History Main / HomeByChristmas

** At a glance, the Russian armed forces seemed to have the upper hand. Compared to Ukraine, Russia had a larger defense budget, more modern equipment and various high-tech toys which they implied could be around the corner such as hypersonic missiles and the T-14 Armata tank. Furthermore, Russia could easily attack on multiple fronts thanks to a network of military bases and rail routes surrounding Ukraine on three sides along with a navy that could assist in assaulting the south. Putin and his advisers believed their own propaganda about Ukraine being a backwoods country with an inept government and citizens who are either unwilling to defend it or even willing to collaborate with the invasion, particularly in the East. Lastly, the war planners believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, and that in any case the invasion would be wrapped up before any serious sanctions hit.

** At a glance, the Russian armed forces seemed to be with a larger defense budget, more modern equipment and a network of military bases and rail routes surrounding Ukraine on three sides. They had many times the number of fighter planes, a navy that could assist in assaulting the south, and various high-tech toys which they implied could be around the corner such as hypersonic missiles and the T-14 Armata tank. Putin and his advisers believed their own propaganda about Ukraine being a backwoods country with an inept government and citizens who are either unwilling to defend it or even willing to collaborate with the invasion, particularly in the East. Lastly, the war planners believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, and that in any case the invasion would be wrapped up before any serious sanctions hit.

** The main ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), weak supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), unsecured communications that let the Ukrainians spy on everything they were doing, and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics such as close air support or infantry screening for tanks. At the same time, Russia forces were hampered by the weather and terrain as the melting snow turned the passable fields of Ukraine into mud that bogged down Russian vehicles, further slowing their advance. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Subsequently, while both sides took heavy losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its weapons with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions. Although Russia was able to stabilize its economy somewhat, the sanctions prevented the import of replacement equipment like new thermal cameras and sensors, forcing Russia to divert time and resources away from the front lines and towards making their own versions.

** Despite Russia not mentioning a specified timeframe in its public declarations, Ukraine would announce soon afterward that it had captured purported secret Russian plans dated January 18th, describing an operation to take over Ukraine that was supposed to last 15 days, from February 20 to March 6. The execution of the Russian invasion supports the idea of a short campaign: it included elite paratroopers dropping in to capture airports, motorized troops racing ahead of their supply lines to capture objectives, and a caravan of armored vehicles attempting to drive straight into the capital city of Kyiv. Russia probably thought their DecapitationStrike would topple the Ukrainian government within three days or so, and that the rest would just be mopping up. They were so certain of their quick victory that they allegedly brought along parade uniforms for a victorious march through Kyiv's main Khreshchatyk Street, with awards for the "special military operation" already pinned to them.

* On February 24, 2022, President UsefulNotes/VladimirPutin of the [[UsefulNotes/{{Russia}} Russian Federation]] announced a "[[InsistentTerminology Special Military Operation]]" in UsefulNotes/{{Ukraine}}, which was immediately followed by [[UsefulNotes/RussiansWithRustingRockets Russian armed forces]] invading Ukraine simultaneously from the north, south, and east. Russia planned to militarily depose the pro-European Ukrainian government; install a pro-Kremlin government in its place; disarm the country and keep it out of NATO; ensure the "independence" of the Russia-aligned Donetsk and Luhansk separatist states in the Donbas; and tighten its control over Crimea. This "Special Military Operation" was supposed to be a walkover, but turned into a grinding war of attrition.
** Despite Russia not mentioning a specified timeframe in its public declarations, Ukraine would soon announce its capture of purported secret Russian plans dated January 18th, describing an operation to take over Ukraine that was supposed to last 15 days from February 20 to March 6. The execution of Russia's invasion certainly implies they thought it would be a lightning-fast CurbStompBattle: it included elite paratroopers dropping in to capture airports, motorized troops racing ahead of their supply lines to capture territory, and a caravan of armored vehicles attempting to drive straight into the capital city of Kyiv. Russia probably thought their DecapitationStrike would topple the Ukrainian government within three days or so, and the rest would just be mopping up. They were so certain of their quick victory that they supposedly brought along parade uniforms for a victorious march through Kyiv's main Khreshchatyk Street, with awards for the "special military operation" already pinned to them.
** At a glance, the Russian armed forces seemed to have the advantage with a larger defense budget, more modern equipment and a network of military bases and rail routes surrounding Ukraine on three sides. They had many times the number of fighter planes, a navy that could assist in assaulting the south, and various high-tech toys which they implied could be around the corner such as hypersonic missiles and the T-14 Armata tank. Putin and his advisers believed their own propaganda about Ukraine being a backwoods country with an inept government and citizens who are either unwilling to defend it or even willing to collaborate with the invasion, particularly in the East. Lastly, the war planners believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, and that in any case the invasion would be wrapped up before any serious sanctions hit.

