Somalia: Progress?

Somali assembly endorses draft constitution

Al-Shabab are slowly getting pushed back and once a government is in place and asserts its authority piracy should become much rarer.

Is Somalia finally emerging from its decades of chaos?

Are the pirates really going to give up on their incredibly profitable trade now more legitimate options are available?

Can the emerging government stop other nations from continuing to take all their fish and use their waters as a dumping ground?

Where might Al-Shabab's fighters go as they lose control of the country?

Where will people sarcastically say Anarchists/Libertarians should go live in now?

I imagine it would still be a good example for a while.

besides that, maybe Antarctica? No much law enforcement there.

They should probably file a formal UN complaint about the abuse of their waters. I don't think it'll get them any traction until they get a national navy force up and running but it should help diplomatically. (If it actually works that would also be a great miracle for them)

They could try to convince the current pirates to join a formal navy, enter training, follow real laws and stop any more kidnapping. Then use the pirates turned navy (I mean, historically, a lot of pirates have been used for navy forces) to turn away illegal fishers and garbage ships.

They can try to invite al-Shahaab to peace talks. I think that at a certain point they'll accept and start talking. Disarmament and peace efforts in Afghanistan has had limited results and actually the primary problem there is that NATO is dealing with 100 different groups which the media erroneously calls "Taliban" when they aren't really united at all. In Somalia, the al-Shahaab are more united and I think peace talks can work better. We're not likely to bomb them away without a zillion international troops there for 30 years and nobody is going to do that.

edited 7th Aug '12 3:32:03 PM by breadloaf

Well, Somalia has problems with famine, civil war, piracy (which they commit), general lawlessness and lack of will by global powers to actually step in and fix the FUBAR situation.

The only thing that would make it worse would be plauge or a genocide class natural disaster.

So at this point, any step, no matter how small, towards getting back to normal should be considered progress.

@Natasel: Just a nitpick, it isn't just a lack of will on the part of foreign powers, but also adamant opposition by the Somalis themselves.

America tried to restore the peace. We were driven out in a hail of AK-47 gunfire.

I was quite chuffed to see two Somalis representing their country in the Olympic Games, one man, one woman. They didn't get very far but I really hope the number goes up by the next games.

Once Mighty, Somalia’s Army Struggles to Rebuild (the fact they _are_ rebuilding is nice though)

Diplomat to start Somalia's first stock market

Somalia's brave new World - on August 20th Somalia is officially going to have a permanent government again. But the article also gives an unflinching look at the endemic, pervasive corruption, such as tribal elders whose support and fighters could be bought by Al-Shabaab for just $500 a month.

edited 9th Aug '12 5:39:16 AM by betaalpha

I think a lot of people disagreed with the tactics USA used to try to restore peace in Somalia. Intention alone isn't sufficient to bring about progress. The plan itself has to actually be good.

Of course, Somalia is still in a state. For example, the European Union (and other nations) have armed navel fleets floating off the coast.

But, improvement is improvement. We just have to hope it lasts.

@ Ramidel

Do you seriously think even a NOT starving, NOT rag tag, army of Somalis with AK-47 could stop the USA?

The USA could kill everyone there by the end of the year. Without using nukes of bioweapons.

Somali resistance wasn't the reason, it was an excuse.

edited 10th Aug '12 11:01:03 PM by Natasel

The UN and US withdrew in 1995 because they failed to create a functioning government, capture Aidid or have much effect on the stability of the country (although they did have some successes, apparently saving the lives of around a hundred thousand Somalis).

So sadly, the multiple ragtag factions of AK-47 wielding Somalis did indeed stop the Americans, though that was because their mission wasn't to just kill everyone in the country but try to stabilize it. The guys with the guns said "No, we don't think you can help anymore, we don't trust the other guys, we're going to fight on." Well, the ones who were even speaking to the US in the first place.

edited 11th Aug '12 2:19:42 AM by betaalpha

But (for the sake of conversation) if the Somali resistance (and lack of progress) wasn't the reason the UN drawed out, then what was?

edited 11th Aug '12 11:26:24 AM by BestOf

Haba whaaaaa? Please explain.

