The Arab Spring

Again from BBC live broadcast (though currently they're showing recorded stuff, mainly Gaddafi's speech and reactions):

According to UK's Foreign Secretary William Hague, a plane is chartered to evacuate Britons from Libya; in addition, HMS Cumberland, a frigate currently in the East Mediterranean, is to be deployed near Libya in case it's needed to protect Britons.

Already mentioned.

Dunno how I missed that; I read the rest of your post but somehow didn't notice that bit. Oh, well.

Here's another one of my BBC links, this time about the actions the British government are taking to save their people (the substance of this article has for the most part been mentioned on this thread, but links are nice.)

Literal Gunboat Diplomacy?

I don't think the force of a single frigate is sufficient for that. More likely, its main purpose is to receive people from smaller ships or boats to shorten the trip these vessels will have to take so that more people can be evacuated in less time.

In addition, it can probably help thwart further attempts by Libyan air force to strike again. This cannot be done without air superiority (which would not be a challenge to the air forces of the EU members on the Mediterranean), but a frigate near the coast can be of use.

I doubt that this will be the only ship the UK deploys in the area or that UK will remain the only nation that has navy deployed near Libya if the crisis goes on.

edited 22nd Feb '11 3:14:42 PM by BestOf

Libyan Navy ships off the coast of Malta, could be defectors, could be Qaddafi's last fuck you to the West...

Oh, and it looks like General Younis, the former second-in-command and former Minister of the Interior, defected - perhaps he'll be the face of the opposition, in which case this strangely reminds me of Romania...

Times of Malta says it's full of defectors.

Another source.

EDIT (moving from previous post): As for whether or not the UN should consider a rapid deployment of peacekeepers, there was a protestor screaming at the BBC's camera: "Gaddafi [is] destroy[ing] Libya now! Help us! Help us! Please, please, help us!" [I fixed some of his grammar for clarity.] (EDIT: After seeing the clip again, fixed the quote; now it's accurate.)

edited 22nd Feb '11 3:39:36 PM by BestOf

Well that seems like an invitation to help if there ever was one.

ANSA (Italian) also says they're defector ships, and apparently they disobeyed the order to fire on Bengasi.

Duh, from one of the above sources I read they protested in Malta against Italy's ties with Lybia. After all, the rumor about Italian aircraft bombarding must have had a reason

Berlusconi has phoned Ghed... Ghad... Qad... whatever after the speech, but the only thing they say for now is that he has dismissed to claims of Italy furnishing weapons to protesters, and has pushed for a pacific resolution. After all, B. must be extremely embarassed, this is a bad hit on his international credibility (like it wasn't tarnished already). Not that I'm sad of this.

edited 22nd Feb '11 3:30:23 PM by GendoIkari

HE'S DESPERATE! Oooh! He'p me, he'p me! Somebody he'p me! He'p me! He'p me! He'p me!

Wish the airforce was as reluctant to bomb civilians...

I don't recall if this has been mentioned on the thread yet (it's certainly featured in many of the links): East Libya, under revolutionary (certainly that word is applicable now?) control, has switched to flying the flag Libya had before Gaddafi's era. I guess we'll get to say goodbye to the only plain (as in, only one colour and no insignia, writing, or anything) national flag in the world.

Again from BBC's broadcast: apparently, oil tankers and other private vessels are offering to carry people out of the country, but only if they're paid in cash and in advance. Since cash machines aren't working, it's hard to get on board.

Personally, I don't see why the captains of these ships don't carry people for free, just demanding a receipt. The countries that these evacuees are from will be sure to pay a fair fare; if they didn't they'd have to explain to voters why the lives of their people are not worth paying to save.

More:

2328: Italian Defence Minister Ignazio La Russa says Mr Berlusconi briefed his ministers on his conversation with Col Gaddafi: "He called for an end to all violence and told us that the Libyan leader Gaddafi said a lot of the violence was against soldiers, against army barracks and that many of the dead, were among the military forces."

