The Arab Spring

Way to piss off some devout Muslims, stupid ISIS.

Edit: Pagetopper...

edited 25th Jul '14 6:39:50 AM by Quag15

I know. It offends the Historian in me. History, just plain destroyed...

History and culture, to be more comprehensive.

Doesn't the Saudi government regularly dynamite anything the Prophet so much as breathed on?

AQIM burned manuscripts and dynamited shrines in Timbuctoo. The people who want to lead a Muslim renaissance seem very good at destroying all the relics of when Islam actually was a dominant and dynamic cultural and scientific force.

Yes. They usually erect 5-star hotels and shopping malls in their places. Mohammed, pieces be unto him...

... No? They'd be crazy to do so. Granted, the Prophet's residence is no longer standing (only his grave and those of Abu Bakr and Umar are intact, in a fenced-off enclosure within the Prophet's Mosque), but I'm not sure if that's something done in the Saudi era or from even earlier (i.e. during the Ottoman client state era).

They demolished antique buildings from the Ottoman era and confiscated (with measly "compensations" in return) then demolished the homes of Meccan residents for expanding the Sacred Mosque and/or to build those luxury buildings that you speak of. Get your facts straight.

edited 25th Jul '14 7:03:01 AM by MarqFJA

The tomb of Amina bint Wahb, the mosque of Fatima Zahra, the mosque of Hamza ibn Abdulmutallab, the tomb of Abdullah ibn Abdul-Muttalib, the tomb of Eve, the house where Muhammad was born, the house he lived in in Medina, the house his first wife lived in, the Jannat al-Baqi, the Jannat al-Mu'alla, and Ali's house just fell over naturally then?

See here.

The house Mohammed was born in, for instance, is now under a ruined library. The Saudi government seems determined to turn the Two Holy Cities into a sandier, shittier imitation of Leeds.

edited 25th Jul '14 7:37:49 AM by Achaemenid

Could we take this conversation to the general thread?

So President Hadi cut fuel subsidies on pressure from the IMF. There were protests. Army came in. The Spring may be back on in Yemen...

From Reuters.

edited 30th Jul '14 11:05:15 PM by FFShinra

Islamists are declaring Benghazi a seperate state. It seems General Haftar's forces still control the airport, but they've been kicked out of the city proper. Gov't denies it, says the militias stormed the last national army position there, looted it, and then left.

The Zintani and Misrati aligned militias are STILL battling for the Tripoli airport.

The Reckoning has come for Libya. [1]

edited 31st Jul '14 6:52:25 PM by FFShinra

Meanwhile, in Lebanon....

The worrisome part of this article is how Arsal, unlike the rest of Lebanon, doesn't respect the Army. If so, then perhaps this is where the match will be lit.

I also read other articles...Lebanon is starting to turn away Syrian refugees except those in battles immediately adjacent to the border (which is to say, no one at all since rebels only control one or two villages in the vicinity of the border) and that any who go back for any reason lose refugee status (and many do, often to keep papers up to date, to get cheap medicines, etc.). The same article said the refugee population there is now 1/3rd of the entire population, up from 1/4th (so it's certainly understandable that Beirut has started cracking down, even if its worrisome).

Thoughts?

And just as predicted, the first ever rebel raid into Lebanese territory has occured in Arsal. Ten soldiers dead, another dozen captured.

How will Lebanon respond?

The article didn't say. But I imagine that won't help the already tenuous situation with the refugees.

What I'm curious about is whether the rebels will try again and actually hold territory.

That was/is my concern.

Doublepost - Yemen: The displeasure of the Houthis.

Shelling in Marib lead to civilian casualties (1 woman and 2 children).

Okay that warning sounds more than a little ominous given the power of the Houthi militia...

BTW, I got paywalled so I may not be reading it in the right context, but WSJ figures the attack on Arsal wasn't just a raid, but that they actually actively control the city right now.

So much news today from just a cursory search of Google, it ain't worth linking.

So instead I'ma ask, what's everyone elses thoughts on Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, and Syria?

Jeez you lot are a tough bunch.

Well I got more interesting stuff anyway. Seems like a former Egyptian foreign minister has suggested that Egypt should intervene in Syria. This has the Egyptian media wondering if Cairo will actually do it.

Given that Amr Moussa is close to the dear Field Marshal, and given that there has been previous speculation that Egypt and Algeria have already involved themselves in General Haftar's crusade, and this seems like its all going according to plan.

Getting into a quagmire when you already have massive economic issues and public discontent? That doesn't sound very bright. If this goes wrong the domestic consequences could be massive.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/04/world/meast/iraq-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

The Kurdish forces in Iraq have successfully held off IS fighters from taking the Mosul dam, the largest source of hydro-electric power in the country. So far the Kurds seem to be holding off the overall IS offense as well.

edited 4th Aug '14 7:14:51 PM by Rationalinsanity

The Peshmerga have encircled IS forces in parts of Shangal. No way the Kurds aren't going to not get more kudos now.

As to what I think of the entirety of this, I'll just echo some other, more cynical commentator who said that Muslims killing Muslims for very little reason seems to be regarded as business as normal by almost everyone.

A building gets bombed, a baby gets buried in the rubble... and yet they manage to save her. I couldn't believe my own eyes.

SHE LIVES! AHAHAHAHA!

No, seriously, this video just made my day. Good job, rescue workers.

Here's the followup.

Small victories do come in the midst of great calamities, but neither diminish each other (which is to say we shouldn't cynically downplay her rescue in light of the continued chaos in Syria, nor act as though this will change anything in the long run).

Re: Egypt and intervention: I think Sisi has much bigger fish to fry on the domestic front. His embarrassing performance at the polls (highlighted by the need to illegally lengthen the voting window) should show that his rule is tenuous enough without getting involved in foreign adventures. The Haftar Affair is probably about as far as they'll go, and neither Sisi nor Bouteflika have really benefited (as the other article indicates, Haftar's losing out to the Jihadis wherever he's made gains against the Government).

Re: Yemen. What good does the IMF do for anyone, again? They seem designed to spread human misery rather than prevent it.

Re: Lebanon. A far more dangerous thing, since the country's been put into a pressure cooker already, the whole thing could explode, and would likely drag Israel into it, since they've otherwise been pretty good at holding steady on the Golan and keeping the chaos away from them (and keeping themselves from getting more involved).

On Egypt and Libya, I agree with you. However, Cyrenaica is where most of Libya's oil is and it's making me wonder if Cairo thinks seizing it would make it popular with the people or something...

On Lebanon, I'm desperately looking for more info. This really is the most important thing happening now.

edited 6th Aug '14 1:25:35 PM by FFShinra

Not much news out of Lebanon I've caught. I think the most recent I've heard is a secondhand tweet from either Dan Drezner or Andrew "Abu Muqawama" Exum noting that the most surprising thing is how comparatively stable Lebanon is despite absorbing a million-plus refugees.