** The main ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), weak supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), unsecured communications that let the Ukrainians spy on everything they were doing, and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics such as close air support or infantry screening for tanks. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). The Russians were also hampered by the weather as the melting snow turned the passable fields of Ukraine into mud that bogged down Russian vehicles. Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Subsequently, while both sides took heavy losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its weapons with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions. Although Russia was able to stabilize its economy somewhat, the sanctions prevented the import of replacement equipment like new thermal cameras and sensors, forcing Russia to divert time and resources away from the front lines and towards making their own versions.

** The main ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), weak supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), unsecured communications that let the Ukrainians spy on everything they were doing, and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics such as close air support or infantry screening for tanks. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). The Russians were also hampered by the weather as the melting snow turned the passable fields of Ukraine into mud that bogged down Russian vehicles. Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Subsequently, while both sides took heavy losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its weapons with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions. Although Russia was able to stabilize its economy somewhat, the sanctions prevented the import of material to replace destroyed equipment.

** The main ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), weak supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), unsecured communications that let the Ukrainians spy on everything they were doing, and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics such as close air support or infantry screening for tanks. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). The Russians were also hampered by the weather as the melting snow turned the passable fields of Ukraine into mud that bogged down Russian vehicles. Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Subsequently, while both sides took heavy equipment losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its weapons with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions. Although Russia was able to stabilize its economy somewhat, the sanctions prevented the import of material to replace destroyed equipment.
** After a month of fighting, Russian forces abandoned their original goal of capturing Kyiv as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were instead redeployed to Eastern Ukraine to seize the region and subsequently claim a face-saving victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive went so badly that Ukrainians were able to retake major cities like Kharkiv and inflict heavy losses on Russian force (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets that resulted in an entire Russian battalion tactical group of over 400 soldiers). Subsequently, pro-war bloggers and pundits in Russia began doubting the war effort and publicly criticizing the Kremlin leadership.
** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While Russia would've faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly at least then they would only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war with NATO countries giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens. The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

** The main ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), weak supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), unsecured communications that let the Ukrainians spy on everything they were doing, and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics such as close air support or infantry screening for tanks. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Subsequently, while both sides took heavy equipment losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its weapons with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions. Although Russia was able to stabilize its economy somewhat, the sanctions prevented the import of microchips and special alloys needed to replace destroyed equipment.
** After a month of fighting, Russian forces failed to capture Kiev as they were too thinly spread throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russian forces were redeployed to Eastern Ukraine in an attempt to seize the region and thereby claim victory. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization. In fact, Russia's eastern offensive went so badly that Ukrainians were able to retake major cities like Kharkiv and inflict heavy losses on Russian force (most notably at Battle of Siverskyi Donets, in which an entire Russian battalion tactical group was wiped out in a failed river crossing). Subsequently, pro-war bloggers and pundits in Russia began doubting the war effort and publicly criticizing the Kremlin leadership.
** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Russia would have faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, but at least then they would have only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war. NATO countries, who were originally reluctant to arm Ukraine, are now giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens or escalating to the point of nuclear war (probably). The war revitalized instead of curbing NATO, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join the alliance. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

