The Arab Spring

Personally, I'm taking that "Russia may be softening their stance" notion with a bit of salt, as it were. Between the Russian naval base there and Syrian purchases of military hardware, Assad is still their best bet, from their viewpoint. Were the Assad regime to be overthrown, at least at the moment there's nothing saying any hypothetical new government would honor all of the agreements by their predecessor. (Not honoring previous commitments could be problematic, but it's not an automatic deal-breaker for any post-Assad government.)

All your safe space are belong to Trump

Maybe Russia is inching its way towards the conclusions that others (not all others, but some others) have already come to - that the Assad regime's chance of survival is growing thin and that it is time to start looking for the very limited number of lifeboats 'cause the iceberg is right ahead and the speed might just be too much for such a gargantuan beast to turn around in time.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

^ Could be. I said I was taking the notion with a grain of salt, not that I was outright rejecting the possibility.

So far, though, it's just been words, not deeds. Pure speculation, but they may well have a "smoke filled back room" agreement to say one thing in public and mean another in private.

All your safe space are belong to Trump

Yeah, well I was adding other spices to your salt, so to speak.

My analogies are full of inflammable gases today and people are taking pictures.

By inflammable I was referring to something that will easily self-destruct. If you didn't get the reference (which I tried to pin down by mentioning cameras,) I was alluding to the Hindenburg after having already used up the Titanic, much like Colbert did at the 2006 White House Press Association Dinner.

edited 10th Apr '12 6:32:10 PM by BestOf

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur.

^ Given I live in an area where "Hey, Bubba, watch this!" is both a fairly frequent self-inflicted Pre-Mortem One-Liner and notice for bystanders to watch for really funny shit, I'm all for flammability.

[edit]
Self-destruction on that scale can also be really funny shit for those of a certain mindset... and viewing from far enough away.

/derail

edited 10th Apr '12 10:17:34 PM by Nohbody

All your safe space are belong to Trump

Russia won't ever be on the side of the rebels because the rebels are too splintered to understand fully. Assad isn't just their best bet in terms of honoring contracts, but also their best bet for stability, which is ultimately what they want, so that they can make sure that the contracts CAN be honored, not just will. They also want that base.

If NATO could just reassure Russia, you might be able to get them, but the whole "Russia is always evil" trope continues to dominate NATO thinking.

Turkey is certainly starting to get really pissed.

To little surprise, Kofi Annan's peace plan has been ignored by Bashar al-Assad. It's hard to imagine that a veteran diplomat like Annan is really surprised by this, though we'll certainly see increased diplomatic activity in the next few days to try to salvage it.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.

I am very interested in how that plays out. If anyone is in the position to do anything, its Ankara.

Okay. Who brought up the possibility of Turkey calling for NATO help? Because it might be happening after all.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.

I did. <reads article> Let's hope this isn't an empty threat/promise.

edited 11th Apr '12 8:27:47 PM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Four reasons why an invasion of Syria is unlikely...

However- Turkey doesnt have to invade Syria to bring the regime down. It merely has to provide the Syrian resistance with a safe haven from which it can launch attacks against the regime.

And turn a blind eye to any covert arms-supplying to them, too. Don't they also host part of NATO's Partiot missile shield system, as well?

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

That's still in the planning stages, IIRC.

Yeah, it looks like the house of cards is starting to collapse over there...

Anything happening with the UN team sent to Syria?

They're recommending more observers, according to Yahoo News.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Anything from Yemen?

Not from me, but Yahoo News has an update on Syria: The regime challenges the UN request for sending more observers and including independent *

air support, stressing that the UN mission needs no more than the already sent 250 observers.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.

Also, apparently the new peace plans are calling for "safe zones". No mention about who's going to protect them.

Anyone else getting Srebenica flashbacks?

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.

I'm sure the international community has learned from any mistakes that may have happened in the past, and, mindful of the responsibilities it bears towards the ideals of peace and human rights, will act in a reasonable, efficient and quick manner to...

...

...bwahahaha.

Ah, sorry, couldn't go on anymore...

edited 18th Apr '12 3:39:48 PM by Octo

Unbent, Unbowed, Unbroken. Unrelated ME1 Fanfic

SE, including a lack of any kind of disciplinary action for the supposed "defenders" failing in their task?

(No, my opinion of the UN in general isn't all that high. This isn't the thread for that, though.)

Of course, even if the defense was carried out competently, there's still the issue that it's basically giving Assad an implied carte blanche to slaughter people outside of the safe areas if he so chooses.

All your safe space are belong to Trump

Not helping, Octo. They are trying, though.

Back in Egypt, the election commission banned ten presidential candidates, including the top three, from running. Tens of thousands of people are in Tahrir Square protesting.

Who runs the election commission?

Probably the military.