When They Cry - Higurashi and Umineko

That last post was thoroughly tongue in cheek. Although if Ganon was truly the killer, it would be awesome. And unexpected.

No, I've only just begun episode 4. They mentioned it fairly early on — Kyrie raised it in the sibling conference, and then Battler and Beatrice discussed it in the meta world.

edited 29th May '12 3:30:38 AM by BokhuraBurnes

Hmm, anyone seen this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zlyqr5nbw74&feature=player_embedded

It's an alternate theory for the Logic Error in EP 6 It's mostly just played for a joke, but thanks to some clever wordplay, it's totally valid as well.

Worth a watch, if you've got some time to kill.

((Obviously, don't go near this Bokhura))

I suspect that 1. The Shkannon theory is false, and 2, like Higurashi, there's a "Culprit Prime" (primary killer), "Culprit Beta" (the secondary killer), and only 1 accomplice (in Higurashi's case it was more like an enabler since you can directly and indirectly trace Onryu's actions to the worsening of situations in most story arcs and 2 of the 4 background story murders).

1. The Shkanon theory runs conflict to multiple red truths. a. Battler's sin is not against Beatrice (impossible if she is Shannon as well), b. Besides Erika there are 17 people. This number is the same as in previous games, c. People are defined as bodies. (rules out alternate personas since personas are the kind of thing that share a body), d. It is forbidden for a servant to be the culprit (episode 7).

Looking at the logic error puzzle. There is a mundane solution. Hint: It involves the fact that there is a third room. Sealing the window would require Erika to use that 3rd room to access the windows in the 1st and second room.

IIRC, episode 7 is mainly from the magical/subjective perspective. The viewer can only truly trust red truth and what Island Battler sees as being from the objective perspective. That means that Yasu doesn't exist literately. However that means that she CAN be interpreted symbolically. What does Yasu symbolize? A hint to that was already given in the question arcs.

Then there's the whole issue with Island Beatrice. (Episode 2) The tatoo on her and Shannon are on opposite legs, meaning that it is physically impossible for Island Beatrice and Shannon to be the same person. I believe however, that Island Beatrice is still a MAJOR clue as to the identity of "Culprit Prime".

2. Who is "Culprit Prime"? To avoid leaked internet spoilers, I won't say. I will however say this: It explains.....quite a lot actually, including what Yasu symbolizes, why Twilight casualties happen the way they do, and the signigicance of Island Beatrice. The identity or "Culprit Beta"? Game 3 is what you need to solve this one. Speaking of game 3, it is my opinion that Eva actually DOES kill people in that game, but she is NOT "culprit beta". Her motive is likely vigilante action in an attempt to stop the murders (the people she does suspect are completely innocent however).

Edit: Hopefully I got everything this time. Seems that spoiler tags seem to get negated by colored text (possible site bug?), so I had to use an alternative system to mark the red truths.

edited 30th May '12 6:44:48 PM by magnum12

You might want to spoiler some of that.

You need to spoiler tag everything that isn't past Episode 4. Also, color markup on the forums is [[colorname:text]].

Dude, spoiler everything.

You missed some stuff. The tattoo bit, the alternate personas, people being defined as bodies, Battler's sin and Erika's bit.

Huh, I didn't know red text showed up even inside a spoiler. Unintentionally, the truth is always revealed.

edited 30th May '12 6:39:28 PM by Crinias

It is an interesting theory you have there. However, one thing you overlooked when you stated your red truths was that it has never been stated that there are 17 people when Erika is not on the island.

The Umineko wiki lists all red truths, and it is only said that Erika increases the number of people on the island by one.

1. Furudo Erika had no influence on any of Beato's games before now.
2. She does not exist in the worlds before this one, nor does she influence them.
3. Furudo Erika only increases it by one person.
4. Besides her, the number of people on this island is exactly the same as it was in the previous games.

As for the other truths... about the one that says servants could be culprits, you could make the case that Shannon/Yasu/Beatrice is not just a servant, but a member of the family. Another argument is that that truth is simply a statement of one of Van Dine's Commandments, of which there is no guarantee applies to Umineko, same as Knox's Commandments.

I would argue that even if multiple personas occupy a single body, the amount of bodies and thus people does not increase. Furthermore, we have been duly prepared for this particular twist. The cousins talking about how Maria might have a split personality, Battler trying to argue with Eva-Beatrice that Jessica has an alternate personality in Episode 3 (Eva replied that Jessica was blindfolded and could not have killed anyone, but she didn't deny the possibility that someone could have multiple personalities.

