History Main / HomeByChristmas

** After a month of fighting, Russian forces abandoned their original goal of capturing Kyiv as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were instead redeployed to Eastern Ukraine to seize the region and subsequently claim a face-saving victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive devolved into a stalemate with major breakthroughs failing to materialized (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets that resulted in Ukrainians wiping out an entire Russian battalion tactical group of over 400 soldiers). Then in September, the Ukrainians launched their own counteroffensive that retook key cities like Kharkiv and Izyum; this attack was especially disastrous for the Russian military as they suffered heavy losses in equipment and manpower while also losing key supply lines for their forces in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. In an attempt to replace loss manpower, Putin announced a partial-mobilization effort that included conscription of Russian men, which was met by angry internal protests and civilians fleeing to avoid the draft. These shocking setbacks and questionable decisions resulted in unprecedented internal dissent with Russian pundits and politicians openly criticizing Russian leadership and some even calling for Putin's resignation.

** After a month of fighting, Russian forces abandoned their original goal of capturing Kyiv as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were instead redeployed to Eastern Ukraine to seize the region and subsequently claim a face-saving victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive devolved into a stalemate with major breakthroughs failing to materialized (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets that resulted in Ukrainians wiping out an entire Russian battalion tactical group of over 400 soldiers). Then in September, the Ukrainians launched their own counteroffensive that retook key cities like Kharkiv and Izyum; this attack was especially disastrous for the Russian military as they suffered heavy losses in equipment and manpower while also losing key supply lines for their forces in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. In an attempt to replace loss manpower, Putin announced a partial-mobilization effort that included conscription of Russian men, which was met by angry internal protests and Russian civilians fleeing to avoid conscription. These shocking setbacks and questionable decisions resulted in unprecedented internal dissent among Russian pundits and politicians with many openly criticizing Putin's leadership and some even calling for his resignation.
** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Seeing the Russian war effort as a lost cause, many of Putin's international allies like China's Xi Jinping, India's Narendra Modi and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan turned against him either by, respectively, refusing to supply the Russian military, publicly rebuking him at a summit or even aiding the Ukrainians. Unable to rearm due to sanctions and isolation, the Russian military was reduced to buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea, two nations already isolated from foreign trade due to sanctions. Even within the non-Western sphere, Russia saw its legitimacy and influence decline with nations blaming Putin's war for exacerbating global inflation and pivoting instead towards China and India. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia's larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on, and what was depicted in their propaganda as a [[BadassArmy modern, unstoppable army]] turned out to be little more than a PaperTiger.

** However, the invasion started to unravel before it even properly began. The United States government collected a large amount of intelligence about the details of the probable Russian invasion and made this information public, causing the Russians to delay the invasion by four days out of fear that their chain of command had been compromised. When the invasion did begin in proper, ultimately vindicating the American intelligence community after their failures prior to the Iraq War, it wasn't the awe-inspiring success that many expected. The initial Russian missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers, SAM sites, and fighter locations, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to put together a real defense. The Russian Air Force was poorly equipped and inexperienced in precision bombing and suppression of enemy air defenses, preventing them from establishing air superiority. Meanwhile, paratroopers and mechanized forces spearheading the assault failed to secure forward bases and key infrastructure needed to springboard further offensives. Russia was caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight, especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government remained in Kyiv instead of fleeing, providing a major morale boost for the country. Even those who had been expected to collaborate turned against Russia.

** As it happened, nobody’s plans succeeded as they hoped, and in the face of mass casualties from devastating firepower, the soldiers on both sides of the Western Front started to dig trenches for protection, which would eventually stretch from the Swiss border to the French coast. These early trench lines were built in a hurry and could have been broken through with a well-executed attack, but the problem was that everyone had already run out of manpower, ammunition, etc. due to the lack of preparation for a longer war, meaning that by the time they had rebuilt the capability for an offensive, the trench defenses had been upgraded to such a level where it was almost impossible to break through. Theaters other than the Western Front were less static, but these didn’t reach a quick conclusion either. The war would drag on for four years before an eventual Entente victory over the Central Powers. The funny things is that the complete demographic, economic, and government collapse described in the pre-war predictions is what finally brought down the main Central Power of Germany, but the prognosticators had disastrously underestimated how long it would take for this to happen.

