The General Economics Thread

Those South Sea Bubble vids rock. Thanks Euo and Chronosonic!

Sorry about the link not working for you (it still does for me, even after a cashe-clear... so, dunno what's up with that). Flaked out with the dizziness after that post, so didn't get a chance to correct. -_-

I did the South Sea Bubble as part of my A-Level... Which was focusing on the rise and fall of one Robert Walpole at the time. But, I learned a fair bit about how not to consolidate national debt alongside how slippery an eel Walpole was.

edited 19th May '15 8:09:41 AM by Euodiachloris

Walpole and Blunt, a match made in Wall Street.

Thanks Silas. So since the Chinese own a lot of US debt, what happens if their bubble collapses? Will that affect anything?

They can't "call the debt"; it has fixed maturity dates. If anything, a major collapse would make them even hungrier for dollars and increase their trade surplus.

A weaker Chinese currency would make the dollar stronger and our exports more expensive, damaging our economy to a small degree.

edited 19th May '15 9:00:36 AM by Fighteer

If something disrupts trade (including debt trade) between China and the US, such as a war, then the US would be heavily impacted, but would ultimately survive. China, on the other hand, would die. They need us far more than we need them.

China doesn't actually own as much US debt as one might think, it's big in terms of countries owning US debt but it's pretty small compared to how much US debt the US (either via the government or private individuals) owns. But yeah they'd probably buy more, as it's a safe investment and they'd need one in such a situation, they certainly can't call the debt in our anything.

Though with China who knows, the Chienase goverment has been playing games with the value of their currency for who knows how long, so it's hard to predict.

edited 19th May '15 9:22:54 AM by Silasw

@ Handle: More like Threadneedle Street — Robert Walpole was the British PM from 1721-42, and the first Prime Minister to live at 10 Downing Street.

edited 19th May '15 9:23:56 AM by Greenmantle

YMMV on that. Considering both China's historical precedent of dealing with catastrophes after a while and their recent efforts with the BRICS Bank and the AIIB, they will not die. They would get some severe damage for a couple of decades, but they would ultimately get things repaired and re-developed.

It's important to remember that China has been artificially holding the value of its currency down in international markets to preserve its trade surplus. It would benefit from its currency becoming weaker. The major struggle for it right now is to prevent the renminbi from appreciating, which would reduce its trade surplus and make it more vulnerable to an internal debt crisis.

To a large extent, China's economy is built around a constant inflow of dollars, euros, etc. It would have to undergo a period of painful restructuring if that flow were to cease or taper off.

edited 19th May '15 12:22:19 PM by Fighteer

Which may well happen. Relying on juggling fiscal markets to try papering over capital cracks? How very Blunt.

And not for the first time, either. There was a time when China would only accept silver for foreign payments.

Lest we cast aspersions, remember how long we clung to silver. Heck, the pound still has silver marks on its sides, if you look.

PM for 20 years. Holy moly. Didn't they have a press back then?

No Mass Media back then — mass-readership newspapers didn't start to arrive until the mid-late 19th century.

edited 19th May '15 2:38:37 PM by Greenmantle

Plus the House of Commons was almost a misnomer. Franchise was limited to somewhere in the single digit percentage of the population, so you had an easier time of keeping a smaller constituency satisfied.

Plus, he managed to make himself look like the populist savior in the eyes of the public by taking a stand against the South Sea Company (while secretly buying their stock).

Are we talking about Walpole?

Yes.

How many more such stories are there?

There must be hundreds, some of which are even true.

Oh, try a little Fox and Pitt for a few laughs...

With Walpole i finally think i know where Eiichiro Oda got the name of the greedy tyrant king Wapol.

Both Pitts.

Last post of this derail

Apparently the UK has issued another fine in the currency fixing scandal?

(Washington Center for Equitable Growth) New insights into U.S. public perceptions of income inequality: Those aware of how huge inequality is, research says, are more likely to support re-distributive policies such as the Estate Tax and the Minimum Wage.