As for Battler's sin, we can simply say that the multiple personalities allow a loophole for this.

As for Island!Beatrice in Episode 2, it is mentioned at a point in the narrative that Beatrice loathes mirrors. And as you yourself said, she and Shannon have the tattoo in opposite legs, or at least that's how they would be if Shannon looked at a mirror. Since Battler himself never saw Beatrice with his own eyes, we cannot claim with certainty that the tattoo is on the opposite leg.

Did I miss anything?

edited 30th May '12 7:46:50 PM by Crinias

A lot of people don't seem to realize that Will didn't say this in red during the game proper; he was talking about that maid in the prologue. Bernkastel also implies at the end of the Episode 7 Tea Party that most of Van Dine's rules don't apply to the Umineko game board.

As for Culprit Prime and Culprit Beta, I'm inclined to agree with this. Episode 8 seems to imply that the Episode 7 Tea Party is the closest to the actual truth of the Rokkenjima incident.

I wouldn't say that the Shkanon theory is false, just that as it stands, it's mostly irrelevant to who actually committed the murders on the island. Shkanontrice probably just set herself up as a scapegoat.

I think you might of missed The Logic Error Puzzle. My blue truth to that is "Kanon escaped via the window of the second room during Erika's transistion to the 3rd room. This 3rd room is required to access the windows in order to seal them."

Some more arguments regarding disproving that theory. The seemingly conflicting red truths near the end of episode 6 between Erika and Battler. They are not in conflict, they are counter factuals based on alternate timelines. This is an idea much like one of the core plot elements in Higurashi if you assume that the Cotton Drifting and Atonement chapters are alternate timeline esque counter factuals. Now for my blue truth regarding it. "Battler was not refering to Shkannon with his red truth, but to Erika."

If memory serves correctly, Island Battler did see Island Beatrice near the end of episode 4. Through Island Beatrice, we see that the tatoo is on the front of Island Beatrice's right leg.

To my point regarding Culprit Prime who I am absolutely certain is female, I suspect with my blue truth that "Culprit Prime's connection to Island Beatrice is that of a disguise." Looking at Island Beatrice's hair style gives me reason to believe that a disguise involving one's normal hair cut is both easier and more convincing than a wig.

My analysis of the second twilight of the 3rd game: Okay I'm using the anime as my guide on this one, but based on the hand print on Maria's neck, it is my opinion that since the hand print looks like a male hand rather than a female hand, Culprit Beta is male.

To be honest, I was never fooled as to Bernkastel's true colors. For me, that dead, lifeless look in those eyes was an immediate trigger for my Detect Evil sense.

Changing gears to Higurashi, I had it figured out that Takano was the bad guy by the Atonement chapter. To be honest, I was brought into the series via the anime and I was using that while trying to solve the mystery. My reasons for suspecting so were as follows:

1. Just by looking at her, let's just say my Detect Evil sense was lighting up like the 4th of July. My instincts were telling me that there was something fundamentally wrong with her. 2. Figuring out in the Cotton Drifting chapter that Takano's death is fake. Why would you do something like that? 3. More hints come in the Eye Opening and Atonement chapters as it seems that Takano seems to be a prime cause of the cast going insane by giving them well placed words and items that sow the seeds of doubt and mistrust. As seen in the Atonement chapters, the white vans seem to be involved in the descent into madness by feeding on their fears. This also means that via the vans and words, Takano was also a cause of Keiichi going nuts as well via being The Corruptor.

I figured out pretty quickly that Shion was the killer in the Cotton Drifting chapter. The repeating question is the first suspicious act. The smoking gun however was the seemingly out of nowhere psycho rant about Satoshi. My suspicions were confirmed by Ooishi's revelations about which body was in the well. The Genre Savy part of me sensed that the identical twins that are very difficult to tell apart plot point was going to be VERY important to the mystery. Having closely known a set of identical twins for years, I can tell you that the way to identify them is through the subtile differences.

edited 30th May '12 10:21:46 PM by magnum12

There is an awful lot of evidence pointing to Schkannon, even if most of it requires 2 or even 3 re-reads to catch. If you've got some time, read up on http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost.php?p=4117105&postcount=28509 , which lays out of a lot of interesting reasoning, and collects a ton of seemingly meaningless quotes from the narrative that all come together to form strong foreshadowing.

I know schkannon is disliked by a lot of people, and I can see what you're trying to get at here. Certainly, Umineko presents a theme of finding a personal answer that works for you. But in my case, I can't accept a theory that disregards so much of the narrative, and one that completely ignores the heart.