*** While the damage to the US Pacific Fleet was devastating, the Japanese failed to actually attack the port facilities and infrastructure in Pearl Harbor itself. As a result, even though most of the battleships were sunk, they were sunk in shallow water right next to the facilities that would be needed to repair them. This would allow the US to repair the damage to the Pacific Fleet much faster than Japan anticipated.

** However, the invasion started to unravel before it even properly began. The United States government collected a large amount of intelligence about the details of the probable Russian invasion and made this information public, causing the Russians to delay the invasion by four days out of fear that their chain of command had been compromised. When the invasion did begin in proper, it wasn't the awe-inspiring success that many expected. The initial Russian missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers, SAM sites, and fighter locations, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to put together a real defense. The Russian Air Force was poorly equipped and inexperienced in precision bombing and suppression of enemy air defenses, preventing them from establishing air superiority. Meanwhile, paratroopers and mechanized forces spearheading the assault failed to secure forward bases and key infrastructure needed to springboard further offensives. Russia was caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight, especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government remained in Kyiv instead of fleeing, providing a major morale boost for the country. Even those who had been expected to collaborate turned against Russia.
** The main ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), weak supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), unsecured communications that let the Ukrainians spy on everything they were doing, and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics such as close air support or infantry screening for tanks. At the same time, Russia forces were hampered by the weather and terrain as cloudy weather stymied the Russian Air Force and the melting snow turned the passable fields of eastern Ukraine into mud that bogged down Russian vehicles, further slowing their advance. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Subsequently, while both sides took heavy losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its weapons with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions. Although Russia was able to partially stabilize its economy, the sanctions prevented the import of replacement equipment like new thermal cameras and sensors, forcing Russia to divert time and resources away from the front lines and towards making their own versions.

** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Seeing the Russian war effort as a lost cause, many of Putin's international allies like China's Xi Jinping, India's Narendra Modi and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan turned against him either by, respectively, refusing to supply the Russian military, publicly rebuking him at a summit or even aiding the Ukrainians. Unable to rearm due to sanctions and isolation, the Russian military was reduced to buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea, two nations already isolated from foreign trade due to sanctions. Even within the non-Western sphere, Russia saw it legitimacy and influence decline with nations blaming Putin's war for exacerbating global inflation and pivoting instead towards China and India. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia's larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on, and what was depicted in their propaganda as a [[BadassArmy modern, unstoppable army]] turned out to be little more than a PaperTiger.

So you're at war, and you're preparing for a big offensive that will finally turn the tide in your favour. You have ASimplePlan for the whole affair, and your RedshirtArmy far outnumbers the {{Mooks}} defending the city, bridge, fortress, or whatever strategical MacGuffin you're planning to seize. You are all but assured that the upcoming battle will be a CurbStompBattle in your favor... and you confidently announce, "NothingCanStopUsNow" After all, WhatCouldPossiblyGoWrong

*** The Japanese intended to destroy the entire US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor. However, what they didn't know was that the US Pacific Fleet's most valuable ships, the aircraft carriers, weren't in port during the attack and escaped damage. These carriers played a crucial role in suppressing Japan's expansion attempts and keeping the United States a relevant naval power in the Pacific. Additionally, nobody at the time realized just how much the battleship's role had diminished and how carriers were the true decisive naval weapon (ironically, Pearl Harbor itself went a long way to establishing this shift), so while the Japanese knew that this was a missed opportunity, they had no idea just how powerful the US Navy still was.