Well, I think I saw a figure of c. 50 military dead so far in Libya, don't know if that's in addition to the earlier figures of 300+ dead or if the larger figure includes casualties on both sides.

edited 22nd Feb '11 3:35:49 PM by BestOf

Well, receipts would be hard to tally. "Oh, yes, just sign right there... no neater, I don't care if there's an artillery strike you're running from, I need your signature!"

And at this point I think it's safe to assume that Libya's breaking up into at least two nations, though three is probable if the tirbes want one to themselves. Since Libya's oil is in the east, say hello to $5 a gallon gas.

Checked out of interest: the cheapest gas in Finland costs about $7.5 per gallon at the moment.

I hope what's happening in Libya is teaching reformers/protesters elsewhere that they had also be ready to take up arms, especially in places that aren't as nice.

^ U.S. dollars?

edited 22nd Feb '11 3:51:38 PM by GlennMagusHarvey

Yeah, I looked up the cheapest rate in Finland (which was in €s per litre) and converted it to dollars per gallon (had to look up how many litres a gallon makes).

/offtopic

edited 22nd Feb '11 3:54:10 PM by BestOf

God damn.

I'm fine with five a gallon. Not many others will be, though.

We should end this de-rail now before the thread is lost.

To return on-topic, based on stuff the BBC broadcast is quoting, Gaddafi certainly seems doomed. There's little if any confirmed support for his government among the general public in Libya.

From the broadcast (I'm linking it again):

0012: In the short term, the tools the West can employ to deal with the situation in Libya are limited, says Robert Danin from the Council on Foreign Relations. "What would be dramatic would be to employ a no fly zone over Tripoli to protect the protestors from Colonel Gaddafi's aircraft," he tells the BBC.

No shit, Sherlock!

edited 22nd Feb '11 4:22:28 PM by BestOf

Yeah, a no fly zone seems like a low risk, high reward strategy. I'm sure the fighters the EU has in the region make what Libya has look like a bunch of model airplanes.

Come on people, this is easy.

Yes, it's easy, but remember we're dealing with politicians. They've got to have... MONEEEEEY.

I wonder if Libya will split apart entirely, since Gaddafi seems to have ALWAYS had problems in the East due to cultural/tribal differences.

I also wonder if there are any constitutional monarchists in Libya anymore. After all, the last government before the lumpy one (may his spellings be many) took power was King Idris.

^ Never heard of him before, because I'm an American idiot who doesn't know world history. Who's King Idris and what was he like?

As for Qaddafi, his insistence on staying pretty much means that either:

• he'll be given a thorough smackdown, either by a violent protester (i.e. bucket-kicking) or by a court or tribunal, if there are few supporters of him remaining, or
• if there are enough, outright civil war.

Libya is split now because the East has been able to dispose of Gaddafi's reach over them more easily, but I have seen no reason why the split should remain once all this is over with.

(Looking him up on Wikipedia, summarising:)

Idris was head of the Senussi Islam movement, concerned with "decline" in Islamic thought and tradition. After Italy took Libya from the Ottoman Empire in WWI, Idris became the leader of the independence movement for his home region of Cyrenaica, one of the three traditional regions that make up Libya.

As the leader of the pro-Allied (pro-independent) movement in Libya (he opposed the Axis powers because Italy was the colonial master of Libya), he gained the favour of the Western powers. This ate away at his support in the other Arab regions / countries but enabled him to lead a united Libya's campaign for independence, which was gained in 1951.

Throughout his reign, he remained a close ally to the West, and probably for this he was faced with a popular (bloodless) coup d'etat in 1969 while he was receiving medical treatment in Turkey. The coup was led by none other than Muammar Al-Gaddafi.

edited 22nd Feb '11 5:21:00 PM by BestOf

FF Shinra - I hope not - Balkanising the country will not do the poorer bits of it any good, and I fear for the safety of any intertribal families.

Question for you all: if Gaddafi were to die tomorrow (preferably a stress-induced heart attack or something - not what you could easily call a 'martyr's death') do you think that would increase deaths or lessen them? Would it shatter what's left of his regime and cause his remaining supporters to flee or defect, or would his generals welcome the demise of such a spectacularly unstable leader?

I'm relieved (not glad - too many deaths) that the brutal repression school of regime salvage didn't work out this time.