Just in case anyone was worried, I didn't get spoilered by any of the above. (Whew!) Once again, please use spoiler tags generously — I've managed to avoid spoilers so far, and I want to keep doing so.

Haven't had much to add, mainly because I'm wondering where the plot went. Do we really need this long of a digression about how Ange can summon the Seven Stakes of Purgatory?

Ange's parts are really boring tbh. Personally, I skipped a lot of it, picking up like a few words here and there. Not terribly important.

While I most certainly agree that the talk about split personalities is most certainly a clue, I disagree as to what its a clue about. I shall create a blue truth as to why. I don't think this is a spoiler as it doesn't leak any plot points. Rather, it is an opinion based on certain evidence readily availible pre-episode 4.

It is extremely unlikely that Maria is "Culprit Prime", "Culprit Beta", or an accomplice. However, I suspect that she is an important clue to the mystery.

If it was her, the primary indicator of her guilt would be simple weapons trajectory, unless she was smart enough to devise a way to mask that. I find it doubtful that a small child would think that far in advance.

There are a lot of commonalities to certain events in the first 4 episodes, many of them relating to Maria. Therefore, it is highly plausable that the common elements are a clue as to the identity of either "Culprit Prime" or "Culprit Beta".

"Culprit Prime" or "Culprit Beta". One of them likely has Split Personality Disorder. This would explain certain conflicting tropes regarding one of the culprits if they are guilty.

Certain events in episode 4 raised a major "red flag" in my mind. One that relates to a possible motive for the other culprit. This leads me to another blue truth, another one based on opionion derived from said events.

"Culprit Prime" or "Culprit Beta". The other is possibly a closet Yandere.

Upon paying attention to some of the narrative and background stories, I believe I can present a theory as to the symbolic meaning of Gaap. She is potentially a clue as to the identity of one of the culprits.

Gaap is a Meaningful Name.

Some more things on why I believe the Shkannon theory is false. This involves a lot of "chess board flipping" to ascertain the truth.

Ryukishi 07 is a Trolling Creator.

We all know its true and wouldn't nearly have as much fun with When They Cry if he wasn't. Misinformation and misdirection (doesn't even have to be lies either) are common tactics for a Trolling Creator. Given he also loves the Mind Screw, I have strong reason to suspect that the Shkannon Theory is an elaborate troll tactic designed to distract the fans from the identity of the culprits. This leads me to another red truth based on the transcripts of an author interview I read.

Ryukishi 07 was fully intent on creating an elaborate trap for the viewers in the Core Arcs. He expected most of the fans to fall for it. This trap is designed with misdirection in mind.

Based on that, I suspect that the objective of the trap, which I highly suspect involves how one interprets red truths, Yasu, and the Logic Error Puzzle. I believe that the end result of this masterfully crafted trap is infact the Shkannon theory.

Edit: Being paranoid about the latest edit. I don't think its a spoiler but I'm not sure.

edited 1st Jun '12 4:40:48 PM by magnum12

Alright, I'll bite.

How do you explain the linked closed rooms in the third game? How do you explain Dr. Nanjo's murder in the third game? Both your culprit prime and beta were confirmed dead by Battler at that point. Your culprits might have possible motive for murder, but where's the motive for the illusion of the witch? Why set up elaborate closed rooms? Why bother challenging anyone to solve the epitaph, to set up a clear challenge for someone to solve it.

Knox's 8th: It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented. Can you show how your supposed culprits would have the motive, resources, and necessary premeditation to commit the grisly and complicated murders of the witch's gameboard?

For that matter, your theory for the logic error is flimsy at best. There's no clues or indication of a third room being present. Furthermore, you've failed to address how Kanon disappeared from the closet in the end.

Regarding the logic error, I shall use a Devil's Proof and turn it into another question. Since the seals were also applied to the window, assuming that NO magic was involved, how did Erika apply the seal to the window? Unless there was an accomplice involved, the seals on the windows would require Erkia to go outside and apply them herself. Therefore, if Erika had to go outside to apply the seals, one cannot disprove the notion of Kanon using that transistion time to escape.

As per how the first twilight in episode 3 was done, didn't Battler solve this in the end of Episode 4? I'll get to those other points at a later time, after gathering my evidence together. This post shall be edited when I am done.