** After a month of fighting, Russian forces abandoned their original goal of capturing Kyiv as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were instead redeployed to Eastern Ukraine to seize the region and subsequently claim a face-saving victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive devolved into a stalemate with major breakthroughs failing to materialized (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets that resulted in Ukrainians wiping out an entire Russian battalion tactical group of over 400 soldiers). Then in September, the Ukrainians launched their own counteroffensive that retook key cities like Kharkiv and Izyum; this attack was especially disastrous for the Russian military as they suffered heavy losses in equipment and manpower while also losing key supply lines for their campaign in the Donbass region. In an attempt to replace loss manpower, Putin announced a partial-mobilization effort that included conscription, which was met by angry protests and rioting among civilians, with many fleeing the country to avoid being conscripted. These shocking setbacks and questionable decisions resulted in increased internal dissent with Russian pundits and politicians publicly questioning Putin's leadership and some even calling for his resignation.
** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Seeing the Russian war effort as a lost cause, many of Putin's international allies like China's Xi Jinping, India's Narendra Modi and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan turned against him either by refusing to supply the Russian military, publicly rebuking him or even aiding the Ukrainians. Unable to rearm due to sanctions and isolation, the Russian military was reduced to buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea, two nations already isolated from foreign trade due to sanctions. Even within the non-Western sphere, Russia saw it legitimacy and influence decline with nations blaming Putin's war for exacerbating global inflation and pivoting instead towards China and India. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia's larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on, and what was depicted in their propaganda as a [[BadassArmy modern, unstoppable army]] turned out to be little more than a PaperTiger.

** After a month of fighting, Russian forces abandoned their original goal of capturing Kyiv as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were instead redeployed to Eastern Ukraine to seize the region and subsequently claim a face-saving victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive devolved into a stalemate with major breakthroughs failing to materialized (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets that resulted in Ukrainians wiping out an entire Russian battalion tactical group of over 400 soldiers). Then in September, the Ukrainians launched their own counteroffensive that retook key cities like Kharkiv and Izyum; this attack was especially disastrous for the Russian military as they suffered heavy losses in equipment and manpower while also losing key supply lines for their campaign in the Donbass region. In an attempt to replace loss manpower, Putin announced a partial-mobilization effort that included conscription, which was met by angry protests and rioting among civilians. These shocking setbacks and questionable decisions resulted in increased internal dissent with Russian pundits and politicians publicly questioning Putin's leadership and some even calling for his resignation.

** After a month of fighting, Russian forces abandoned their original goal of capturing Kyiv as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were instead redeployed to Eastern Ukraine to seize the region and subsequently claim a face-saving victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive devolved into a stalemate with major breakthroughs failing to materialized (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets that resulted in Ukrainians wiping out an entire Russian battalion tactical group of over 400 soldiers). Then in September, the Ukrainians launched their own counteroffensive that retook key cities like Kharkiv and Izyum; this attack was especially disastrous for the Russian military as they lost key supply lines for their forces in the Donbass and were forced to abandon hundreds of advanced vehicles. These shocking setbacks lead to increased internal dissent as Russian pundits and politicians publicly questioned Putin's leadership with some even calling for his resignation.
** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Seeing the Russian war effort as a lost cause, many of Putin's international allies like India's Narendra Modi and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan turned against him either by refusing to supply the Russian military, publicly rebuking him or even aiding the Ukrainians. Unable to rearm due to sanctions and isolation, the Russian military was reduced to buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea, two nations already isolated from foreign trade due to sanctions. Even within non-Western sphere, Russia saw it legitimacy decline with nations blaming Putin's war for exacerbating global inflation and pivoting instead towards China and India. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia's larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on, and what their propaganda had claimed to hell and back was a [[BadassArmy modern, unstoppable army]] has been revealed to be little more than a PaperTiger.

** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Seeing the Russian war effort as a lost cause, many of Putin's international allies like India's Narendra Modi and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan turned against him either by refusing to supply the Russian military, publicly rebuking him or even aiding the Ukrainians. Unable to rearm due to sanctions and isolation, the Russian military was reduced to buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea, two already isolated nations. Even within non-Western sphere, Russia saw it legitimacy decline with nations blaming Putin's war for exacerbating global inflation and pivoting instead towards China and India. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia's larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on, and what their propaganda had claimed to hell and back was a BadassArmy has been revealed to be little more than a PaperTiger.

* ''Film/ComingHome'': In early 1968, Captain Bob Hyde is told by a superior officer that he is lucky to be gettinmg in on the combat in Vietnam while has the chance, because the Americans will soon be victorious and the war will be over. "Word is that Charlie's shot his wad."

** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Seeing the Russian war effort as a lost cause, many of Putin's international allies like India's Narendra Modi and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan turned against him either by refusing to supply the Russian military, publicly rebuking him or even aiding the Ukrainians. Unable to rearm due to sanctions and isolation, the Russian military was reduced to buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea, two already isolated nations. Even within non-Western sphere, Russia saw it legitimacy decline with nations blaming Putin's war for exacerbating global inflation and pivoting instead towards China and India. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Even Putin's allies turned against him either by refusing to support his military, publicly rebuking him or even aiding the Ukrainians. Unable to replace its lost equipment due to sanctions and isolation, the Russian military was reduced to buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea, two already isolated nations. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

** After a month of fighting, Russian forces abandoned their original goal of capturing Kyiv as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were instead redeployed to Eastern Ukraine to seize the region and subsequently claim a face-saving victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive devolved into a stalemate with major breakthroughs failing to materialized (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets that resulted in Ukrainians wiping out an entire Russian battalion tactical group of over 400 soldiers). Then in September, the Ukrainians launched their own counteroffensive that retook key cities like Kharkiv and Izyum; this attack was especially disastrous for the Russian military as they lost key supply lines and lost hundred of troops. The shocking losses, lead frustrated pundits and sitting politicians inside Russia to doubt the war effort and even openly criticize Putin's leadership.
** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Even Putin's allies turned against him with China's Xi Jinping refusing to send military aid, India's Narendra Modi publicly rebuking him in-person and Turkey's Recep Erdogan throwing his support behind Ukraine's efforts to reclaim Crimea. Unable to resupply its depleted equipment due to sanctions and isolation, the Russian military has been reduced to buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea, two already isolated nations. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Russia's war even costed Putin the support of his biggest international allies with India's Narendra Modi publicly rebuking him in-person and Turkey's Recep Erdogan throwing his support behind Ukraine's efforts to reclaim Crimea. Unable to resupply its depleted equipment due to sanctions and isolation, the Russian military has been reduced to buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea, two already isolated nations. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

** After a month of fighting, Russian forces abandoned their original goal of capturing Kyiv as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were instead redeployed to Eastern Ukraine to seize the region and subsequently claim a face-saving victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive devolved into a stalemate with major breakthroughs failing to materialized (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets that resulted in Ukrainians wiping out an entire Russian battalion tactical group of over 400 soldiers). Then in September, the Ukrainians launched their own counter-offensives that retook key cities like Kharkiv and Izyum, cutting off Russian supply lines and forcing soldiers to make disorderly retreat. In turn, frustrated war bloggers, pundits and sitting politicians in Russia began doubted the war effort and openly criticized Putin's leadership.
** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Putin has even lost the support of Russia's closest international allies like China President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi with the former refusing to supply the Russian military and the latter publicly rebuking Putin. The Russian military has been reduced to buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea, two already isolated nations. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

*** While Japan was well aware of America's industrial superiority, even they couldn't predict the sheer scale of its wartime production. The US not only largely restored the US Pacific Fleet to its original condition, but massively expanded it with hundreds of new ships of all types by the time the war ended.

* At the start of UsefulNotes/TheAmericanCivilWar, both sides assumed it would end in a quick victory. Confederate Secretary of War Leroy Pope Walker even predicted he would be able to mop up all the blood spilled with a ''handkerchief''. The fact that Fort Sumter surrendered without any casualties from the shelling contributed to this idea[[note]]The first casualties of the war from each side happened at Fort Sumter during ''the surrender ceremony''. Six Union soldiers wounded by a spark setting off a pile of cartridges, and a Confederate who accidentally poisoned himself by drinking some confiscated alcohol, not realizing that it was rubbing alcohol meant for cleaning surgical implements rather than liquor. The Confederate lived after getting his stomach pumped, two of the Union men did not.[[/note]]. Instead, it killed more Americans than any war before or since.

** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. Putin has even lost the support of Russia's closest international allies like China President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi with the former refusing to supply the Russian military and the latter publicly rebuking Putin. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

** The main ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), weak supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), unsecured communications that let the Ukrainians spy on everything they were doing, and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics such as close air support or infantry screening for tanks. At the same time, Russia forces were hampered by the weather and terrain as the melting snow turned the passable fields of eastern Ukraine into mud that bogged down Russian vehicles, further slowing their advance. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Subsequently, while both sides took heavy losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its weapons with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions. Although Russia was able to partially stabilize its economy, the sanctions prevented the import of replacement equipment like new thermal cameras and sensors, forcing Russia to divert time and resources away from the front lines and towards making their own versions.
** After a month of fighting, Russian forces abandoned their original goal of capturing Kyiv as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were instead redeployed to Eastern Ukraine to seize the region and subsequently claim a face-saving victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive went so badly that Ukrainians were able to retake major cities like Kharkiv and inflict heavy losses on Russian force (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets that resulted in Ukrainians wiping out an entire Russian battalion tactical group of over 400 soldiers). Subsequently, pro-war bloggers and pundits in Russia began doubting the war effort and publicly criticizing the Kremlin leadership.
** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

*** The Japanese intended to destroy the entire US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor. However, what they didn't know was that the US Pacific Fleet's most valuable ships, the aircraft carriers, weren't in port during the attack and escaped damage. These carriers played a crucial role in suppressing Japan's expansion attempts and keeping the United States a relevant naval power in the Pacific.
*** While the damage to the US Pacific Fleet was devastating, the Japanese failed to actually attack the port facilities and infrastructure in Pearl Harbor itself. As a result, even though most of the battleships were sunk, they were sunk in shallow water right next to the facilities that would be needed to repair them. This would allow the US to repair the damage to the Pacific Fleet much faster than Japan anticipated.
*** The Japanese heavily underestimated the average American's willingness to fight, taking the country's stance on neutrality and non-interference as a sign of weakness. What they didn't expect was Americans universally angered at what they saw as an attack of treachery, especially since due to a communication error, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor before their formal war declaration reached the US. Public support for going to war skyrocketed and since Japan was allied with Germany, that gave President Franklin D. Roosevelt the perfect pretext to get involved in the war in Europe. Congress subsequently declared war on the Axis in a near unanimous vote.
*** While Japan was well aware of America's industrial superiority, even they couldn't predict the sheer scale of its wartime production. The US not only largely restored the US Pacific Fleet to its original condition, but massively expanded it with hundreds of new ships of all types by the time the war ended.
*** Japan's massive success at Pearl Harbor also ultimately backfired, because with the US losing all of its battleships, that forced the USN leadership to massively revise their Pacific strategy to instead use their lighter ships and aircraft carriers to conduct hit and run attacks on the Japanese and avoiding committing to a head on battle. This inadvertently thwarted Japan's Kantai Kessen Doctrine, and they had to resort to attacking the island of Midway to draw the cautious American carriers out, a risky gamble that they ultimately lost.

