What was Osama bin-Laden doing there?

Posting this in a new topic, since the other topics seem to be about the results of his death. This topic is about the implications of his past five years of life.

The place where he was staying was very interesting, to say the least. What was the ISI and/or the Pakistani government thinking?

Pakistan's sort of a failed state. I don't think the government there has that much power.

Do what now?

My theory right now is that Pakistan wants to keep friendly with the United States but they didn't want to just hand over OBL because a good portion of their people side with him. My guess right now is that Pakistan was notified by the US that we're going in, and they will be complaining about the US going inside of their border to save face with their populace.

WHAT A HORRIBLE NIGHT TO HAVE A DIALOG BOX INTERRUPT GAMEPLAY.

Pakistan was supposedly not informed of the operation that killed bin Laden until after it was already over.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.

as I understand it, we didnt tell them about the operation till it was already going.

Oh, he wasn't in one of the tribal areas? Interesting.

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No, he was 90 miles away from the capital of Pakistan in a large compound which was suppose to be quite luxurious at least for Pakistan.

edited 2nd May '11 10:13:22 AM by Raso

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OTOH, it apparently lacked phone or internet, so...

Also, it was closer as the crow flies, but much further by road, thanks to the terrain.

Islamabad is right on the edge of some pretty stupendous terrain.

I'm just glad that despite what a monster he was, he still got a respectful Muslim style burial. That'll take a shitload of fire out of the violent rhetoric knowing full well that despite everything, the US gave him a proper burial and di9dnt descrate the remains.

He was in a compound 1 kilometre away from Pakistan's main military academy, in an affluent town 35 miles away from Islamabad. The government there will have questions to answer about how exactly he went under their noses there for so long.

My name is Addy. Please call me that instead of my username.

The impression I got was that it deliberately lacked telephone and internet connections, perhaps to avoid the possibility of communications being tapped?

"You can only come to the morning through the shadows."

Supposedly is the key word. If they were informed ahead of time and the OBL supporters in the country found out, there would be a shitstorm. It's just my theory, though. Whether they were informed or not, Pakistan will most likely start bitching at the US about violating their sovereignty, either to save face or because they actually are pissed about their sovereignty being violated.

edited 2nd May '11 10:29:03 AM by Driscoll

WHAT A HORRIBLE NIGHT TO HAVE A DIALOG BOX INTERRUPT GAMEPLAY.

Yeah that was a very wise move. Make it abundantly clear to everyone that this was about crimes, not faith.

That along with the specific wording used by political leaders, particularly Obama, about it.

This was a fight against a man who has committed crimes against humanity - not against a religion he purportedly (though in reality definitely didn't) follow/represent.

My name is Addy. Please call me that instead of my username.

Sadly the reason he has to constantly state it like a person talking to a child is because we have assholes pastors burning Qurans and making people think it IS a religious war.

Back on topic, as OBL's death is the subject of another thread:

What in the world was the ISI thinking? Did they honestly think they could harness him for use against India?

The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence is full of radicalized officers initially put in place by General Zia-ul-Haq. They see him as an ally. They see him as someone who can liberate Kashmir. They had successfully convinced the Americans until a few months ago that he was in the tribal belt (by giving many a Suspiciously Specific Denial and saying he was in Afghanistan). With the US about to leave the region, they figured once gone, OBL could launch a new Kashmiri intifada.

Also, Osama had good relations with the Taliban's spiritual leader and former Emir of Afghanistan, Mullah Omar (who is ALSO in a major Pakistani city...). With bin Laden and Omar together, the Pakistanis would be able to reconstitute a friendly regime in Kabul under the Taliban. And in order for any Afghan regime to be friendly to Pakistan (because the Pashtuns, even the Taliban, don't recognize the Durrand Line and thus accuse Pakistan of subjugation of their rightful lands that had been given to the British under duress by a treaty that was voided in 1947), they have to push Islamic fundamentalism, because only under that ideology would anyone in Afghanistan ever fight Indians (they have historically good relations, and Subcontinental Muslims are mostly Sufi, which is anathema to the fundas), and its the only way Afghanistan can't be co-opted by Indians in the forever feared pincer that Pakistan thinks India wants to do.

So they did it because Pakistan is paranoid about being surrounded and they want someone they can throw at India in return.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

Also, the Pakistani's are convinced that the US cannot possibly win in Afghanistan, that the Taliban are going to out-last us, and that since they have to live there after we pull out, they want some reasonably constructive relationships with various factions of the Taliban. It's insurance for when Pakistan has to go it alone. Keeping Osama around in reasonable comfort probably gave them leverage over Al-Queda, or at least that part of it that was still connected to Bin Laden. Allowing him to die at our hands thus deprives them of a poker chip. The Pakistanis are actually pretty smart, once you see things from their perspective.

"We learn from history that we do not learn from history."

The point is not that Osama was in Pakistan, but that he was in a very rich garrison town, home of many rich generals, not far away from a central military academy, definitely one of the non-failed parts of the state - that reeks of the Pakistani military or intelligence apparatus having protected him. Which wouldn't necessarily mean the Pakistani government, ISI has basically been a rogue agency for decades, even if noone wants to call it so.

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The entire idea that the US can win in Afghanistan is lunatic. The Soviets didn't manage, and how long were they there? 20 years?

"That said, as I've mentioned before, apart from the helmet, he's not exactly bad looking, if a bit...blood-drenched." - juancarlos

Except it's not. 2011 USA =/= 1970's/80's USSR that was spiraling towards dissolving.

Except it is. The Brits at the height of their power couldn't do it either. Nor could Alexander. Or the Russian Empire at its own height. Or the Persians. The best they were able to do was negotiate a treaty with the Durrani Empire to rent its southern lands that ended up becoming "permanent" (I use the term lightly in this case) with the existance of Pakistan, which retained the lands.

They don't call it the graveyard of Empires for nothing.

Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...

A bunch of mostly impassable mountains on what happens to be semi-desertic land. Populated with some of the most warlike and feud-prone peoples in existence. What Could Possibly Go Wrong??

You exist because we allow it and you will end because we demand it.

Here's how the US wins in Afghanistan...declaring itself the winner now, and wishing whoever rules the place a good time.

We did the first part 8 years ago. Also thats irresponsible. We fucked up two regions. The least we can do is TRY to stabilize it instead of leaving them for the wolves.

It would be easier yes but easier isn't always better.

edited 2nd May '11 1:16:44 PM by Thorn14