Regarding my tatoo theory, it seems that had stronger evidence in favor of it than I thought. Using the assumption that Island Battler's perspective is trustworthy, Shannon clearly has a tatoo on the front of her left leg (episode 1). Also from Island Battler's perspective, Island Beatrice has the tatoo on the front side of her right leg. Since both incidents were from Island Battler's perspective and thus trustworthy, mirrors are not involved in the explanation, and I can establish a blue truth based on it.

Since Shannon and Island Beatrice are cleary shown to have tatoos on the opposiste legs (front side on both occasions), it is impossible for them to be the same person.

Not quite.

The seals in episode 6 weren't literal, physical seals this time around. They were an implied agreement with the game-master. Battler allowed her to seal 3 rooms completely. Rather than her literally sticking duct tape over everything this time, he agrees that when Erika chooses the rooms, that nobody can enter or exit without leaving evidence behind.

Episode 6 generally works very differently from the rest of the games anyway. After all, the murderer is Erika.

It's true that Island!Battler's perspective is trustworthy during the first four arcs, but did he actually see Beatrice in Episode 2? For that matter, did he actually get to see Beatrice's tattoo in Episode 4? It was raining hard and who's to say he would look to something as trivial as her legs, when he was confronting her about everyone's deaths?

For that matter, has it ever been said those are real tattoos? Are they permanent? Nothing in red has been said about them. Could they be covered up in any way? After all, if someone can dress up as Beatrice convincingly, it's not too much of a stretch to say that someone could somehow cover it up and put another one in the opposite leg, is it?

As promised, here's the explanations regarding the third game and the witches epitaph.

1. I already explained my beliefs regarding the linked closed room, namely that Battler solved this one. A line of deaths done in such a way so that it appears to be a circle. This creates the illusion of the ring.

2. Regarding Dr. Nanjo's death in the 3rd game. I believe I cryptically hinted at my explanation in an earlier post. Hopefully I can word this blue truth so as to avoid spoilers (remember the bug? regarding colored text and spoiler marks).

Vigilante action is HIGHLY suspect in the third game. 2-3 deaths were possibly as the result of vigilantism. The motive was an intented attempt to stop the murders.

It is my opinion that Eva actually does kill people in that game, but she is not being malicious. She legitimately wants to protect people. She may have killed Dr. Nanjo after seeing that the murders were still happening (George's death). This leads me to a blue truth via chess board flipping.

Ryuukishi 07 has a very negative view of vigilante action. In his works, vigilate action NEVER ends well (including killing the wrong targets). Keiichi's motive in the Curse Killing and Exorcism (PS 2) chapters is vigilantism in an attempt to protect Satako. Both times, it doesn't end well as he goes insane. Using the third game, vigilante action ends up killing innocents instead of the culprit.

3. The witche's epitaph. I believe the motive to replicating this to be a simple case of elaborate smoke and mirrors and rather nasty confusion/misdirection tactics. Alternatively, we have this.

Culprit Prime or Culprit Beta, the motive for replicating the Witche's Epitaph may have been hinted at in Episode 3.

I've been trying to be vague on purpose so that people can figure out my meanings on their own, imitating the whole red and round riddle.

Now for the killing blow to the Shkannon theory, the very first twilight. Assuming that the perspective of Island Battler is trustworthy, we can assume this includes both his sight and his hearing. He obviously hears the conversation with George and his father. George is told that Shannon is dead, killed in a gruesome way. Kanon is there with his dad. I have 2 blue truths regarding this scenario.

1. George's father is NOT lying to George, nor do we have any reason to believe that he is lying. His motive for not allowing George to physically see the body is that he is simply trying to be a good father by sparing his son the worst elements of the trauma.

My instincts tell me that George's father is a good person, he can be trusted, and that he would not be the kind of person to be an accomplice to such a horrible crime. As such, I have reason to believe that he is NOT lying. This disproves the Shkanon theory because of something involving how multiple personalities works. When the body is dead, all personalities associated with that body are dead as well. If the body of Shkannon is dead, that means that Kanon would be dead as well. Kanon is not dead so this is not the case. As to how I believe this murder occured, this is my second blue truth.

The first twilight pulled a move straight out of Takano's play book. (Refer to Higurashi on what I mean.)

I suspect that this playbook (includes attempts to use it) is used multiple times in this series.

edited 2nd Jun '12 6:34:28 PM by magnum12

Red truths regarding 3rd game.

So committing a crime was impossible for her (referring to Eva)

Neither Eva nor Battler killed Nanjo, nor were they involved

The culprit who killed Nanjo was neither Battler nor Eva nor Jessica

No actions caused by Jessica's body had any relation to or influence on the murder of Nanjo. This also applies to Battler and Eva

Even if Hideyoshi isn't lying to George, he might be mistaken. A body double or something else. And there is no red truth saying he isn't lying and Battler hasn't seen the body so...