** However, the invasion started to unravel before it even properly began. US intelligence cut through Russian obfuscation and determined they were about to invade, allowing US President Biden to sound the alarm and causing the Russians to delay the invasion by four days. When the invasion did begin in proper, it wasn't the awe-inspiring success that many expected. The initial Russian missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers, SAM sites, and fighter locations, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to put together a real defense. The Russians were unable to make their precision guided munitions work properly, and their Air Force was not experienced in suppressing enemy air defense, preventing them from establishing air superiority. Meanwhile, paratroopers and mechanized forces spearheading the assault failed to secure forward bases and key infrastructure needed to springboard further offensives. Russia was caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight, especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government remained in Kyiv instead of fleeing, providing a major morale boost for the country. Even those who had been expected to collaborate turned against Russia.
** The main ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), weak supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), unsecured communications that let the Ukrainians spy on everything they were doing, and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics such as close air support or infantry screening for tanks. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Subsequently, while both sides took heavy equipment losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its weapons with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions; while Russia was able to stabilize its economy somewhat, the sanctions prevented the nation from importing microchips and special alloys needed to replace destroyed equipment.
** After a month of fighting, Russia failed to capture Kiev as they had spread themselves too thin throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. Russia subsequently redeployed their forces to focus on Eastern Ukraine in an attempt to gain a smaller but more achievable win to save face. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of military success or mass mobilization.
** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Russia would have faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, but at least then they would have only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war. NATO countries, who were originally reluctant to arm Ukraine, are now giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens or escalating to the point of nuclear war (probably). The war has revitalized NATO instead of curbing it, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join NATO. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Russia would have faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, but at least then they would have only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war. NATO, which was originally reluctant to arm Ukraine, are now giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens or escalating to the point of nuclear war (probably). The war has revitalized NATO instead of curbing it, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join NATO. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Russia would have faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, but at least then they would have only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, the conflict turned into a proxy war. NATO, which was originally reluctant to arm Ukraine, are now giving the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens or escalating to the point of nuclear war (probably).
The war has revitalized NATO instead of curbing it, with Germany increasing its defense spending and formerly-nonaligned Finland and Sweden applying to join NATO. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing the country back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

* On February 24, 2022, President UsefulNotes/VladimirPutin of the [[UsefulNotes/{{Russia}} Russian Federation]] announced a "[[InsistentTerminology Special Military Operation]]" in UsefulNotes/{{Ukraine}}, which was immediately followed by [[UsefulNotes/RussiansWithRustingRockets Russian armed forces]] invading Ukraine simultaneously from the north, south, and east. Russia planned to militarily depose the pro-European Ukrainian government; install a pro-Kremlin government in its place; disarm the country and keep it out of NATO; ensure the "independence" of the Russia-aligned Donetsk and Luhansk separatist states in the Donbas; and ensure its control over Crimea. This "Special Military Operation" was supposed to be a walkover, but turned into a grinding war of attrition.

** At a glance, the Russian armed forces seemed to have the advantage with a larger defense budget, more modern equipment and a network of military bases and rail routes surrounding Ukraine on three sides. They had many times the number of fighter planes, a navy that could assist in assaulting the south, and various high-tech toys which they implied could be around the corner such as hypersonic missiles and the T-14 Armata tank. Putin and his advisers believed their own propaganda about Ukraine being a backwoods country with an inept government and citizens unwilling to defend it. They expected a lot of Ukrainians to collaborate with the invasion, particularly in the East. Lastly, the war planners believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, and that in any case the invasion would be wrapped up before any serious sanctions hit.
** However, the invasion started to unravel before it even properly began. US intelligence cut through Russian obfuscation and determined they were about to invade, allowing President Biden to sound the alarm and causing the Russians to delay the invasion by four days. The initial Russian missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers, SAM sites, and fighter locations, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to put together a real defense. The Russians were unable to make their precision guided munitions work properly because they had been cut off from GPS, and their Air Force was not experienced in suppressing enemy air defense, preventing them from establishing air superiority. Meanwhile, paratroopers and mechanized forces spearheading the assault failed to secure forward bases and key infrastructure needed to springboard further offensives. Russia was caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight, especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government remained in Kyiv instead of fleeing, providing a major morale boost for the country. Even those who had been expected to collaborate turned against Russia.
** The ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), weak supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), unsecured communications that let the Ukrainians spy on everything they were doing, and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics such as close air support or infantry screening for tanks. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers; subsequently, while both sides took heavy equipment losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its stocks with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions.
** Russia failed to capture Kiev after a month of trying, as they had spread themselves too thin throughout Ukraine and had nothing close to the local numerical superiority required to capture such a large city. They subsequently redeployed their forces to focus on Eastern Ukraine in an attempt to salvage something. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east, and Putin's speech on May 9 did not include any announcement of mass mobilization.
** What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Russia would have faced some negative consequences even if they had won quickly, but at least then they would have only needed to fight the Ukrainians. Instead, it’s turned into a proxy war. Before this NATO had the weapons but not the willingness to use them, while Ukraine was willing to fight but didn’t have the weapons. Now the Western countries can give the Ukrainians as much war material as they want, indirectly killing and destroying Russian power without having to risk their own citizens or escalating to the point of nuclear war (probably). The war has revitalized NATO instead of curbing it, with Germany committed to increased defense spending and heretofore-nonaligned Finland and Sweden seriously considering joining NATO. And of course, Putin has only strengthened Ukrainian nationalism and hatred for Russia instead of bringing it back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In summary, Russia’s larger war goals are permanently lost regardless of what happens on the battlefield from now on.

