Ongoing European Debt Crisis

On whose part?

Prove it to me.

Yeah. Germany wouldn't have weathered the crisis half as well as it did if it weren't for how much exports to China and the other rising economical powers in Asia grow. Really, Merkel should have a harder line. Handling of the crisis strictly according to the original treaties: No financial aid.

List of countries by GDP. Germany is #4, with about $3.629 trillion as its GDP.

List of countries by exports. Germany is #2, with $1.543 trillion as the total value of all exports (obviously, this is an estimate.)

These figures point to exports being almost a third of Germany's GDP.

According to Wikipedia's article on the economy of Germany, exports are more than a third of the exports, but I don't know what year's figures they were using.

edited 5th Apr '12 2:17:12 PM by BestOf

Nobody is denying that. And yes, the percentage of exports to other EU countries is large. But it's decreasing, that's the point. Besides, while German exports were growing in recent years, so were imports. And those also largely come from EU countries. After all, the important issue is not so much the absolute amount of exports but the trade surplus.

Well let's see, Germany is the world's second largest exporter, they export about 80% of the value as a country with over a billion people, they certainly ain't niche is what I'm thinking so it's actually just simpler and straightforward to believe that the exports go roughly in proportion to different economies in accordance to their size. US economy about the size of the EU economy so I expect roughly equal numbers. The size of the export economy proves nothing except the conditions to make my simplification more likely.

Eurozone crisis: Why it may not be over yet

So yeah, there are 2 important events happening this year that might make the Eurozone crisis worse:

The Greek and French elections.

If a party that has threatened to withdraw from the austerity plans gets elected in Greece then this will unnerve investors

If Hollande gets elected then investors may question why the government who spends the most % GDP wise deserves interest rates of >3%

It definitely is not over, and the recent events in Spain have demonstrated how even a responsible economy is at risk from the Euro insanity. Pre-crisis, Spain's economic data was more solid than even Germany's. Except for the balance of payments problem.

Dutch ruling coalition on the brink of collapse after Geert Wilders walks out of the budget cutting negotiations

Oops. That's not good. Seriously not good. Talk about a instability from an angle few international analysis were expecting...

So new elections in NL are a fact now. Eh, I wouldn't exactly call simply calling new elections "unstable", though.

This coalition has only lasted 2 years but no-one is going to work with the PVV which happen to be the 3rd largest party and the King maker between the libertarian VVD and the social democratic Pvd A

Just recently re-elections were called after just two years here in North Rhine-Westphalia, too. As long as this doesn't happen every time it's not actually a sign of systematic instability. And I wouldn't work with the PVV, either...

I didn't say it was systemic instability: just instability. At the moment, even a small rock from a boat makes waves in some places.

That was all I was suggesting. Hmmm... should've picked better words. Sorry.

Fucking Geert Wilders. Every Dutch acquaintance I've met could tell right away that nutjob was bad news.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will submit his government's resignation to Queen Beatrix today, reports say, paving the way for early elections.

2011 and 2012 aren't turning out to be great years for European Leaders

Leaders?

As You Know, here it's Politicians in General — they're useless!

edited 23rd Apr '12 6:22:39 AM by Greenmantle

Incumbent Prime Minsters/Presidents then

I'd agree with you there...

It's been said repeatedly by Krugman and others that, as long as the fundamental issues driving the European crisis are not resolved, even the heroic efforts of the ECB (which were against Merkozy's wishes, mind you) could only stem the tide, not stop it. The core problems remain and will continue to drive the EU into crisis after crisis, while their collective economies tank due to paralyzing austerity.

The fact that Sarkozy looks like he's about to get his ass kicked in the French elections is promising; his successor seems prepared to adopt Keynesian measures.

...and withdraw from the whole European Debt Treaty as well.

edited 23rd Apr '12 6:45:03 AM by Greenmantle

I think people looking for Sarkozy's downfall may be getting a little over-excited; Marine Le Penne will have split the right vote. With her out the running, Sarkozy's probably going to get an avalanche of returning supporters. Unless Hollande' has a similar source of reinforcements coming he's probably going to get his ass handed to him in the run-off, by my calculations. With all that implies for Frances fiscal policy.

EDIT: I'm duplicating this point over in the French Presidential Election thread so if people want to discuss it in depth we should probably do so there.

edited 23rd Apr '12 6:53:51 AM by GameChainsaw

The ruling governments of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece, Finland, Slovakia,Italy and now the Netherlands have fallen in the last 2 years with France set to fall

Up next is the German elections next year IIRC.

Including regular terms end in "have fallen" is disingenuous, as is describing reelections in the Netherlands as "Netherlands collapsing [/E: Wait, somebody said so... but apparently not in this thread. Huh] People are getting somewhat sensationalist.

edited 23rd Apr '12 2:02:06 PM by Octo

Its not disingenuous, there is a massive anti incumbent backlash against forced austerity. But the Coalition in the Netherlands has fallen apart because Wilders refused to enforce the stupid 3% deficit rule.