Even if you trust Hideyoshi's narrative by virtue of character, it's a fact that Battler never saw Shannon's corpse himself, which automatically makes it suspect. Knox's 9th: All observers are permitted to state their observations, however, there is no guarantee that these observations are absolute without the detective's authority.

Also, it looks like you haven't read the "Our Confessions" booklet. "Beatrice" can easily coerce any of the adults on the island into cooperating using the time bomb in the ingot room.

edited 2nd Jun '12 6:45:09 PM by LiberatedLiberater

Anyone know if the PS 3 patch is going to come anytime soon?

I saw one person that was playing with it. I think it's out there somewhere.

Yes, I have not read confession yet.

I see where I botched the Dr. Nanjo theory. However, I still stand by my belief that vigilante action was involved in some of the deaths in episode 3. I do however have an alternate explanation based upon rechecking the red truths, the timing of the red truths, and comparing their timing with some of the later deaths seen from Island Battler's perspective.

Culprit Prime or Culprit Beta, their death was not instant. Said person died later from the wounds. Sometime between regaining conciousness and dying, this person killed Dr. Nanjo.

During the later twilights, Island Battler saw one of the bodies. However, despite having the perspective of the detective, his observations may not be 100% correct due to mistaken diagnosis. (His perspective is trusted, but it can be suspectible to human error, an understandable flaw.) He did not check any vitals or do anything to confirm that the person was indeed dead. The later deaths were confirmed in red after Nanjo's death. Since the red truth about Nanjo killing people only refers to episode 1.

Dr. Nanjo killed someone in the third game, but it was neither vigilante action NOR murder.

This is based on common legal system definitions, which I will write in red.

Self defense is usually not considered the same as murder.

Also, an explanation for the second twilight.

The second twilight was not pre-meditated.

By the nature of the wounds, I suspect that pre-meditation was unlikely, but there was impromptu silencing of witnesses.

Sorry, but your solution... lacks love.

First game, second twilight. Two corpses are close together protected by a chain.

Anything involving the burnt corpse of Kinzo - How would either of your culprits be able to pull this off?

First game, fifth twilight. The last moments of a dying boy with a stake in his chest. First game, sixth, seventh, and eighth twilights. Three corpses lying in the closed room of a singing girl. You deny the absence of Shkannon in the first twilight... but your culprit's corpse lies among them.

Second game, second twilight. The corpses of two who are close are not close. How did Kanon's corpse vanish from the closed room?

Second game, fourth, fifth, and sixth twilight. In Natsuhi's closed room, none are left alive. Have you placed the crime of murder suicide here on the shoulders of another?

There's a big difference between being a trolling creator... and writing a 1 million word novel exploring the heart of a lonely, misguided girl.

edited 2nd Jun '12 9:28:48 PM by Oroboro

My Culprit Prime and Culprit Beta. none of them are amongst the casualties of episode 1, twilights 6-8. However, one of the casualties is involved somehow.

Episode 1, twilight 2. Remember what I said about my belief that one of the culprits might be a Yandere? What do yanderes do when they believe that their love is threated or obstructed? Remove any and all believed road blocks. Just ask Shion about that one.

Episode 2 twilight 2. The closed room can be explained with covert exchanges and later sleight of hands. The body being gone is part of the whole "misdirection" tactic designed to trick the group into thinking magic is involved by mimicing the epitaph.

Culprit Prime or Culprit Beta. One of them is reminiscent of Anakin, especially his episode 3 incarnation.

Anakin was motivated by love alright. A dark, corrupted, possesive form of love.

Episode 2. Twilight 4-6. The mess in the room indicated that some of these casualties were caused by CQC. It is my belief that deaths 5 and 6 were not premeditated. Remember Mustifar.

As for the Shkanon is the killer theory. Upon looking at the darker undertones of the idea, I believe that it requires a certain level of cruelty to pull something like that off. Manipulating the hearts of three people and culling some of them to the slaughter just screams a degree of cruel malice on par with Bernkastel. Since I've been a victim of heart manipulation/toying during one of my earliest experiences with "love", this theory hits way too close to home. Then there's the issue of requiring so many variables across multiple episodes. My theory is based on doing things so that there are as few variables as possible with them all being consistent across the episodes.

edited 2nd Jun '12 10:36:00 PM by magnum12