** However, the invasion started to unravel before it even properly began. US intelligence cut through Russian obfuscation and determined they were about to invade, allowing President Biden to sound the alarm and causing the Russians to delay the invasion by four days. The initial Russian missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers, SAM sites, and fighter locations, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to put together a real defense. The Russians were unable to make their precision guided munitions work properly because they had been cut off from GPS, and their Air Force was not experienced in suppressing enemy air defense, preventing them from establishing air superiority. Meanwhile, paratroopers and mechanized forces spearheading the assault failed to secure forward bases and key infrastructure needed to springboard further offensives. Russia was caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight, especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government remained in Kyiv instead of fleeing, providing a major morale boost for the country. Even those who had been expected to collaborate turned against Russia. The ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), weak supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), unsecured communications that let the Ukrainians spy on everything they were doing, and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics such as close air support or infantry screening for tanks. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers; subsequently, while both sides took heavy equipment losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its stocks with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions.

* On February 24, 2022, President UsefulNotes/VladimirPutin of the [[UsefulNotes/{{Russia}} Russian Federation]] announced a "[[InsistentTerminology Special Military Operation]]" in UsefulNotes/{{Ukraine}}, which was immediately followed by [[UsefulNotes/RussiansWithRustingRockets Russian armed forces]] invading Ukraine on multiple fronts. Russia planned to militarily depose the Ukrainian government, disarm the nation, and install a pro-Kremlin government that would ensure the Russian-speaking Donbas and Crimea regions would stay under Russian control. This "Special Military Operation" was supposed to last no more than a week only to be dragged on for over two months.
** Despite the lack of a publicly specified timeframe, the design of the Russian invasion plan--which involved high-risk maneuvers such as elite paratroopers dropping in to capture airports and an armored column driving straight into the capital city of Kyiv--heavily implies that Russian leadership expected to pull a DecapitationStrike that would topple the Ukrainian government within three days or so. At a glance, the Russian armed forces seemed to have the advantage with a larger defense budget, more modern equipment and a network of military bases and rail routes surrounding Ukraine on three sides. Putin and his advisers also believed their own propaganda about Ukraine being a backwoods country with an inept government and citizens unwilling to defend it. The war planners also believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, and that in any case the invasion would be wrapped up before any serious sanctions hit. Since Putin kept denying up until the last minute that he was going to launch an invasion, Russian businesses did not have time to set up alternative suppliers and customers in case of sanctions, further implying that Putin thought it was going to be over quickly.
** However, the invasion quickly unravelled from the start. The initial missile strikes and airstrikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers and bases, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to coordinate their defense. Likewise, paratroopers and mechanized forces spearheading the assault failed to secure forward bases and key infrastructure needed to springboard further offensives. Russia was also caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government remained in Kyiv instead of fleeing, providing a major morale boost for the country. The ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), inadequate supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), lack of secure communications and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers; subsequently, while both sides took heavy equipment losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its stocks with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions. Although events are still developing, it's safe to say that Putin did not get the cakewalk he was expecting, and if anything Russian diplomatic influence and military prestige have already been downgraded by their failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine. What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War and the 2003 Iraq War.
** The Russians were so certain of their quick victory that they brought along parade uniforms for a victorious march through Kyiv's main Khreshchatyk Street, with awards for the "special military operation" already pinned to them.
** Once it became clear that they were not going to take Kyiv, the Russians redeployed their forces to focus on Eastern Ukraine. Intelligence soon suggested that Putin would try to gain a decisive victory by May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. However, the Ukrainians quickly stalled the advance in the east.

