News from both sides of the Durrand Line

inorite?

Well, this other land route sounds promising, I suppose.

Not really. The Northern Distribution Network costs the US a hell of a lot more than the Pakistani route. Or rather it did. What Pakistan just did basically was that now EVERY path costs a ridiculous amount of money.

And "most" of it does NOT go through Uzbekistan. 30% of goods is trucked over Pakistan, but 20% is flown over Pakistani airspace. Of the remainder, most goes through Uzbek/Russian airspace and rail with a small bit going through Turkmenistan on to the Caspian and Black Sea.

The sad thing is, we're pissing off the Russians again over that recent election, which will force us to depend ENTIRELY on the Turkmenistan route (which, BTW, is also the most complicated and most expensive) should the Russians recind their approval of us using their land and airspace...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/report-pentagon-investigation-finds-us-mistakes-led-to-pakistan-airstrikes/2011/12/22/gIQAdES3AP_story.html

Report came in. Human error on the part of NATO/ISAF.

So much for the accusations against Pakistan. Or Obama's refusal to apologize.

Conspirators are plotting to bring down Pakistan's civilian government, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has said.

That is not gonna end well. The Army came out today and basically stated outright that it wants Zardari gone (though they're quick to say they won't launch a coup to do it), probably in response to the Gilani remarks.

Everything hangs on Nawaz Sharif now.

Even then, the Army rejected that report since the investigation also said Pakistan shot first.

edited 22nd Dec '11 11:01:48 PM by FFShinra

http://tribune.com.pk/story/314202/pakistan-rangers-seize-us-military-equipment/

So this is a thing.

Also, as an update on previous stories posted here, the Supreme Court will now investigate the memo. Three possibilities. The most typical result is that such investigations disappear into the ether and it disappears as a political issue. The second possibility is that the memo finds the military culpable, which would then most certainly mean the resignation of General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, the current Director General of the ISI and possibly the Army Chief himself. This possibility is seen as the least likely for obvious reasons, but also the most damaging if it were to happen. The final possible result is that Zardari is found guilty and thus he is political emasculated (he can't be arrested while he remains president and he has the numbers on his side in Parliament so there is not a realistic possibility of impeachment. Any attempt to oust the government would also not work too well since Imran Khan is pulling a Ron Paul and splitting up the conservative vote, thus keeping the relatively liberal PPP in power. In short, Zardari (to his credit) has forced the military to a political stalemate.

I'm sure China will be interested in taking a look round that shipment.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4049726/Rockets-to-flatten-Osama-Bin-Laden-Pakistan-hideout.html

Been confirmed in several news pieces: The Pakistan Army is gonna rocket OBL's hideout to rubble. It's happening next month, and the authorities are apparently going to make a big show of it, tv cameras and all.

So it's not going to be the setting of Pakistan Big Brother? Awwww

EDIT: I really need to read more closely. Not going to be a setting for Pakistani Big Brother... got it.

edited 10th Jan '12 10:50:39 AM by GameChainsaw

Hah. Sad enough it looks alot like the Bigg Boss house (India's equivalent to Big Brother), so that would not have been entirely out of the realm of possibility.

In other news, the Pakistani Supreme Court has basically threatened the sitting government of willful noncompliance if they don't let the Swiss prosecute the corruption cases against President Zardari.

This is sort of a bump, sort of a heads up. The situation between the government and the army is seriously deteriorating. Lots of word that a coup is imminent (the 111 Brigade of the X Corps, based in the capital and the lynchpin of every coup thus far in Pakistan's history, has just got a new guy put in charge, in retaliation for the Defense Secretary (not the same as Defense Minister but more powerful than him at the moment since the dude was ex-Army) being fired) and various other actions (such as the president going to Dubai for a wedding, Kayani in Beijing, and various statements by the military's public relations department are all pointing to it. The US hasn't asked the Army to show restraint nor has it been given that assurance and seems to generally be staying as far away from this as possible.

I'll have more as the situation develops or if the coup occurs.

I wonder if that has anything to do with the rumours that Musharraf is returning to Pakistan for political reasons.

I've been wondering about that too. Last year he said he was returning in late March. Now he is returning in late January. He knows something.

Normally I'd go so far as to say he'd be installed as the Army-loyalist PM or President, if not for Imran Khan, an ex-cricket superstar who is kind of the Ron Paul of Pakistan. His party has recently been pumped full of new recruits among the political class, including those who served in the military government. Thus I'd think he's being set up as the Army's new potential puppet.

All very strange, very interesting, and very fluid.

