Kim Jong Nam Predicts the fall of North Korea "soon"

There are sane members of this family?

News to me...

Nam went to an international school.

This prediction of the fall of North Korea sounds similar to the predicitions of Castro and Cuba.

Castro outlasted several US presidents and is stepping down due to old age.

North Korea on the other hand, has a succession system in place and can replace one Glorious Leader after another for generations to come, and has done so before.

If this is wishful thinking, it will be a very long time before this wish becomes true.

Well, dynasties tended to last fairly long back in the day. In the modern time stuff moves along seemingly faster, or maybe it's just that we know recent history better.

Technically this current kid could turn things around for the better before his son screws it up.

Isn't Cuba generally able to keep its population fed without lots of foreign aid, though?

I'm pretty sure that KJI and KJU did, too.

Cuba and North Korea do accept foreign aid (begrudgingly/unofficially). As to feeding, Cuba is not that bad off really.

Cuba is blessed by good weather, being a potential tropical paradise/vacation resort before Castro came to power and used Communist rule.

North Korea on the other hand, does not have a tropical clime and has a winter season comparable to that of Russia.

Add to the fact that Cubans have an arguably easier route when choosing to defect to the USA via Florida, unlike Korea with its famous DMZ to the south and a largely unsympathetic, due to political concerns, China to the North and the sea route is patrolled by paranoid navy (their own and others).

edited 28th Jan '12 12:25:37 PM by Natasel

It is a resort country now,. It's great because there aren't any Americans!

Pls ignore post.

edited 29th Jan '12 11:07:19 PM by Natasel

Well China might be to the North, but that is where all the refugees do flee into, especially Christians because they seek freedom of religion.

As for North Korea falling, the problem I think is two fold

a) The senior leadership would need someone who wants to fold the cards for the better of the people rather than the established communist party. It's hardly one guy profiting from the situation. It's probably upwards to a million North Koreans who profit from the situation, if not more (ie. anybody directly in the core military). I say core military because North Korea counts everybody as military, including grandmas that once touched a gun.

b) If the country does nothing, there's basically no catalyst for change. Tom for instance might say things like "South Korea can only take so much!" and so on, but honestly a few deaths every few years is pretty small versus the potential thousands or tens of thousands that could die on the first few days of an open Korean War. It's easy for an American, or Canadian to say "Hey I'm willing to pay the price!", but it's Korean lives you're throwing away, not American ones.

I'd say that, if nothing else, the Kim dynasty will probably fall if North Korea gets hit with a major earthquake or tsunami or something like that. If they let necessary foreign aid in, they'll have to end the national isolation they've been using to keep the public in check. And if they try handling the problem on their own . . . well, given how poor conditions are in North Korea already, a major disaster could easily push the public to their breaking point.

I like that prediction. Very interesting. There does need to be, I think, a "breaking point". The question is, what? Remember the videos of the people crying at the death of their leader? If they really did revere him THAT much, then they have no idea what's going on at all. It would take something huge to get people to realize something is very wrong, and moreso that they should revolt.

Then again, they started going trough tapes to see those who "didn't mourn hard enough" and you could give in neighbors who didn't "mourn hard enough" for prize, so...

You saw mourning masses, but you didn't see the snipers aiming at them, like one yourube commentor said.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2085636/North-Koreans-face-labour-camps-upset-death-Kim-Jong-il.html

edited 30th Jan '12 1:58:51 PM by Mandemo

Well I can see being sentenced for criticising the new leader or not showing up to an organised mourning event. That's pretty typical. Though I'm not sure about snipers and "not mourning hard enough". I need proof for that level of evil going on.

I will only say that if that was the case, as a hypothetical North Korean I could certainly find plenty to cry about.

Can't really give 100% sure proof, since NK is slightly... closed from outsiders, so all info relies on informants, like said in the article. However, this is what source said:

Of course according to NK nothing like this happens, everything is sunshine and rainbows and everyone is living like a Disney film.

This piece is really only a mild exaggeration of what he know goes on.

I don't think China would really support North Korea if The Korean War turned hot again, even if the US got involved, who is more valuable to China? North Korea with how things are run there? Or the USA.

I think China also got angry when North Korea started nuclear tests. China is a Security Council member after all.

China really doesn't want North Korea. Unfortunately, what they want even less is to be surrounded with US allies (Japan, South Korea, etc.) so it's obliged to support North Korea to preserve a feeling of control over the area.

Potential Comedy Scenario.

China gets fed up and invades. North Korea calls on the Great Satan for help!

Hilarity insues.

edited 30th Jan '12 9:29:36 PM by Natasel

That's bad. If China is willing to invade a country on its own, what about the other nearby countries?

Any near countries that are near as big a pain in the ass as NK?

edited 30th Jan '12 9:30:37 PM by Natasel

You mean to China?

Taiwan and South Korea are nearby, so if China demonstrates that it's willing to actually commence an invasion, those two countries aren't very safe.

You forgot Japan. (point out though that Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc. have fairly good trade relations with China. NK, not so much. NK's nutty leaders don't help matters either....)

Anyway, back to North Korea, don't really see it falling any time soon. Its almost seems like a perfect little dystopian kingdom trapped in a time bubble.

If not China, the USA might wanna give invasion a try.

Seriously, its been 3 generations of Glorious Leader already and things haven't really changed for the better in all that time.

edited 30th Jan '12 9:42:07 PM by Natasel