British Politics Thread

Still wondering if the SNP will be tempted to run outside Scotland...

There are also plenty of IndyRef voters who voted Yes, but who are not SNP voters and were quite vocal at the time that their support for independence was not to be viewed as endorsement of the SNP (Salmond being a big issue). These, in particular, are going to be the voters who stick their fingers up to Westminster for the post-ref farce.

It would be great if they could give Plaid a short, sharp (and probably very painful) lesson in how to do things properly.

edited 5th Mar '15 3:04:11 PM by Wyldchyld

It seems a key factor behind the SNP surge is that they can ensure Scotland gets a better devolution deal, if not devo max, than the one the Smith Commission presently has on the table, preferably with Labour should they ally to force Cameron out of Downing Street.

I thought support for Welsh independence is practically non-existent since they don't have the same advantages Scotland has. (Though they are still pushing for devolution).

edited 5th Mar '15 3:07:30 PM by KoBB

Exactly. The No campaign liked to paint the Yes campaign as all about the SNP, but that was only true in that the SNP were the biggest and most vocal supporters of it, as well as the initiators. I know plenty of Yes voters who loathe and despise the SNP, and social media had plenty of "Labour voters for Independence" groups, etc, and I'm sure there were plenty of "SNP voters against independence" groups too. But a Yes vote wasn't about crowning King Alex, that was merely a convenient way of discreting both Yes and SNP.

Yeah, Plaid Cymru has never escaped Labour's shadow in Wales in the same way the SNP have. Last Scottish election, the leaders of the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems all stood down after the scale of the SNP success. PC are about even with Labour, and less distinctive as a party. Voters just don't have the appetite for it there, it seems.

That there is less of a cultural distinction between England/Wales as England/Scotland may be a factor. I'm not sure if the legal status has anything to do with it, in that Wales joined the Union as a conquered nation, technically, whereas Scotland joined purely voluntarily. Still, far more laws originated in England also affect Wales than Scotland.

You'd think that would cause more resentment, not less.

In a sense, yes, but it also means that over the centuries the English will has been imposed to a greater extent than ever happened in Scotland. Scotland had a couple of centuries of extra independence before the Union. The Welsh may, to an extent, have become more used to the English way of doing things than the Scots have?

It's also a potential legal landmine were the Welsh to vote in a referendum for independence, as I don't think there would be any way around the English having a say in the matter (It was questionable whether that was the case with the Scots, with the voluntary union being the key reason why the English might not have had a choice).

Wales didn't join the union technically. The union was between England and Scotland, legally Wales was conquered in medieval times and added to England.

Historical irony: a block of Welsh lords outright supported Henry "Kind of Welsh" Tudor against the House of York. Um. Whoops? Guess which family consolidated more power in the Southeast of England and cracked down harder on any attempts at Welsh grumbles? Just guess...

@KoBB: Independence, no. Further devolution to current levels of Scottish devolution? Yes, there's strong support for that.

The main reason why Independence isn't as strongly supported in Wales is because we don't have a party that has become a viable Westminster-independent party the way SNP has finally managed to do in recent years. The other significant reason is that Wales is so economically weak, it's a struggle to see how Wales could survive alone. It would be more correct, I think, to say that there's a strong dream of the idea that Wales could be free, but practicality - and infamous Welsh cynicism - prevents that desire translating into actual support.

To take one example, which may or may not seem minor, but indicates how the sentiment is simmering and just waiting for the sort of spark that lit up Scotland; the Union Flag is an extremely sore point in Wales, for lack of representation. Truthfully, the reason for this is because Wales is a conquered nation and therefore is represented by the English cross. However, there is a strong appetite for a Welsh presence (people speak of adding the Ddraig Goch but it would make more sense to add the cross of St. David to the other three crosses, and result in the least change, as it would just add a band of yellow - either highlighting the centre red cross, or a yellow cross within the centre red).

Not so long ago, the Tories majorly screwed up when they were asked by some English journalists about changing the Flag to accommodate a Welsh presence. The level of contempt and derision among the Tory MPs who responded, and the open mockery over the Flag 'celebrating' the subjugation of Wales, caused ructions in Wales. It takes a special level of dickery to alienate even the pro-English regions of Wales.

edited 6th Mar '15 2:18:00 PM by Wyldchyld

I'll give my (Welsh) father's opinion on this one. The biggest obstacle is the fact that South Wales, which is the most populous region of Wales and hence the most powerful politically, is dominated by the biggest conservatives in the whole of the UK: The Welsh Labour Party. He calls them the biggest conservatives because the last thing that the Welsh Labour Party want is change thank you very much.

How Thatcher’s Government Covered Up a VIP Pedophile Ring

Lord Baker: Conservative-Labour coalition may be needed

Needless to say, major SNP involvement post-Election could also benefit the SNP — as it would send English nationalists haywire, as it would be seen as Westminster being dictated to^note  Again — after the "Scottish Raj" of the New Labour years by the Scottish. Of course, a Conservative-Labour coalition might have exactly the same effect in both England and Scotland.

Leader profile: 24 hours with Nigel Farage

Lobbyists 'delaying Apache contract'

edited 7th Mar '15 6:12:47 AM by Greenmantle

The Tories and Labour actively trying to keep Snp out could end up empowering them. They need to tread carefully.

