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Ongoing European Debt Crisis
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Ongoing European Debt Crisis:

 1201 johnnyfog, Thu, 5th Apr '12 2:00:03 PM from NYC Relationship Status: They can't hide forever. We've got satellites.
Not entirely a douche
On whose part?
PHD in Thuganomics
 1202 Some Sort Of Troper, Thu, 5th Apr '12 2:03:54 PM Relationship Status: Complex: I'm real, she is imaginary
Germany's economic strength depends significantly on exports to other EU nations.

Prove it to me.
Don't just tell us the facts; tell us the memes, tell us the archetypes, tell us the catchy ideas and symbolic roles that get planted in pe
 1203 Octo, Thu, 5th Apr '12 2:10:41 PM from Germany
Prince of Dorne
Yeah. Germany wouldn't have weathered the crisis half as well as it did if it weren't for how much exports to China and the other rising economical powers in Asia grow. Really, Merkel should have a harder line. Handling of the crisis strictly according to the original treaties: No financial aid.
Unbent, Unbowed, Unbroken.

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 1204 Best Of, Thu, 5th Apr '12 2:16:20 PM from Finland Relationship Status: Falling within your bell curve
FABRICATI DIEM, PVNC!
List of countries by GDP. Germany is #4, with about $3.629 trillion as its GDP.

List of countries by exports. Germany is #2, with $1.543 trillion as the total value of all exports (obviously, this is an estimate.)

These figures point to exports being almost a third of Germany's GDP.

According to Wikipedia's article on the economy of Germany, exports are more than a third of the exports, but I don't know what year's figures they were using.

edited 5th Apr '12 2:17:12 PM by BestOf

I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day. - Douglas Adams
 1205 Octo, Thu, 5th Apr '12 2:18:48 PM from Germany
Prince of Dorne
Nobody is denying that. And yes, the percentage of exports to other EU countries is large. But it's decreasing, that's the point. Besides, while German exports were growing in recent years, so were imports. And those also largely come from EU countries. After all, the important issue is not so much the absolute amount of exports but the trade surplus.
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 1206 Some Sort Of Troper, Fri, 6th Apr '12 1:57:41 AM Relationship Status: Complex: I'm real, she is imaginary
Well let's see, Germany is the world's second largest exporter, they export about 80% of the value as a country with over a billion people, they certainly ain't niche is what I'm thinking so it's actually just simpler and straightforward to believe that the exports go roughly in proportion to different economies in accordance to their size. US economy about the size of the EU economy so I expect roughly equal numbers. The size of the export economy proves nothing except the conditions to make my simplification more likely.
Don't just tell us the facts; tell us the memes, tell us the archetypes, tell us the catchy ideas and symbolic roles that get planted in pe
Decemberist
Eurozone crisis: Why it may not be over yet

So yeah, there are 2 important events happening this year that might make the Eurozone crisis worse:

The Greek and French elections.

If a party that has threatened to withdraw from the austerity plans gets elected in Greece then this will unnerve investors

If Hollande gets elected then investors may question why the government who spends the most % GDP wise deserves interest rates of >3%
Dutch Lesbian
 1208 Fighteer, Sun, 15th Apr '12 5:43:27 PM from the Time Vortex Relationship Status: Dancing with Captain Jack Harkness
It definitely is not over, and the recent events in Spain have demonstrated how even a responsible economy is at risk from the Euro insanity. Pre-crisis, Spain's economic data was more solid than even Germany's. Except for the balance of payments problem.
Neoclassicism, AKA the Tinkerbell school of economics.
Euo will do!
Oops. That's not good. Seriously not good. Talk about a instability from an angle few international analysis were expecting...
"When all else failed, she tried being reasonable." ~ Pratchett, Johnny and the Bomb
 1211 Octo, Sat, 21st Apr '12 9:36:48 AM from Germany
Prince of Dorne
So new elections in NL are a fact now. Eh, I wouldn't exactly call simply calling new elections "unstable", though.
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Decemberist
So new elections in NL are a fact now. Eh, I wouldn't exactly call simply calling new elections "unstable", though.

