North Korea

I think we'd still keep bases in Korea if it united. Look at japan, we've got bases up and down it's islands.

That's a legacy of WWII, though.

It's because of China and the Norks. When the wall came down, we left the Philippines, downsized USFK and the US Army Japan.

US Army's leaving depends on a "peaceful" transfer of power up North. Remember, much of the Nork's punch clock villains have been living high on the hog while the people in the country starve. If the Kim's fell, many would fear the trials that would call them to account.

Worst case scenario, something that makes Somalia/Bonsia look like a playground fight.

edited 2nd Feb '13 7:53:27 PM by TairaMai

I rather doubt it would get to somalia levels. It'll be a mess though. The DMZ will probably be left up just to contain the chaos if it does get really bad though.

De-mining the DMZ would take years, too.

EDIT: And a Chinese annexation of North Korea would cause huge fury in the South, especially as it would mean Mt Baekdu would be lost to Korea, which is sort of akin to Stalin dynamiting the Washinton memorial and taking a shit on the rubble in terms of the rage it would incur.

edited 3rd Feb '13 9:00:12 AM by Achaemenid

China cant do that. Seriously, that would probably cause one of the biggest shit storms in a LONG time. They don't have any kind of a claim on the country.

not to mention, the biggest thing in the north is independence from other countries. I really doubt they'd rather be taken over by China than the South. a insurgency wouldn't surprise me.

Some people earlier have suggested that China could, in the event of NK collapsing (which looks increasingly likely to occur at some point) de facto annex the country under the guise of humanitarian aid, as a way of stopping the nightmare scenario, in their eyes, of US troops being based on their borders, which they possibly could be in the event of a Korean reunification.

I was just pointing out the furious reaction that would engender in the South.

edited 3rd Feb '13 9:04:21 AM by Achaemenid

If there was a second Korean War, which would end in unification under South Korea's system, there would probably be a need for foreign countries to deploy for a while (a decade?) in Korea to help the "new" govenment survive insurgencies with minimal fuss.

My guess is that China would end up providing the forces for what once was the North, with NATO continuing its deployment in the South. Thus it would be similar to the current situation from a military point of view, and China would have some means to protect its interests.

Eventually both forces (NATO and China) would probably withdraw, and my prediction in this scenario would be that they would negotiate a simultaneous withdrawal under a carefully planned and mutually agreed schedule.

There would be a demilitarised buffer zone in the North of the unified Korea, as China would demand it at the UN. China might also demand the right to maintain some (token) military forces in the North in a couple of bases they will have built for the initial deployment, similar to how the US has maintained military bases in some of the countries they occupied during WWII. If China was allowed to do that, NATO might also demand a similar number of bases in the South.

Again, Northern denizens would not take kindly to a Chinese occupation, even if its only militarily. Korean troops (yes even US imperialistically-corrupted evil pig dog Korean troops) would be preferrable to the Chinese in their minds.

Sometimes these things happen without the locals being asked. For instance, when Czechoslovakia was forced to cede the Sudetenland to Germany, the meeting was between Germany, France, Italy, and the UK. No one from Czechoslovakia was invited.

Similarly, after WWII the USSR "negotiated" the right to lease land in parts of Finland. The Finns had no say on this (though we probably at least had some token representatives in the negotiation,) and through the Cold War the UN was supportive of this arrangement.

The point I'm making is that if China demands bases as part of a peace settlement organised by the UN the Koreans won't necessarily be asked whether this is acceptable or not. Hopefully this won't be the case but China is very powerful in the UN, especially when it comes to matters of East Asia. Superpowers can get special treatment.

The point I'm making is that the North Koreans would react violently if this occured, and if its well known enough as a possibility for us here on this forum to infer, the head honchos will likely come to the same conclusion and not pursue such a roughshod policy.

I thought even North Korea's official stance is sort of admiration for China. I don't see the violent reaction here.

They admire China as long as it provides them with aid and buys their crappy exports at fraternal socialist rates.

