Venezuela and the Chavez Legacy

That, and neither the US nor Cuba is in South America. Chile seems to get talked about now and then, but that's about it.

There's no reason there shouldn't be a SA politics thread, but it shouldn't be this.

There should be a Bolivia thread, but I cannot sea one. [trollface]

Hey, that's my line. (Chilean here.)

More like geoline amirite?

@ Obama not asking Congress,he does that a lot nowadays.

@ Condoning a Dictatorship, everyone else in the world trades with them, plus many in the US public see Castro as a hero.

Seeing as I just linked to the Latin America thread[1] I'm really not sure why people are bring the Cuba talk here, there's an appropriate thread for it and people should use that one or petition the mods to change the name of this one.

Anyway, leaving that aside... i see the PSUV as being really weak.

They are politically dead. They've got the ONU, CIDH, many ex-latin american presidents, Canada, Spain and the European Union against them. Plus, the high command was sanctioned by USA and Castro has a new black best friend.

What I'm worried about is that they are never going to accept defeat just like that. The opposition isn't willing to go to more radical extremes either. So far I've only heard of general Angel Vivas and RAV joining forces with Popular Will but he is more along the lines of, "we are peacefully resisting, but we are willing to use force if we have to." I don't know what to make of it.

edited 18th Dec '14 11:33:46 PM by HibikiOni

It won't come down to an armed rebellion/civil war, because only one side has guns (and tanks and planes they're willing to use). It probably would've happened already if it weren't for that.

I wonder what General Vivas thinks of Popular Will's idea for a constituent assembly.

It probably would've happened already if it weren't for that.

I doubt it. Maybe in 2002, but not past the Paro Indefinido (which hurt the opposition a lot more than the government). After that point, the lower classes became both too cynical towards the opposition (not without some measure of reason) and too apathetic to bother fighting. To provoke them, things would probably need to go hellbound enough as for the military to be affected as well, and at that point where the armed forces are unsatisfied, the lower classes are a moot point (the higher classes already have been a moot point for quite a while. Guarimbas at the North of Caracas didn't do and won't do a shit).

The way I see it, basically, the sole way Maduro can go down is if the country, overall, has gone down enough itself as to not support his weight anymore.

edited 19th Dec '14 9:41:41 AM by NapoleonDeCheese

You don't need the masses for such a conflict, tho. A smaller group with war arms (and financing, forgot to mention that) can try getting matters into their own hands.

(Note that I only said it could start, not that the rebels would win or that it would be a good thing.)

To be fair to the armed forces, at least most of the high ranking officers i know from the military circle hate the living shit out of chavism. From most accounts I've got the low-end of the military (most of them) have to deal with the scarcity like the rest of us, but at the same time they are way too passive and lack any kind of leadership. So do they have the guts to make the coup if things go mayhem? i honestly don't know.

It's annoying just to think we don't have any other way out, but then again it can't be helped.

Also keep in mind, even a successful coup would have to deal with the international stigma of having overthrown a government established by voting.

The global community has gotten to a point where all military coups are seen as bad (which is the ideal position to take, on itself), BUT still hasn't offered a really workable alternative to get rid of pernicious governments that won't go out peacefully and will weasel and cheat their way into continued office, either.

Not to mention that Chavez is still a left wing hero to many in the global left,and thus they are a least somewhat loyal to his memory. I can only imagine how Hollywood would scream bloody murder if we backed another coup in South America,and against the heir of their golden boy no less.

I still wouldn't count on the Armed Forces for anything good.

I still maintain that (organized) non-violent civil resistance is our best way out, but it doesn't seem like we'll be going through that route, so...

There is no 100% reliable method for installing a good government, but there are variations as to the average quality of governments created by a given act. A military coup usually falls in the "bad" category, and while there is precedent for a bad government being succeeded by a better one after a coup Meet the New Boss is also frequent.

If yearning for a coup is the best the Venezuelan opposition can manage they deserve to be out of power for decades.

Opposition politicians, the ones who theoretically would be in power (e.g. the MUD), do not yearn for a coup. The ones who do are random citizens who see no other way out to fix the country.

That's like saying Washington and his comrades in arms deserved the English government because they could see no better exit than an armed rebellion.

And before you say 'Other times!', this is the Third World. For all intents and purposes, we ARE far behind in the times. We can't help but being, because that's the way society has shaped itself (and the rest of the world also has let it happen, by the way).

edited 21st Dec '14 7:44:07 AM by NapoleonDeCheese

It's easy to say that when you live in a country other than Venezuela.

Are we talking about deserving it "strategically" or morally.

If it's strategically ("if the best you can do is wait for militarymen to overthrow the government then put you in, you don't deserve to govern") then I'd agree.

If it's morally, I believe a military coup would be justified. (Not necessarily what might come afterwards.)

A lot of people consider that's exactly what happened to Leopoldo.

Keep in mind that it was Diosdado himself who took Leopoldo to Ramo Verde, there's even a video where Lilian thanks him for taking care of his husband so much.

So what exactly happened? let's say Diosdado doesn't want the Cubans in this place, which can be Half-true to some extend and that he has everything ready to make the coup against platanote. So they could have made a deal for him to make the coup and leave Leopoldo in power so he can be left alone. But still, being part of the opposition, willingly giving himself in and acknowledge chavism as justice and trusting DIOSDADO of all people is just... HARG!

On the other side, no one really trusts the MUD itself and while Maria Corina is really optimistic, she was also the one who thought the oil prices going down were a good thing.

I want things to go nicely and all that and i DON'T WANT another superman to show up or even worse than that, but what i want is only one thing and the way things are is another. Saying things can't possibly go wrong at this point is tapar el sol con un dedo.

edited 21st Dec '14 10:03:24 AM by HibikiOni

I doubt Leopoldo intends (or intended) that. I believe he just saw himself more of a nuisance to the government as a martyr than in clandestinity or in exile (and it seems he's right), and it's out of his control who brings him to jail. Lilian (and Leopoldo's father) has said a couple politically questionable things (after all, they aren't politicians), I wouldn't think too much about it.

For whatever it's worth, here's an interview of him explaining many things, including his jailing.

The way things are now, with nearly every single institution being under control by the government, i see a constituent national assembly, even the way Leopoldo proposes it combining it with civil protest as a death or glory attack... and that's being optimistic.

Also, keep in mind all of the manipulation we've been exposed to for over 15 years by the Cubans, keep in mind the consequences of believing in personalities.

Anyway, if anything I'll try my best in my own way, but it will be because i want this place to get better and not because i trust anyone.

edited 22nd Dec '14 11:27:02 PM by HibikiOni

It sure is hard to trust people nowadays, isn't it? I don't mean that we should automatically follow Leopoldo or anything, just that I don't think he intended the insurrection thing.

I don't agree with undergoing a Constituent Assembly either, the CNE and TSJ literally don't have to do anything for it to go anywhere, and the blacklists, and...

That said, good luck with whatever you're going to do to make things better.

On actual constitutional news, the TSJ judged that the reds would get to choose the Moral Power (Attourney, Comptroller and Ombudsman) by having a mere simple majority rather than the two thirds required by the constitution.

We've had two blackouts today, and I'm writing this while dreading a third one.