Madness in Mali

Here's the situation: After the Libyan Civil war, Gaddafi's vast arsenal was spread all over North Africa. Since January, Tuaregs, some local and some remnants of Gaddafi's Army, have launched a secessionist rebellion in the north of the country, with some success (they've captured and held a few cities in the area). This is a continuation of a series of revolts that have gone on in the last fifty years since colonialism ended in the continent. The last one ended in 2008 after Colonel Gaddafi brokered a peace. With him dead, that peace went with it.

This was already reported in the Arab Spring thread, but now the chaos in that country has just spread: Soldiers, complaining of having not been given the resources necessary to put down this Tuareg rebellion, have now revolted. The government says its "merely" a mutiny, but people in Bamako, the Malian capital, believe its either a coup or the beginnings of a civil war.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/soldiers-angry-about-rebellion-cut-off-state-tv-radio-in-mali-fire-guns-into-air-in-capital/2012/03/21/gIQAZRO4RS_story.html

And a map of the Taureg rebellion in question:

[1]

All in all, it doesn't seem to be a good situation. The government of Mali has otherwise been stable for a bit over a decade, so it would be a shame if this was a coup. But there is also a fear that if the Tuaregs are successful, this will lead to similar rebellions in Niger and possibly even Algeria and Libya itself. Other than perhaps Algeria, none of these states really have the power to fight.

No matter what one thinks of Tuaregs or the governments whose territory they claim, it will lead to a great deal of instability in North Africa, possibly inviting trouble from elsewhere as well.

edited 21st Mar '12 8:18:40 PM by FFShinra

BBC: "Renegade Mali soldiers claim control."

The soldiers took control of the state TV station and after some hours of stock footage started broadcasting announcements about how the Constitution is suspended, the government is out, the army is in, power will be handed to democratic officials once they can hold elections, old government sucked, and there's a curfew.

Whether the whole army supports this is not known. Whether the rebels have significant parts of the capital in their grasp is unknown. Whether the people support this coup is not known.

Stay tuned.

Considering that the President was due to stand down in April, something doesn't sit right about what Captain Sanogo is telling us.

The insurgency was originally about Azawad separatism. More than 80% (IIRC) of the population of Mali live in the Southern half on the country. Azawad, which is the North of the country and mostly (if not entirely) in the Sahara. On the face of it, it seems as if that region is hardly worth anything, though of course there are many reasons that it's important for the rest of Mali that they keep united even if I don't know about it.

One argument against Azawad independence that I can come up with right now is that the separatist movements wants to unite the whole region or Azawad into a single, independent country, and their territorial claims cover many other countries than Mali - so if the Northern half of Mali were to become independent, considering that the separatists are apparently militaristic, they might want to use violence to get the rest of the area they claim. That'd be hell for stability and it would constitute yet another bloody war in this poor continent.

One word: Gold.

Yeah, it looks more like they're reading a typical DIY guide to coups rather than taking stock of the situation. If the president had any real support at all, this coup may not go as smoothly as they'd like...

My fear is that with the central government now fighting itself, that would just add fuel to the Tuareg fire. By launching a coup, the army is only gonna get more frustrated as rebels take advantage of the vacuum. Especially since, if wikipedia is to be trusted, the military all together doesn't number more than 15,000 troops.

edited 22nd Mar '12 10:40:36 AM by FFShinra

The "military" is militia fighters that choose not to make their own gang, or left one, and work for the National transitional council instead. While not overwhelmingly powerful, they are one of the most powerful factions.

National transitional council? Whatchu talkin bout Willis?

Yeah this is about Mali not Lybia.

Do the Tuareg Separatists want parts of Lybia?

Down the line they might, but for now they're focusing on northern Mali.

Speaking of, the chaos of the coup has, not surprisingly, given a window of opportunity to the rebels. The Army has retreated to Gao (see map) as they solidify their power, and so rebels are making a very large advance southward and taking control of the abandoned encampments and small villages.

It will be only a matter of time before they begin to threaten one of the three regional capitals (Timbuktu, Gao, and Kidal).

EDIT - Speaking of Kidal, it seems Taureg rebels have now cut off the town from the south. They haven't taken Kidal itself, but it seems rather eminent.

edited 22nd Mar '12 7:16:28 PM by FFShinra

If they do succede in seceding, and subsequently threaten Libya, I don't see how Lybia could resist.

It's Libya, you got it right at least once already.

I can understand the reasoning the junta had by suspending the constitution (its a necessary step in any coup unless there is legislation that allows for emergency powers), but WHY would they dissolve all institutions?!