I imagine they would be less enamoured if Beijing informed them that it was taking over the running of their country, because the single goal of all North Korean policy is to keep the Kim family and its henchmen in power by any means necessary. A Chinese annexation of North Korea wouldn't be conducive to that goal.

Also racial supremecy courtesy of Juche.

The racism will be very hard to overcome. I don't need to name a historical example of an ideology with the racial superiority of its main adherents at its centre. We all know how hard that sort of fundamentalism is to deal with. It is so easy for people to believe that they were born better than the other peoples of the world.

Go on. Nazism. But notice how quickly Nazism as a viable ideology collapsed post WWII? Because the faith of Germany in her leaders had been ruined by its military defeat. If we get an Iraq-style situation, where the ROK and the UN roll over the KPA and swiftly capture the country, we may see something similar.

On the other hand, Hitler had Germany for 12 years. Realistically, the Kim dynasty will have had North Korea for at least 75 years, probably 100, before the regime collapses or is destroyed.

edited 3rd Feb '13 4:31:42 PM by Achaemenid

I'm not talking about just that. Think about Soviet-style Communism. Or the Imperialistic ideologies of certain European countries - the ones that became Empires, basically. How long did it take them to grow out of ideas of racial supremacy? Japan seems to be mostly out of it, but it lasted for a very long time there - and obviously I'm not just talking about Japan in the 20th century.

The point is that if a country adopts a system where the people are brought up believing that they're superior because of their race, that "lesson" can be very hard to unlearn, and it'll cause problems for a very long time.

I guess I should point out that I don't believe that reunification will be impossible. I'm just saying that the racist Juche ideology/religion will be a huge problem.

According to the Juche system, are the North and South Koreans the same "race"? Like, do they see the South as "racially polluted", or just "ideologically polluted"?

BTW, Shinra, now that I've thought about it some more I agree that the North would probably be more hostile to Chinese bases than they would be to "South Korean" ones. Whether they would be able to drive out the Chinese is an open question in this scenario.

I suggested that China would play its game in the UN so that it would end up with bases in North Korea. I cannot say how far China might be willing to go to keep those bases if they were to lose the UN's backing or if there was violence against the Chinese in North Korea.

But the point that the North would probably react violently is established.

This article by Hitchens (also linked last page in this thread) gives something approaching an answer to that question.

edited 3rd Feb '13 4:58:21 PM by BestOf

Thats a good point. China trying to make some lemonade out of the lemon of NK collapsing is certainly possible. Though I admit a bit of schadenfreude at the idea of Chinese troops having to deal with an actual potent insurgency....

According to Wikipedia's article on North Korean propaganda,

I must admit I had never heard of this video before I stumbled on this article. So apparently if I'm ever to visit North Korea (which I'm 99% sure I won't) I'll be wise to trim my long hair before I go; if I don't they'll assume I'm stupid, as my brain has been deprived of the nutrients that my body spent on my hair. I wonder if this idea is also prevalent in the South; after all, they believe in Fan Death...

edited 3rd Feb '13 5:18:18 PM by BestOf

The biggest problem is the ontological shock of seeing their worldview crumble. Most of the mooks took the propaganda to heart. The upperclasses fear the fall of the Kim Regime because they know the peasants will turn on them.

The US would have to act fast and pull a Xanatos Gambit: allow Chinese troops in under UN supervision. Have a United Korea sign a non-agression pact with China but allow US troops to "help" (read, keep an eye on) China.

The problem would be stay-behind actions, various general rippers who'd want to seize power and all those WMD's the Norks have. It's an open secret that they have targeted Seoul with chemical weapons in the event the South invades.

I think we could just allow them to be included in the U.N. Korea forces. Preferably only token forces, and a a number of observers.

It is still technically a U.N. force. It'd be massively ironic though, considering it's the same force the Chinese fought against.

edited 3rd Feb '13 7:22:24 PM by Joesolo

There's also the distinct possibility that that the the leaders will set off their nukes if things go wrong for them.

We have to enjoy the heartwarming thought that, given the twin factors of communication and human error in a paranoid culture, the nukes could go off by accident.