** However, the invasion quickly unravelled from the start. The initial missile attacks and airstrikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers and bases, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to coordinate their defense. Likewise, paratroopers spearheading the assault failed to secure forward bases and capture key infrastructure points. Russia was also caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government chose to remain in Kyiv rather than flee, providing a major morale boost for the country. The ground invasion became plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), inadequate supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), lack of secure communications and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics. Most telling, Russian troops were severely demoralized by the poor logistics, lack of early successes, heavy casualties, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war). With the advance to Kyiv stalled by the end of March, the Russian military shifted attention to Ukraine's eastern and southern regions, allowing Ukrainians to recapture northern areas in counterattacks. Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers; subsequently, while both sides took heavy equipment losses, Ukraine was able to replenish its stocks with Western aid while Russia couldn't because of the sanctions. Although events are still developing, it's safe to say that Putin did not get the cakewalk he was expecting, and if anything Russian diplomatic influence and military prestige have already been downgraded by their failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine. What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War and the 2003 Iraq War.

** Despite the lack of a publicly specified timeframe, the design of the Russian invasion plan--which involved high-risk maneuvers such as elite paratroopers dropping in to capture airports and an armored column driving straight into the capitol city of Kyiv--heavily implies that Russian leadership expected to pull a DecapitationStrike that would topple the Ukrainian government within three days or so. At a glance, the Russian armed forces seemed to have the advantage with a larger defense budget, more modern equipment and a network of military bases and rail routes surrounding Ukraine on three sides. Putin and his advisers also believed their own propaganda about Ukraine being a backwoods country with an inept government and citizens unwilling to defend it. The war planners also believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, and that in any case the invasion would be wrapped up before any serious sanctions hit. Since Putin kept denying up until the last minute that he was going to launch an invasion, Russian businesses did not have time to set up alternative suppliers and customers in case of sanctions, further implying that Putin thought it was going to be over quickly.

** Despite the lack of a publicly specified timeframe, the design of the Russian invasion plan--which involved high-risk maneuvers such as elite paratroopers dropping in to capture airports and an armored column driving straight into Kyiv--heavily implies that Russian leadership expected to pull a DecapitationStrike that would topple the Ukrainian government within three days or so. At a glance, the Russian armed forces seemed to have the advantage with a larger defense budget, more modern equipment and a network of military bases and rail routes surrounding Ukraine on three sides. Putin and his advisers also believed their own propaganda about Ukraine being a backwoods country with an inept government and citizens unwilling to defend it. The war planners also believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, and that in any case the invasion would be wrapped up before any serious sanctions hit. Since Putin kept denying up until the last minute that he was going to launch an invasion, Russian businesses did not have time to set up alternative suppliers and customers in case of sanctions, further implying that Putin thought it was going to be over quickly.
** However, the plan quickly unravelled from the start. The initial missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers and bases, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to coordinate their defense. The initial Russian assault suffered high casualty rates among paratroopers and failed to establish air superiority. Russia was also caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government chose to remain in Kyiv rather than flee, providing a major morale boost for the country. The ground invasion has been plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin missile most famously), inadequate supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, artillery and drones), lack of secure communications and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics. Most telling, many Russian ground troops suffered from low morale as they were undercut by the poor logistics, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war), leading to desertion and sabotage. With the advance to Kyiv stalled by the end of March, the Russian military shifted attention to Ukraine's eastern and southern regions, allowing Ukrainians to recapture northern areas in counterattacks. Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers; the economic sanctions proved particularly devastating for Russia as they prevented the nation from importing components like microchips that are needed for replenishing weapon stocks. Although events are still developing, it's safe to say that Putin did not get the cakewalk he was expecting, and if anything Russian diplomatic influence and military prestige have already been downgraded by their failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine. What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War and the 2003 Iraq War.