True, you can technically stabilize a country and conquer it by killing everyone in it and so achieve all three objectives at the same time. But that's not usually how it's done.

It sounds like you're both basically saying the same thing - that lack of political will due to the Somali situation not stabilizing along with a rising body count that wasn't really achieving anything led to the US and UN withdrawing from Somalia. I'm not aware of the president blaming the Somalis for this though I've not looked into it really. The blame probably lies with all parties.

edited 11th Aug '12 11:26:10 AM by BestOf

Lack of will.

There is no oil in Somalia, and your own people's sons and daughters coming back in body bags on your orders and without a pay off does not look good for a leader, so blaming the Somalis for their problems is a relatively cheaper way of saying "no" than outright saying "no" and looking like an uncaring bastard.

edited 11th Aug '12 11:25:52 AM by BestOf

I cut out some derailing.

Look. No one has put the eradication of the Somali people on the table. Well, no one we need to listen to has. Let's not talk about killing or removing entire peoples, OK? (That's not really a question, BTW.)

The Other Farah - about the female Somali athlete at the Olympic Games.

She's been threatened by Al-Shabaab because she took part in the 'Western' competition and 'exposed herself' on the track (despite her hair and arms being covered). The other athlete was also threatened. They have asked for asylum in the UK.

Very sad that they were forced into such a situation by the intolerance of a group which is thankfully on the wane.

The AU have taken the port city of Kismayo. The plan is to control everything up to the Juba river.

There are several interesting points:

1) As a major port city, Kismayo is "the money".

2) Al-Shabab has a twitter account.

3) This is part of a "Jubaland project". Kenya wants a buffer zone but it couldn't get Ethiopia to agree because it was worried about Ogaden rebels (the Ogaden live about that area). Kenya held peace talks between Ethiopa and the Ogaden National Liberation Front and that has worked out. Somalia's president also had reservations -presumably because they don't want another Puntland- but they're in charge of this.

4) Like, would it be legal for me to just check out the twitter account? Should I just refrain from typing the words "Bomb" "Jihad" and "9/11" anytime soon?

5)Kismayo is not really part of "Jubaland" ethnically so my thoughts are that the success of this will depend on a Somalian government being able to keep the port city as a functioning part of the region, held together not by a tribal split but by function civil systems that mean they benefit from an actual economy.

I wonder how you get a job as Al-Shabaab's social media officer. #JihadDispatches

edited 29th Sep '12 9:08:34 AM by TheBatPencil

A question. How do you think the Somaliland issue should be dealt with? For those unaware here. Myself, i feel that if they want independence they should have it, especially sonce they've managed to avoid most of the problems of the rest of Somalia.

edited 29th Sep '12 11:31:02 AM by tricksterson

Without Kenya's support I don't see Somalia making it very far. I know Kenya's getting sick of their problems bleeding into their country.

Here is a news update on the status of the city of Kismayo, an important port city. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2MUry755Ro&feature=g-user-u

It brings up the key idea that a rabid dog backed in a corner is just a different kind of dangerous than a rabid dog roaming free.

I'm all for Somaliland's indepedence...if they controlled all of Somaliland. It's true they've managed to be stable and by all rights Hargeisa and the surrounding area has done better than Southern Somalia, but as long as they continue with their border dispute with Puntland, Maakhir, and Buhoodle, they won't be able secure those areas long enough to integrate them under Hargeisa's rule. As such, I doubt they can or should be recognized as independant yet. Maybe they can convince the other nations to back them in the dispute (Puntland is, after all, where all the pirates stay), recognize them, and then forge a new relationship. But I don't think much progress will happen until the main conflict down south is taken care of.

I have a distinct suspicion that if Somalia screws up Jubaland, Kenya will annex it.

Somewhat connected to Somali Pirates: The 'Somali pirates' who are not what they seem

Fake Pirates. "Pirated Pirates", as it were

So they're The Pirates Who Don't Do Anything?

edited 3rd Apr '13 8:31:45 AM by tricksterson

...Except Make Money!