Kim Jong Nam Predicts the fall of North Korea "soon"

People outside of North Korea or people inside North Korea?

Outside, not much. A little less fear now that North Korea seems unable to make rockets that won't explode on them, but its only a matter of time....

Inside? The most convinient move would be to blame Cowardly Western Sabotage! But fear not citizens! Your Glorious Leader promises to push on and continue to develop rockets while you starve most patriotically!

Well, Nam is a possible plaster should things suddenly go wonky (say, the aforementioned Earthquake of Doom) and the regime face a topple it can't avoid.

If you can give the military (and the rather brain-washed culture) at least something semi-familiar to cling on to, reforms and a degree of outside intervention can start with various factions maintaining a certain degree of face. All this without foisting a full-on, catastrophic, automatic reunification with the South on both countries.

Should, after some decades of development, reunification still be on the cards, then sure.

Why else does China keep him nice and safe?

edited 19th Apr '12 5:25:37 AM by Euodiachloris

Nam doesn't sound like a guy who wants to lead a country though.

Nam doesn't have to want to do anything.

I'm very sure there will be handlers who will happily persuade him to endorse their rule.

Oh his behalf of course.

Inside, because by what I read from the paper this is the first time the people in North Korea were told the truth of what happaned to their rocket.

Laws are made to be broken. You're next, thermodynamics.

Not sure how people will care that much about their rocket failing, depends how they worded it. It could just be like "we are in a struggle today and we must work harder!"

But does anybody have a transcript of Un's first public speech? He said something about a "military first policy" but considering that everybody in NK is considered a soldier, that basically is totally meaningless.

He doesn't need to lead the country; he would just be the figurehead while China/The UN/South Korea/America/some god given miracle tries to rebuild the hell his family created.

Not that I'm suggesting he's personally or morally responsible for the actions of his relatives.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.

It can't fall soon enough.

Smile for me!

well. It can. Millions of refugees in every direction, and a field trip for the weapons black market.

Suitcases with enrich plutonium, missile technology, social clashes in China... Civil war in the DPRK....

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.

NK is 1984 so well emulated IRL that even a civil war might nearly be an improvement...

Unbent, Unbowed, Unbroken. Unrelated ME1 Fanfic

It probably would be. It'd be bad in the short term, but it really can't get worse in the long term.

Improvement is almost guaranteed. Particularly if we could persuade Seoul to just annex them.

Except for 4/1/2011. That day lingers in my memory like...metaphor here...I should go.

Well, I think it would go from 1984 to 2012 (Somalia).

Best case scenerio, the old gurd dies and then they follow a Chinese model of reform.

edited 21st Apr '12 7:11:45 PM by Baff

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.

I think the problem with hoping for a Chinese-style reform is that there's nobody to do it. The Chinese leadership had an internal battle in the late 80s, with hardliners fighting with the market socialists sometimes literally to the death. With NK, I don't really see that kind of "softer" group there.

What I see are military elite and the Kim family who is increasingly less able to lead the country. I mean, does this latest guy actually have any clue wtf he is doing? It would surprise me if he were anywhere fit to lead a country. So if it falls, it's probably a giant refugee problem.

South Korea and China would take most of the hit, and they'd probably be really grumpy about it. The rest of the world can say whatever it wants about NK, they don't have missiles that can reach anywhere we care about, so if it collapses and all hell breaks loose, it's not really our problem.

Pretty sure we care about those countries. If nothing else, China's got one of the most thriving economies today, so a missile ending up there could potentially screw things over for the world.

Insert witty and clever quip here. My page, as the database hates my handle.

If NK attacked China... it would be just over for NK. I mean they would lose their only ally and well the US would actually jump to China's defense, I think even SK might do the same. NK would just not exist anymore and most likely would be split between China and South Korea or just become Korea again with some big treaties between them, china and the US.

edited 22nd Apr '12 1:40:26 AM by Raso

Sparkling and glittering! Jan-Ken-Pon!

I wouldn't wish that economic burden on South Korea even if they were my worst enemies...

I think reunification of any sort just isn't viable. And, after the decades of being spoon-fed the idea that their neighbours are evil and degenerate...? I don't think it would work socially at all well. At least, not for a while after some freedom from the propaganda machine.

How to sort it out? God alone knows: but, whether he wills it or not, Nam (or any of his children) could play an important part, should it be needed.

The Kim Jong family: be glad you weren't born into it.

What people dont know is that there have been shy steeps at liberalization already in the DPRK.

[1]

I will always cherish the chance of a new beggining.

That's interesting really.

And by hit for China/SK, I meant refugee hit in the event of a war. Nor do I think it is "too late" for reunification. Is it ever too late to bring a family back together? I don't think so.

We might also have amnesty efforts to other countries like the US.

Now using Trivialis handle.

I'm not ruling out longer-term reunification. But, immediate reunification under current conditions would be too much of a strain for both countries on several levels. Having both probably collapse to try to save one too soon that way? Doesn't make much sense.

Any type of Korean reunification would probably take at least a generation before the new Korean society is anything cohesive socially or economically, in my opinion.

https://soundcloud.com/rich-justice-hinmen Too white for the black kids, too white for the white kids.