** Despite the lack of a publicly specified timeframe, the design of the Russian invasion plan--which involved high-risk maneuvers such as elite paratroopers dropping in to capture airports and an armored column driving straight into Kyiv--heavily implies that Russian leadership expected to pull a DecapitationStrike that would topple the Ukrainian government within three days or so. Militarily, Russian armed forces seemed to have the advantage with a larger defense budget, more equipment and a network of military bases and rail routes surrounding Ukraine on three sides. Putin and his advisers also believed their own propaganda about Ukraine being a backwoods country with an inept government and citizens unwilling to defend it. Finally, the war planners believed that the bickering Europeans and Americans would fail to form a united front against them, and that in any case the invasion would be wrapped up before any serious sanctions hit. Since Putin kept denying up until the last minute that he was going to launch an invasion, Russian businesses did not have time to set up alternative suppliers and customers in case of sanctions, further implying that Putin thought it was going to be over quickly.
** However, the plan quickly unravelled from the get-go. The initial missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers and bases, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to coordinate their defense. The initial Russian assault suffered high casualty rates among paratroopers and failed to establish air superiority. Russia was also caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government chose to remain in Kyiv rather than flee, providing a major morale boost for the country. The ground invasion has been plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin most famously), inadequate supply lines that resulted in tanks running out of fuel, poor tactics that left formations vulnerable to ambushes (most infamously the 40-mile long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, Ukrainian artillery and Ukrainian-owned Turkish drones), lack of secure communications and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics. Most telling, many Russian ground troops suffered from low morale as they were undercut by the poor logistics, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war), leading to desertion and sabotage. With the advance to Kyiv stalled by the end of March, the Russian military shifted attention to Ukraine's eastern and southern regions, allowing Ukrainians to recapture northern areas in counterattacks. Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Although events are still developing, it's safe to say that Putin did not get the cakewalk he was expecting, and if anything Russian diplomatic influence and military prestige have already been downgraded by their failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine. What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War and the 2003 Iraq War.

** However, the plan quickly unravelled from the get-go. The initial missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers and bases, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to coordinate their defense. The initial Russian assault suffered high casualty rates among paratroopers and failed to establish air superiority. Russia was also caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government chose to remain in Kyiv rather than flee, providing a major morale boost for the country. The ground invasion has been plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin most famously), supply lines with inadequate capacity (the infamous 40 miles long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, Ukrainian artillery and Ukrainian-owned Turkish drones), lack of secure communications and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics. Most telling, many Russian ground troops suffered from low morale as they were undercut by the poor logistics, mistaken expectations to be welcomed as "liberators" and lack of direction (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war), leading to desertion and sabotage. With the advance to Kyiv stalled by the end of March, the Russian military shifted attention to Ukraine's eastern and southern regions, allowing Ukrainians to recapture northern areas in counterattacks. Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Although events are still developing, it's safe to say that Putin did not get the cakewalk he was expecting, and if anything Russian diplomatic influence and military prestige have already been downgraded by their failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine. What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War and the 2003 Iraq War.

* In March 2020, just as the [[UsefulNotes/COVID19Pandemic COVID-19 outbreak]] was turning into a global pandemic, some claimed that it would be over within a month and wouldn't be any more dangerous than the seasonal flu...nearly two years, it's still ongoing with over 479 million cases and 6.1 million deaths.

* The ''TabletopGame/{{BattleTech}}'' universe certainly has seen its share of this trope. Two large-scale examples -- smaller ones abound, but these are really just perhaps the two biggest ones in the entire history of the setting -- would be the Reunification War (as initially viewed by the newly-minted Star League) and the Clan invasion of the Inner Sphere (from the original point of view of the Clans); needless to say, neither actually worked out that way.

** However, the plan quickly unravelled from the get-go. The initial missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers and bases, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to coordinate their defense. The initial Russian assault suffered high casualty rates among paratroopers and failed to establish air superiority. Russia was also caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government chose to remain in Kyiv rather than flee, providing a major morale boost for the country. The ground invasion has been plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin most famously), supply lines with inadequate capacity (the infamous 40 miles long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} that got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams, Ukrainian artillery and Ukrainian-owned Turkish drones), lack of secure communications and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics. Most telling, many Russian ground troops suffered from low morale as they were undercut by the poor logistics, mistakenly expected to be welcomed as "liberators" (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war), leading to desertion and sabotage. With the advance to Kyiv stalled by the end of March, the Russian military shifted attention to Ukraine's eastern and southern regions, allowing Ukrainians to recapture northern areas in counterattacks. Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Although events are still developing, it's safe to say that Putin did not get the cakewalk he was expecting, and if anything Russian diplomatic influence and military prestige have already been downgraded by their failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine. What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War and the 2003 Iraq War.