* On February 24, 2022, President UsefulNotes/VladimirPutin of the [[UsefulNotes/{{Russia}} Russian Federation]] announced a "[[InsistentTerminology Special Military Operation]]" in UsefulNotes/{{Ukraine}}, which was immediately followed by the [[UsefulNotes/RussiansWithRustingRockets Russian armed forces]] invading Ukraine simultaneously from the north, south, and east. Russia planned to use its military to quickly depose the pro-European Ukrainian government; install a new pro-Kremlin government in its place; disarm the country and prevent it from joining NATO; ensure the security and "independence" of the Russia-aligned Donetsk and Luhansk separatist states in the Donbas; and tighten its control over recently-annexed Crimea. This "Special Military Operation" was supposed to be a complete walkover against an inferior opponent, but instead Russia ended up in a grinding war of attrition where it suffered both military embarassments and geopolitical setbacks.
** Despite Putin and his spokespeople not revealing their expected timetable in their public declarations, Ukraine would subsequently claim to have captured secret Russian plans dated January 18th, describing an operation to take over Ukraine that was supposed to last 15 days, from February 20 to March 6. The execution of the Russian invasion supports the idea of a short campaign: it included elite paratroopers dropping behind enemy lines to capture airports, motorized troops racing ahead of their supply lines to capture objectives, and a caravan of armored vehicles bypassing centers of resistance as they attempted to drive straight into the capital city of Kyiv. Russia probably thought their DecapitationStrike would topple the Ukrainian government within three days or so, and that the rest would just be mopping up. They were so certain of their quick victory that they allegedly brought along parade uniforms for a victorious march through Kyiv's main Khreshchatyk Street, with awards for the "special military operation" already pinned to them.
** At a glance, the Russian armed forces seemed to have the upper hand. Compared to Ukraine, Russia boasted new and modernized tanks and aircraft as well as plentiful artillery and missiles, while the Ukrainians were dependent on Soviet-era weaponry that has become increasingly scarce even among former Eastern Bloc nations. Furthermore, Russia could easily attack on multiple fronts thanks to a network of military bases and rail routes surrounding Ukraine on three sides along with a navy that could assist in assaulting the south. Considering how the Ukrainian army barely existed back in 2014 and had all but rolled over when Russia initially annexed Crimea, the Russians did not take it seriously as a fighting force in spite of its subsequent development and expansion. Putin and his advisers' predictions about Ukrainian resistance were colored by their worldview: to them the Ukrainians and the Russians are essentially one people, and they considered the existence of an independent state of Ukraine to be unnatural and artificial. According to their conspiracy theories the post-Maidan government was nothing more than a "Nazi" coup orchestrated by Western powers against the wishes of the majority of the Ukraininan people, so when they invaded they expected masses of Ukrainians to desert, surrender, or even collaborate with their Russian "liberators" against the government in Kyiv. Lastly, the war planners believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, whether during or after the invasion. Ukraine would fall before it could recieve any military aid from those countries, and since any economic sanctions against Russia wouldn't hit until the conquest was a ''fait accompli'', the Western European countries that imported Russian energy might lose their stomach for economic retaliation.

** After a month of fighting, Russian forces abandoned their original goal of capturing Kyiv as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were instead redeployed to Eastern Ukraine to seize the region and subsequently claim a face-saving victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive went so badly that Ukrainians were able to retake major cities like Kharkiv and inflict heavy losses on Russian force (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets that resulted Ukrainians wiping out an entire Russian battalion tactical group of over 400 soldiers). Subsequently, pro-war bloggers and pundits in Russia began doubting the war effort and publicly criticizing the Kremlin leadership.

* On February 24, 2022, President UsefulNotes/VladimirPutin of the [[UsefulNotes/{{Russia}} Russian Federation]] announced a "[[InsistentTerminology Special Military Operation]]" in UsefulNotes/{{Ukraine}}, which was immediately followed by [[UsefulNotes/RussiansWithRustingRockets Russian armed forces]] invading Ukraine simultaneously from the north, south, and east. Russia planned to militarily depose the pro-European Ukrainian government; install a pro-Kremlin government in its place; disarm the country and prevent it from joining NATO; ensure the "independence" of the Russia-aligned Donetsk and Luhansk separatist states in the Donbas; and tighten its control over recently-annexed Crimea. This "Special Military Operation" was supposed to be a walkover, but instead Russia ended up in a grinding war of attrition where it suffered both military embarassments and geopolitical setbacks.
** Despite Russia not mentioning a specified timeframe in its public declarations, Ukraine would announce soon afterward that it had captured purported secret Russian plans dated January 18th, describing an operation to take over Ukraine that was supposed to last 15 days, from February 20 to March 6. The execution of the Russian invasion supports the idea of a short campaign: it included elite paratroopers dropping in to capture airports, motorized troops racing ahead of their supply lines to capture objectives, and a caravan of armored vehicles bypassing centers of resistance as they attempted to drive straight into the capital city of Kyiv. Russia probably thought their DecapitationStrike would topple the Ukrainian government within three days or so, and that the rest would just be mopping up. They were so certain of their quick victory that they allegedly brought along parade uniforms for a victorious march through Kyiv's main Khreshchatyk Street, with awards for the "special military operation" already pinned to them.
** At a glance, the Russian armed forces seemed to have the upper hand. Compared to Ukraine, Russia had a larger defense budget, more modern equipment and various high-tech toys which they implied could be around the corner such as hypersonic missiles and the T-14 Armata tank, while the Ukrainians were dependent on Soviet-era weaponry that have become increasingly scarce even among former Eastern Bloc nations. Furthermore, Russia could easily attack on multiple fronts thanks to a network of military bases and rail routes surrounding Ukraine on three sides along with a navy that could assist in assaulting the south. Putin and his advisers believed their own propaganda about Ukraine being a backwoods country with an inept government and citizens who are either unwilling to defend it or even willing to collaborate with the invasion, particularly in the East. Lastly, the war planners believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, and that in any case the invasion would be wrapped up before any serious sanctions hit.
** However, the invasion started to unravel before it even properly began. US intelligence cut through Russian obfuscation and determined they were about to invade, allowing US President Joe Biden to sound the alarm and causing the Russians to delay the invasion by four days. When the invasion did begin in proper, it wasn't the awe-inspiring success that many expected. The initial Russian missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers, SAM sites, and fighter locations, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to put together a real defense. The Russian Air Force was poorly equipped and inexperienced in precision bombing and suppression of enemy air defenses, preventing them from establishing air superiority. Meanwhile, paratroopers and mechanized forces spearheading the assault failed to secure forward bases and key infrastructure needed to springboard further offensives. Russia was caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight, especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government remained in Kyiv instead of fleeing, providing a major morale boost for the country. Even those who had been expected to collaborate turned against Russia.