This coalition has only lasted 2 years but no-one is going to work with the PVV which happen to be the 3rd largest party and the King maker between the libertarian VVD and the social democratic Pvd A
Dutch Lesbian
 1213 Octo, Sat, 21st Apr '12 9:50:22 AM from Germany
Prince of Dorne
Just recently re-elections were called after just two years here in North Rhine-Westphalia, too. As long as this doesn't happen every time it's not actually a sign of systematic instability. And I wouldn't work with the PVV, either...
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Euo will do!
I didn't say it was systemic instability: just instability. At the moment, even a small rock from a boat makes waves in some places. tongue

That was all I was suggesting. Hmmm... should've picked better words. Sorry.
"When all else failed, she tried being reasonable." ~ Pratchett, Johnny and the Bomb
 1215 Radical Taoist, Sun, 22nd Apr '12 7:08:08 AM from the #GUniverse
scratching at .8, just hopin'
Fucking Geert Wilders. Every Dutch acquaintance I've met could tell right away that nutjob was bad news.
Decemberist
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will submit his government's resignation to Queen Beatrix today, reports say, paving the way for early elections.

2011 and 2012 aren't turning out to be great years for European Leaders
Dutch Lesbian
 1217 Greenmantle, Mon, 23rd Apr '12 6:22:16 AM from Thornycroft-land Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
Dodge-ing The Water
[up]

2011 and 2012 aren't turning out to be great years for European Leaders

Leaders?

As You Know, here it's Politicians in General — they're useless!

edited 23rd Apr '12 6:22:39 AM by Greenmantle

"To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield" — Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Decemberist
Incumbent Prime Minsters/Presidents then tongue
Dutch Lesbian
 1219 Greenmantle, Mon, 23rd Apr '12 6:35:37 AM from Thornycroft-land Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
Dodge-ing The Water
I'd agree with you there...
"To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield" — Alfred, Lord Tennyson
 1220 Fighteer, Mon, 23rd Apr '12 6:40:42 AM from the Time Vortex Relationship Status: Dancing with Captain Jack Harkness
It's been said repeatedly by Krugman and others that, as long as the fundamental issues driving the European crisis are not resolved, even the heroic efforts of the ECB (which were against Merkozy's wishes, mind you) could only stem the tide, not stop it. The core problems remain and will continue to drive the EU into crisis after crisis, while their collective economies tank due to paralyzing austerity.

The fact that Sarkozy looks like he's about to get his ass kicked in the French elections is promising; his successor seems prepared to adopt Keynesian measures.
Neoclassicism, AKA the Tinkerbell school of economics.
 1221 Greenmantle, Mon, 23rd Apr '12 6:44:34 AM from Thornycroft-land Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
Dodge-ing The Water
The fact that Sarkozy looks like he's about to get his ass kicked in the French elections is promising; his successor seems prepared to adopt Keynesian measures.

...and withdraw from the whole European Debt Treaty as well.

edited 23rd Apr '12 6:45:03 AM by Greenmantle

"To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield" — Alfred, Lord Tennyson
 1222 Game Chainsaw, Mon, 23rd Apr '12 6:52:26 AM from sunshine and rainbows!
The Shadows Devour You.
I think people looking for Sarkozy's downfall may be getting a little over-excited; Marine Le Penne will have split the right vote. With her out the running, Sarkozy's probably going to get an avalanche of returning supporters. Unless Hollande' has a similar source of reinforcements coming he's probably going to get his ass handed to him in the run-off, by my calculations. With all that implies for Frances fiscal policy.

EDIT: I'm duplicating this point over in the French Presidential Election thread so if people want to discuss it in depth we should probably do so there.

edited 23rd Apr '12 6:53:51 AM by GameChainsaw

 1224 Octo, Mon, 23rd Apr '12 2:01:13 PM from Germany
Prince of Dorne
Including regular terms end in "have fallen" is disingenuous, as is describing reelections in the Netherlands as "Netherlands collapsing [/E: Wait, somebody said so... but apparently not in this thread. Huh] People are getting somewhat sensationalist.

edited 23rd Apr '12 2:02:06 PM by Octo

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Decemberist
Its not disingenuous, there is a massive anti incumbent backlash against forced austerity. But the Coalition in the Netherlands has fallen apart because Wilders refused to enforce the stupid 3% deficit rule.
Dutch Lesbian
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