Also it won't happen, Labour aren't goign to pick the Tories over the SNP, plenty within Labour would be happy with an SNP coalition.

I really hope the Lab-SNP coalition happens. The butthurt of the Little Englanders would be delightful...

That it would.

Lab-Lib-Green-SNP: of my dreams.

Just beware of Terrorist attacks.

I'm surprised that there is no comment on the growing possibility of DC being "empty chaired." This whole spat from the Conservatives calling on Labour to rule out a SNP coalition is clearly their attempt to regain the initiative from the debate disaster.

One factor I think that might come into play is what you might call the "Ministerial Car" factor. The SNP might have a smaller room to negotiate following the failure of the Liberal Democrats to secure anything from the Conservatives last time. As such, it has become accepted that the leaders of the Liberal Democrats were swayed by having a disproportionate number of governmental positions rather than anything meaningful in terms of policy: hence calling it the "Ministerial Car" factor.

What I am trying to say is that should the SNP wish to enter into a formal coalition with Labour, I don't think they can take home governmental influence in exchange for policy commitments such as the removal of Trident from Scottish soil, as it would been seen as the leaders selling out for personal perks. Which makes negotiation around issues such as Trident almost impossible, as one compromise could be that a SNP politician is made Defence Secretary, and thus notionally in control of how Trident is managed. Take compromises such as this out of the equation, and you get an impasse: the SNP have campaigned strongly on getting Trident out of Scotland and thus can't really back down on this issue. Labour would look too weak if they allowed such as critical decision such as the location of our strategic nuclear deterrent to be decided through coalition horse trading as opposed to "an open and honest debate on the principle of a nuclear deterrent*."

Although, in my opinion I think the idea of coalition has been discredited, and as such a looser agreement of confidence and supply works out better for both parties. That way difficult issues can be kicked down the road.

• or as one Admiral famously described it: "Trident, Britain's biggest phallic object yes or no?"

So apparently there's another Tube strike going on because a driver who failed two alcohol tests got sacked.

@singularityshot: I would disagree with your father (not that I don't understand where his opinion comes from, because I do), but that sounds like an awfully single-issue and skewed (and therefore very simplistic) complaint about the problems in Wales (including the problems with each of the Welsh parties).

The Tories certainly are obsessed with the idea of a Labour-SNP coalition, but I do agree part of it is an attempt to deflect from Cameron's behaviour over the debates. I'll say this for the media. It's good they didn't cave to his dictates over the debates. While I'm not a fan of how much power the media has in elections, the thought that a single party leader (of any colour), especially a prime minister, being able to dictate election debates the way Cameron has openly tried to do, is appalling.

edited 8th Mar '15 11:00:26 AM by Wyldchyld

Is there any plausible way a Lib Dem/SNP/Green coalition would work? I don't personally think it would be a very good government policywise, I just favor it because it would be the weirdest administration ever.

No, you're going to need one of the big two to form a majority, the numbers simply can't work otherwise.

edited 8th Mar '15 11:17:55 AM by Silasw

It's most likely the standard opinion of a Welsh exile. My father left to go to University and pretty much never looked back.

Technically, all a government needs is the "ability to command the confidence of the Commons."

So, assuming that our Green / Liberal Democrat / SNP three-way doesn't have a majority (very likely), a government formed of these groups would need some very particular circumstances. But hey, I enjoy a good hypothetical scenario.

First assumption: We need Labour to rule out a coalition with the SNP, or we need negotiations to fail, as that pairing is looking likely to form the backbone of any administration.

Second assumption: Labour cannot form a rainbow coalition without the SNP.

Third assumption: UKIP does well enough to disrupt the Conservative vote, but not well enough to be able to form a UKIP-Tory coalition. This would need to do two things: one, stop a Conservative government, but critically it also needs to force a leadership challenge, or even better cause the party to split.

Fourth assumption: Labour tries to go for a minority government, but cannot get a Queen's speech passed. Crucially, this has to be seen as a personal failing of Ed Miliband as opposed to a failure of electoral mathematics. Essentially, we need again to see a leadership challenge to the Labour party.

Fifth assumption: Establishment figures in both the Labour and the Conservative Party agree that neither party is in a position to fight a new General election. Knowing that the only way to avoid an election is for a government to pass a Queen's speech, they approach our Lib Dem / SNP / Green groups and offer them the "confidence of the Commons" for a period of six months while they sort out their leadership woes.

Sixth assumption: Britain enjoys an economic recovery, as the temporary government makes a fortune by setting up giant nets above parliament to catch the flying pigs.

The third assumption is actually reasonably likely. UKIP won't win as many seats as their diehards seem to think due to their support being spread widely but not concentrated enough in a few areas. They will, however, stop a few Tories from getting in by splitting the right wing vote in swing constituencies. Labour will benefit from that.

Labour will still carve up Scotland with the SNP, and as little as I like Labour, I can't rule out them doing very well, perhaps due to Status Quo Is God. Glasgow is the key - if the SNP gets most of it, they can dominate discussions with Labour. Without it, they could have every other seat in Scotland and struggle.