gulf kingdoms, who hate Persians, so meh.

Why set a precondition that you know Iran don't accept? Probably because you don't really want Iran participating in peace talks with Syria.

The Saudis aren't great by progressive standards, but they're not card carrying, moustache-twirling villains either. They do care for their people after all, but being a monarchy that takes its power from tribal affiliation and tradition (that is, after all, how Ibn Saud was able to cement his conquests), they can't just open the floodgates lest it lead to the chaos of the republican Arab world. Also, Abdullah at least is trying to reform the system without pissing off his brothers and nephews...or the Wahhabist clergy with whom the family has a covenant.

Right now, he's trying to reverse a fifty year old region-wide policy of businesses not hiring locally (I speak from experience, with my father being one of the many engineers that worked in Kuwait), create a consultative assembly that can at least have some power (without requiring a nobility revolt a la the British), and trying to reform the House of Saud itself.

And that thing about the mosques seems to be in line where only government approved clerics can give out fatwas which, while it gives the King a great deal more religious power, it also prevents some charismatic joe nutjob living in his basement from giving fatwas that might be more amenable to extremist interests. If you don't think thats a problem, just look at Pakistan, which has a dozen major clerics all backing some school or sub school of Sunni Islam with their own party and militia/terror group. So the power goes to the King, but it also gives the faith some (in my view) needed structure.

Given internal and external pressures, and comparisons to the region as a whole, I'm willing to cut the Royal Family some slack. Besides, reforms introduced slowly over time have a tendency to stick as opposed to reforms by revolution. Is it self-interested? Yes, that's part of it, but they do care for their own people to prosper and are pragmatic enough to see it done.

So count me among those who see KSA becoming a constitutional monarchy by the end of the century. Possibly earlier.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

This could've been done just as well if the approval process was handled by a council of senior clerics rather than having the government shove its nose into it. I'm more inclined to believe that the primary motive was not just sidelining militant extremists, but also those who speak in favor democracy and liberalism (and not necessarily the "we must become just as liberal and secular as the West!" kind of liberalism); the latter group have been and still are the subject of very draconian crackdowns, the latest of which handed out several long jail sentences and harsh corporeal punishment that are very disproportionate to the defendants' "crimes".

Did you know that they've even cancelled travel permits for several of them without prior notice?

edited 6th Jan '14 3:55:03 PM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Not denying they have self interest in doing so, but I am trying to say it's more than merely that or some kind of Bond villainy. They're trying to keep it from being too extreme either way (and in the current mood of the region, maybe those calling for democracy are rocking the boat too much) in order to maintain stability. Are they overreacting? Most likely, but considering the flux of the region, it's understandable.

As for the punishments, Saudi justice in general, even for legit crimes like theft, is draconian. Therefore I don't think its because the guys are speaking of progress that's earning the harsh punishment rather than breaking the "no rocking the boat" rule.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

General: US should ‘wait and see’ before sending troops to Iraq.

First batch of chemical weapons leaves Syria.

Everything is Possible. But some things are more Probable than others. JEBAGEDDON 2016

Those are more for the Arab Spring thread. Let's keep this thread to things not related to the protests and related events.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Saudi Arabia pledges $3 billion to Lebanese army.

Everything is Possible. But some things are more Probable than others. JEBAGEDDON 2016

Question is, what will the Lebanese Army buy with that money? Most of the articles since news of that broke a few weeks back have said the French will sell Lebanon something. No question on what.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Hezbollah basically runs Lebanon, right?

No, though they do have more influence over political decisions through mere threat of arms than anyone is comfortable with, and are sufficiently armed and dug-in that direct confrontation is almost certainly out for now, for reasons of too many collateral casualties and damage in the inevitable civil war.

edited 8th Jan '14 6:41:17 PM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

The parliament of Morocco has unanimously amended an article of the penal code that allowed rapists of underage girls to avoid prosecution by marrying their victims.

Everything is Possible. But some things are more Probable than others. JEBAGEDDON 2016

Oh, YES! <air-punch>

That's rather stomach-churning.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

In other news, that one Shura Council member's^note Eisa al-Ghaith, if anyone's curious enough to try looking info on him on the Net or through news outlets proposal of even tighter control over the imams of the Holy Mosque in Mecca and the Prophet's Mosque in Medina that I mentioned before? Well, according to local newspaper Al-Watan (The Homeland), the Mecca Mosque's imam (Saud al-Shuraim) responded on Twitter with a blunt criticism of "everyone who sits in a plush seat, drinking tea and coffee, and hadn't become wisened on minbars, and then proposes a committee to scruntize the sermons and channels of the holy mosques' imams", accompanied with a 20-page electronic file including nine already-existing standards of regulation on the two imams in question, while also clarifying that they (the imams) are not infallible.

The Shura Council member in question's alleged response was, to put it simply, scoffing at what he saw as nothing but an unacceptable insult to the Shura Council (apparently he mistook the "armchair legislator" part as a generalization of the entire council) and a validation of his point. (Paraphrasing: "Had my proposed committe would've been in place, then al-Shuraim's tweet would never have been allowed to be published!")

edited 23rd Jan '14 2:16:36 PM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.