** In February 1915, Entente forces started the Gallipoli campaign in an attempt to break the stalemate by knocking out the Ottoman Empire, who were allied with Germany and Austria-Hungary. The Entente hoped that by securing the Gallipoli peninsula and Dardanelles strait, British ships could sail to the capitol Constantinople where they would subsequently bombard the Ottoman into submission. What was supposed to last no more than a month turned into 8 months of the same brutal trench warfare sen on the Western Front. The invasion failed spectacularly as not only did the Entente failed to plan accordingly with no air superiority and specialized landing craft, but they badly underestimated the Ottoman Empire, which was originally written off as the "sick man of Europe".

** However, the invasion started to unravel before it even properly began. US intelligence cut through Russian obfuscation and determined they were about to invade, allowing US President Joe Biden to sound the alarm and causing the Russians to delay the invasion by four days. When the invasion did begin in proper, it wasn't the awe-inspiring success that many expected. The initial Russian missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers, SAM sites, and fighter locations, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to put together a real defense. The Russians Air Force was poorly equipped and inexperienced in precision bombing and suppression of enemy air defenses, preventing them from establishing air superiority. Meanwhile, paratroopers and mechanized forces spearheading the assault failed to secure forward bases and key infrastructure needed to springboard further offensives. Russia was caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight, especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government remained in Kyiv instead of fleeing, providing a major morale boost for the country. Even those who had been expected to collaborate turned against Russia.

* General Hancock makes a similar comment from the Union perspective in ''Film/{{Gettysburg}}''.

* At the start of UsefulNotes/TheAmericanCivilWar, both sides assumed it would end in a quick victory. Confederate Secretary of War Leroy Pope Walker even predicted he would be able to mop up all the blood spilled with a ''handkerchief''. The fact that Fort Sumter surrendered without any casualties from the shelling contributed to this idea. Instead, it killed more Americans than any war before or since.

** For Japan, their entire war doctrine was centered around fighting a quick war since they were well aware they lacked the resources, population, and industrial capacity to support a war of attrition. This gave rise to the Imperial Japanese Navy's "Kantai Kessen" (Decisive Battle) Doctrine. Taking what they learned from the Battle of Tsushima, the Japanese figured that they could quickly end a war before it could start by swiftly eliminating the enemy's naval capacity in a single battle. This led to them carrying out the attack on Pearl Harbor, under the impression that wiping out the US Pacific Fleet in port would force the US to surrender the Pacific to them. And if the US didn't surrender right away, it would take at least six months to rebuild the Pacific Fleet, which Japan could use to fortify their newly captured territory and deter any future attack, thereby forcing the US to come to the negotiating table. However, they made several critical mistakes in their assumptions.