** However, the plan quickly unravelled from the get-go. The initial missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers and bases, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to coordinate their defense. The initial Russian assault suffered high casualty rates among paratroopers and failed to establish air superiority. Russia was also caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government chose to remain in Kyiv rather than flee, providing a major morale boost for the country. The ground invasion has been plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin most famously), supply lines with inadequate capacity (the infamous 40 miles long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} that got completely bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams and artillery), lack of secure communications and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics. Most telling, many Russian ground troops suffered from low morale as they were undercut by the poor logistics, mistakenly expected to be welcomed as "liberators" (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war), leading to desertion and sabotage. With the advance to Kyiv stalled by the end of March, the Russian military shifted attention to Ukraine's eastern and southern regions, allowing Ukrainians to recapture northern areas in counterattacks. Furthermore, Ukraine's success in saving Kyiv convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Although events are still developing, it's safe to say that Putin did not get the cakewalk he was expecting, and if anything Russian diplomatic influence and military prestige have already been downgraded by their failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine. What was expected to be a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous 1939-1940 Winter War and the 2003 Iraq War.

----

** However, the plan quickly unravelled from the get-go. The initial missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers and bases, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to coordinate their defense. The initial Russian assault suffered high casualty rates among paratroopers and failed to establish air superiority. Russia was also caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government chose to remain in Kyiv rather than flee, providing a major morale boost for the country. The ground invasion has been plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces (who were equipped with state-of-the-art modern western AntiArmor portable weapons, the Javelin most famously), supply lines with inadequate capacity (the infamous 40 miles long convoy descending from UsefulNotes/{{Belarus}} that got bogged down with nonstop strikes by mobile Ukrainian teams and artillery), lack of secure communications and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics. Most telling, many Russian ground troops suffered from low morale as they were undercut by the poor logistics, mistakenly expected to be welcomed as "liberators" (some even had ''no idea'' they were waging a war), leading to desertion and sabotage. With the advance to Kyiv stalled by the end of March, the Russian military shifted attention to Ukraine's eastern and southern regions, allowing Ukrainians to recapture northern areas in counterattacks. Furthermore, Ukraine's success convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Although events are still developing, it's safe to say that Putin did not get the cakewalk he was expecting, and if anything Russian diplomatic influence and military prestige have already been downgraded by their failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine. What should've been a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous Winter War and 2003 Iraq War.
** The Russians were so certain of their quick victory that they brought along their parade uniforms for a victorious march through Kyiv's main Khreshchatyk Street, with awards for the "special military operation" already pinned to them.

* Inverted during the Gulf War. General Colin Powell famously told the press that the war wasn't going to be a one day affair and "it's not going to be over by the next commercial break." This was colored by the American experience in Vietnam, a very long, costly, and bloody war. However, once US troops went in, the war actually ended up lasting just four days.

* On February 24, 2022, President Vladimir Putin of Russia announced a "[[InsistentTerminology Special Military Operation]]" in Ukraine, which was immediately followed by Russian armed forces invading Ukraine on multiple fronts. Russia planned to militarily depose the Ukrainian government, disarm the nation, and install a pro-Kremlin government that would ensure the Russian-speaking Donbas and Crimea regions would stay under Russian control. This "Special Military Operation" was supposed to last no more than a week only to be dragged on for over a month.

** However, the plan quickly unravelled from the get-go. The initial missile and air strikes failed to disable key Ukrainian infrastructure such as power plants, cell towers and bases, squandering the element of surprise and allowing the Ukrainians to coordinate their defense. The initial Russian assault suffered high casualty rates among paratroopers and failed to establish air superiority. Russia was also caught off-guard by the Ukrainian people's will to fight especially since President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and much of his government chose to remain in Kyiv rather than flee, providing a major morale boost for the country. The ground invasion has been plagued by fierce resistance from Ukrainian regular and irregular forces, supply lines which have inadequate capacity, lack of secure communications and the inability to implement proper combined arms tactics. Most telling, the Russian ground troops suffered from low morale as they were undercut by the poor logistics, mistakenly expected to be welcomed as liberators and had ''no idea'' they were waging a war, leading to desertion and sabotage. With the advance to Kyiv stalled by the end of March, the Russian military shifted attention to Ukraine's eastern and southern regions, allowing Ukrainians to recapture areas in counterattacks. Furthermore, Ukraine's success convinced the West to unite quickly for enacting sanctions against Russia and arming Ukrainian soldiers. Although events are still developing, it's safe to say that Putin did not get the cakewalk he was expecting, and if anything Russian diplomatic influence and military prestige have already been downgraded by their failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine. What should've been a quick victory to demonstrate Russian might turned into a quagmire akin to the disastrous Winter War and 2003 Iraq War.