Taiwan's Independence

They used to have a fairly low international profile.

That attitude's fallen by the wayside lately, in favor of a resurgent nationalism pushed by their leadership to distract the people from governmental reform.

Maybe we should just round out NATO to be global.

Well, international organizations lose power as they encompass more countries. The UN was originally supposed to be more peacekeeping, too.

Anyway, this and PRC's current status could use another thread.

alright, new seato with connections to NATO. after all, there'll be at least 2 or 3 overlapping members, all of which would be the top 2-3 in each alliance. (U.S. Britain and France.)

Your plane went close to their territories first though. And your marines got a week in a 5-star hotel in return for delicious delicious US military tech. So it's all good.

edited 27th Jan '13 6:38:07 PM by IraTheSquire

we were more than 100 miles from even their territorial waters.

Hence I said "close".

@Ira The Square: Yes, I'm suggesting that China is willing to puff up its chest to intimidate Taiwan and use diplomatic means to put pressure on it, but has so far been unwilling to actually pursue military action against Taiwan, and I don't see a declaration of independence changing that. If the Cold War taught us anything, it's that the world's major powers may talk a big game, but they're too practical to start World War III over something so petty.

Wouldn't it be best to just not risk it though? I mean, the chance of WWIII is small, but that's really not something you want to risk.

it all depends. Mainly on how seriously China takes the U.S., and how the U.S. reacts.

it would likely play out something like this if taiwan moved for independence. Taiwan gets the process going, China makes threats. the U.S. would support Taiwan, and send carriers. China would start mobilizing as taiwan makes the declaration, and the U.S. carriers would be deployed to the area, with various other forces on standby.

Then we'd see who blinks.

If china wanted to really invade, they'd have to hit the carriers first, unless the U.S. withdrew. if they hit the carriers, it's World War III. The U.S. withdraws, taiwan is invaded and China fights a very costly war, and we lose massive amounts of respect on the world stage, and our enemies would feel we won't stand up to them.

edited 27th Jan '13 7:26:51 PM by Joesolo

If it came to that, is there a possibility that the US could choose not to send carriers, and sacrifice Taiwan?

I really don't see why China can't just drop the charade; it does nobody good. A war would leave Taiwan damaged, and it would be costly to all involved.

Yes, But a very slim one. Every other time China stirred up trouble we sent carriers. pretty much any time theres trouble we have an interest in we send carriers.

if we stayed out, it likely wouldn't escalate beyond a chinese invasion of taiwan, barring excessively unrealistic scenarios that involve china royally pissing off Japan and/or India at the same time.

good old hard headedness.

edited 27th Jan '13 7:34:31 PM by Joesolo

The thing about the Cold War is that the US and Soviet have not threatened each other to the point where one side thinks that if they are not going to war they are in big trouble. PRC sees Taiwan independence as a possible precursor to independence movements in other parts of China which is the threat, so with that she'll go to war.

Also, PRC launched missiles at POC during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. Soviet and US, as far as I know, never actually fired missiles at each other.

Finally, the thing about Cold War is that the two sides are major superpowers with capabilities to destroy each other. Both Soviets and the US are aware of this. This time, however, Taiwan herself cannot hope to win against PRC alone and has to rely on US backing, which means that PRC is far more confident that she can invade Taiwan without problems. And even with US backing I'm not sure if PRC is going to risk having other places declaring independence by not going to war, especially when the local Chinese there will definitely ask for one.

edited 27th Jan '13 7:42:37 PM by IraTheSquire

Taiwan DID have a nuclear weapons program for a while, and has some civilian reactors right now. Theoretically, they could become nuclear armed. And though I'm not one for the spreading of nuclear weapons, that'd probably be a good thing for Taiwan, especially given they have a submarine force and could easily have second-strike capabilities.

Oh yeah. That might work. Though I'm a bit worried about how crazy the PRC will get if Taiwan seriously declares independence. If she gets as crazy as I imagine her to be we might end up a nuclear war in the region.

edited 27th Jan '13 7:45:20 PM by IraTheSquire

Exactly. I wouldn't be concerned about Taiwan using them, I'd be concerned about China using Taiwan's as an excuse to use theirs.

Oh, slight problem.

according to Wikipedia "The People's Republic of China has announced that any Republic of China possession of nuclear weapons is grounds for an immediate attack." :\

Oops. Missed that bit. Damn.

She really is that insane regarding Taiwan.

edited 27th Jan '13 7:52:58 PM by IraTheSquire

Could they have a set up like Israel, where they have them unofficially? Would that work?

Edit: I'm guessing no, as the PRC wouldn't care if it's official or not?

edited 27th Jan '13 7:53:26 PM by Lascoden

Thing about Israel is that she has nuke while her enemies doesn't, so there's nothing her enemies can do. Problem with PRC and POC is that PRC also got nukes as well.

edited 27th Jan '13 7:54:39 PM by IraTheSquire

About the only thing they could do would be develope them in secret, produce missile capable of hitting eastern China(that bit's not hard), and then either go Israel(refuse to confirm, but make sure they know), or go full on "We have them, and we have enough to wipe you out", which would not be easy.

Exactly, about the only way to go would be to have enough that it wouldn't matter if the PRC cared or not.

edited 27th Jan '13 7:58:01 PM by Joesolo

Also remember that the PRC has less reason to fear a nuclear exchange than the ROC - its a huge country with billions of people in it, whilst Taiwan is a small island. Fifty Chinese nukes landing on top of Taiwan are quite capable of killing everyone on it it, glassing the surface, and making the island uninhabitable for centuries. Fifty Taiwanese nukes (assuming they have that many or indeed any at all!) could kill what, 300,000,000 Chinese? There's 1,000,000,000 left, along with a huge interior to retreat into if the coastal regions become untenable.

Think my history teacher once put it aptly: "Taiwan's entire population going to China would cause...a minor traffic jam".

The problem is that the US might get involved if China starts nuking Taiwan, and we have enough nukes to carpet bomb China and make the entire country uninhabitable for a couple of centuries as well as killing off every person who lives there.