The Arab Spring

It's also a boogeyman used for distracting the people from the often corrupt and inept governance of many Arab countries, yes?

@Silas - These days I don't think they'd give a damn. I really do not. They care more about results right now.

Besides, by nature of special forces operations, its not like we'd trumpet the bloody thing.

In other news, the Kurds are entering the western suburbs of Manbij. Fallujah is falling to the Iraqi Army as well, but now there is a humanitarian crisis across Anbar.

Yeah, that's why I said "convenient".

And sadly this is only a preview of the humanitarian tragedy that will result from any attack on Mosul.

What sort of humanitarian crisis in Anbar? Internally displaced persons?

That's what I've gathered. It is Sunni heartland as well, so the Iraqi forces will probably face stiff resistance on the local level.

&Indeed.

There will have to eventually be a reckoning with the Hashid Shaabi within Iraq. I wonder how soon after Mosul that will be...or if it happens before Mosul...

There has been a carbomb on the Jordanian border. In the hours since, Amman has sealed that border completely, and declared them closed military zones. No new refugee camps are to be built or expanded. Any vehicles that approach said zones, if not cleared in advance, will be shot on site.

Assad's advance towards Raqqah seem to have been pushed back from what wikipedia's map is showing, Shinra is this showing on the maps you monitor?

Yes. Total rout all the way back to Ithiriya. And if Ithiriya itself were to fall, Assad's forces would be cut off in Aleppo. Courtesy of Edmaps.

Was to be expected. They had made the push to Taqba right when the Kurds seemed to be pushing to Raqqa. With the SDF going for Manbij instead, Raqqa-based forces could redeploy south.

edited 26th Jun '16 11:38:17 AM by FFShinra

Lot of news from Syria. Daesh has now turned its guns toward Kurdish forces north of Raqqa and have taken a village just south of the village of Ayn Issa, the Kurdish staging area for any attack from the north into Raqqa. At the same time, they have launched attacks from Turkey against Kurdish border towns.

Elsewhere, Assad looks to close the Aleppo pocket. Not to be outdone however, Idlib-based rebels have also launched a new offensive against Latakia, with the immediate intent of recapturing Kinsabba from Assad.

But most significantly, if you all recall, it was reported here a few weeks ago how southern rebels had managed to capture a Syria-Iraqi border post from Daesh. Well now they are using said border post for an offensive, coordinating with the US Air Force and Iraqi tribes (who had helped them capture the post weeks earlier) for a push along the border toward the river, to seal Daesh forces from Anbar.

Wait, is ISIS launching suicide bombers/terror attacks against Kurdish villages from Turkey? Or do they still have enough assets there to launch series offensives?

Less launching attacks from Turkey and more running their money, supplies and fresh recruits though Turkey.

These seem to be happening because this is the rear guard more than anything else.

So the general trend is that ISIS is still on the ropes but has a lot of fight left in them? Syria seems an inevitable loss for them now, and the best bet is to fight hard enough to create a rump state in Iraq that no-one will feel is worth fighting to dislodge them from.

I'd say they have even less prospects in Iraq. At least in Syria, they have access to a relatively neutral nation in the form of Turkey, and can take advantage of the civil war by expanding where the other factions are too weak to resist; in Iraq, they get all the focus.

But yes, they are still on the ropes if the bloody Kurds could ever be assed to take Raqqa rather than everywhere BUT Raqqa. If the SDF keeps putting off the offensive, they are going to come into trouble. Either Raqqa will be that much harder to take, or it gives Daesh an opening to attack somewhere else.

I'm not so sure on Raqqa hardening, remember the offensive westward will do more then just connect up the Kurdish territory, it will also cut ISIS off from Turkey, thus maybe allowed a siege to be done.

edited 29th Jun '16 7:24:23 AM by Silasw

They did not need to take Manbij to cut off Raqqa, they just needed to secure Lake Assad while Assad came from the south to secure (or at least distract) Taqba. Now Assad's offensive has been pushed back while the Kurds offensive is stalling out as they keep trying to take Manbij.

Turkey begins gearing up for war with the Islamic State in response to Istanbul airport attack.

See, Kharijites, that's the problem with being a movement built on fanaticism and sociopathy. Sometimes it's hard to keep your lunatics from attacking the people who have every reason to want you to succeed.

I'll believe this when it happens and not a moment sooner.

edited 30th Jun '16 5:40:45 PM by Rationalinsanity

>Turkey prepares for war against ISIL

>Goes to war against the Kurds instead

edited 30th Jun '16 5:46:49 PM by AngelusNox

That would in no way surprise me.

Yeeeah, I'm also on the wait and see wagon.

On the other hand, if they did intervene, that'd change things even more than the Russian intervention did.

Would Turkey's involvement actually speed up ISIL's demise or just deepen the clusterfuck there?

Both.