Nevermind that launching a coup in the middle of a war because the putchists want it to go better makes no damned sense, but when you have an army of just 7,000 men (and if you add in paramilitaries and gendarmerie, it goes only to about 15,000), that isn't enough to replace the civil service wholesale.

This is first truely amateurish coup I've seen occuring within my own lifetime. Oy.

EDIT-

In the last hour, State Television went offline and back online. Might have been an attempt at a countercoup. Reports are also coming in that the radio is down.

Things are getting interesting.

EDIT 2-

[1] This article probably gives the most comprehensive account of why all this is happening.

edited 23rd Mar '12 1:16:50 PM by FFShinra

I should have read more than the first half of the OP. DOH!

I hadn't even heard about this coup in the news so I didn't realize what you meant. Sorry. (for the record, I blame the media for concentrating on stupid stuff)

Time Magazine is reporting the Tuareg are about to overrun Kidal. The Malian Army has retreated to Gao, so that still leaves Timbuktu open for the taking.

Meanwhile, in Bamako, its becoming increasingly clear the putschists don't really understand what they are doing. No one is following their orders, the soldiers are looting (particularly fuel), and the international community as a whole has condemned the coup and will not support the amateurs. There are rumors of a countercoup underway.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17498739

I do wonder how much of the of the military is actually on his side.

And holding another nation's foreign ministers like that is a clear breach of diplomatic immunity.

Well. There have been Lieutenants as coup leaders, I think, but still... a Captain as coup leader. That's pathetic all in itself.

This is indeed just madness. Messy, idiotic, anarchic.

How do these low-ranking types even organise these things? I can't see how the likes of Lieutenents, Captains and Colonels can get that much influence and organisation without being found out somewhere along the line.

Eh. Colonels make sense. After all, African military forces are mostly very small, so Colonels will be among the most high ranking people, actually. Plus, generals are often political(ly influenced) appointments. But Captains and lower is just insane... why are people even following them, including what must be higher ranks than that?

You can understand high-ranking officers or politicians, seeing as they're the kind of people who can get allies and the political backing for this kind of thing and access to the means of organising it. But this guy?

Maybe he's just the figurehead and the real organisers are behind the scenes? Like, maybe they put an average army grunt in the big chair to say to the army "hey, look, we're one of you!" I can't see how else a country can suddenly end up in a position where a random Captain can walk into the Presidential Palace and declare himself king of the jungle just like that.

If he won over the rank and file with a promise of ending the rebellion they are fighting and increasing their pay than I could see him taking over through sheer numbers; though I doubt he can consolidate his position. Anyone above him can just be placed under house arrest. This was probably a rush job, started out as a soldier's riot and then got exploited. Hence the whole anarchy of the entire thing.

Do any foreign countries has any motivation to have backed this guy?

edited 24th Mar '12 8:24:16 PM by Rationalinsanity

As far as I know (which probably isn't worth much but whatever) everyone in the area wants to keep Mali together. Tuareg people also live in large numbers in areas of Algeria, Burkina Faso, Niger and Libya and I doubt that any of them want to encourage Tuareg nationalism coming out of Azawad.

There may or may not be GSPC involvement in the rebellion, too. They've been active in Mali since the beginning of 2011.

edited 24th Mar '12 8:54:35 PM by TheBatPencil

GSPC? I heard of AQIM and the MNLA, but GSPC? What is it?

As for how a Captain could actually launch such an insurrection, it seems from all reports its really just the military base in Gao and the barracks at Kita that consists of this. Any and all other military facilities are in question as to who controls them, and at least one of those bases is still loyal to the president. My guess he was influential enough to get the boys in Kita on his side (or already formally commanded them) and simply called the rank and file in Gao who had already mutinied that he'd handle everything. Of course, that's only good enough to get through stage one, as the dear Captain is learning the hard way....

Also, all the major political parties over there have condemned the coup (sensible enough since they just got robbed of the ability to have an election in a month's time...). The leaders have all gone into hiding after one of them was arrested though. It seems there are proposals for non-cooperation with Sanogo's men. [1]

Twitter feed on Mali BTW, if anyone is interested: https://twitter.com/#!/search/realtime/%23Mali

edited 24th Mar '12 10:48:22 PM by FFShinra

The GSPC is (in English) the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, an insurgency that's been operating in the Maghreb out of Algeria since 2002. Al-Qaeda affiliated. They've been operating in Mali since January 2011.

edited 25th Mar '12 3:22:40 AM by TheBatPencil

Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat-Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat = AQIM[1]

Oh.

I knew that.