News -

Hakimullah Mehsud, leader of the Pakistani Taliban, has been reported killed via drone strike.

General Musharraf, who is trying to run for office again, has said he would back the army if there was ever a coup.

The Government, under pressure from the Supreme Court, the Army, and the Opposition, is likely to call for early elections, when is unknown at this point. If talks to that end fail (the government wants do hold out until the Senate elections in march, where the ruling party is expected to sweep, the importance of winning being their veto power over the lower house's legislation), the government will be in immediate trouble again.

Good to hear that monster is dead.

The Taliban have a massive rap sheet in regards to War Crimes, Wikipedia is pretty good to look at in regards to this.

1 down, ~15,000(+?) to go.

The Taliban are already in trouble from what I hear regarding leadership; Al Queda, at least, has practically dissolved; they've no strategic vision left. Keep picking off the leadership; this might end in a broken enemy after all...

Makes it real maddening when your University's MSA President defends the Taliban, and says "I need to know where they came from." Fortunately, it the last semester for both of us here, so he goes back to Saudi at the end of this semester.

Good riddance.

The Taliban are monsters in Human Form. No need for understanding and tolerance. For they give none, and kill on a whim.

Any way, any more news about the Civilian, Military friction in Pakistan?

The Taliban were fine (as essentially a neighborhood watch against warlordism) before Pakistan pumped them full of money and ideology for their own purposes.

Anyway, yeah there is more news:

Today, the Supreme Court of Pakistan started contempt proceedings against the PM. Unlike the president, who technically has immunity, the PM would immediately be disqualified to serve in parliament and also be put in jail for six months. The PM, for his part, has offered to resign if necessary though I don't think that would help combat a contempt hearing...

Mansoor Ijaz, the Pakistani-American businessman at the heart of the memogate scandal has not yet shown up in court, so that showdown is unlikely to get resolved/get to the next stage until he does.

Lots of bombings lately. More in the last two weeks than there were in the last three months. Some are attacks against Shia processions, but there are also a growing number of Baloch seperatist attacks on the military...

If I'm not mistaken, the Taliban has been used against the Balochs by the government.

The Balochs have legitimately suffered enough. They deserve independence. And unlike the Kashmir issue, we can tell they aren't being supported by a foreign state. (The Kashmir fighters are more well-armed and better trained then those terrorists Pakistan supports in Kashmir).

I was hoping for feedback on the MSA thing. That drives me up a wall.

Make a seperate topic for that then.

Oh and no reaction of any kind about the recent drone strike that purportedly killed Hakimullah Mehsud. Which of course means they appreciated it and may have actually asked the US for it, though there is no way they would confirm such a story.

And if Gilani resigns, Amin Fahim is being groomed to take his place. Last I read of him was in wikileaks as basically being full of shit, but whatever....

EDIT-

There are also reports about the US and Afghanistan trying to establish channels with Mullah Omar (the Taliban leader) to begin talks for peace but not being able to do so reliably because he's essentially under house arrest somewhere in Pakistan. Indeed, no one can even trust the statements he brings out because at least some of them are thought to be authored by the ISI rather than him.

edited 16th Jan '12 5:32:12 PM by FFShinra

I've suspected that sort of duplicity for a long time. Since Bin Laden's death.

http://www.dawn.com/2012/02/02/sc-resumes-contempt-hearing-against-pm.html

Aaand Gilani's screwed. He still has a chance to appeal, but if he loses it, the government is out and he's in jail for six months for contempt. Its now a matter of when. If its before March, the ruling party is screwed but if its after, they might be able to salvage some power because they'll control the Senate by then.

The Memogate thing has died out. Mansoor Ijaz chickened out of testifying and since he WAS the case, the case has just about fallen apart. Husain Haqqani, their former ambassador to the US who was getting screwed over this, is now a free man again and has entered the US to be with his family who had remained in the States, even though there is another ambassador now.

Musharraf chickened out of coming back too. Was warned off by the ISI since the civvies really want to arrest and prosecute the former dictator.

HUGE increase in attacks from both Taliban-infested FATA but also seperatist-embroiled Balochistan, which makes up 40% of Pakistan's territory.

Gilani lost the appeal. He basically only has two choices now: he can either betray Zardari and be toast within the ruling PPP or he can get hit with contempt and be forced to resign as PM.

The government will be very weakened by this, but it is still technically okay since Zardari can appoint another PM (he's also party co-chairman of the PPP). They will try to stall until the senate elections next month. However, the court is showing no quarter and may disqualify the government before that (as it has already done with some 30 legislators).