Hurricanes, tropical storms and the like from 2018

So, in a few days the 2018 hurricane season begins ... or rather it has already begun since Subtropical Storm Alberto is currently moving through the Florida Keys and will probably make landfall at tropical storm strength in the Florida Panhandle. The official forecasts indicate that this hurricane season will be either of normal intensity or slightly above it.

Also, this year is also seeing unusual activity elsewhere:

• A subtropical storm developed off the coast of Chile, a place where such things don't happen ever.
• The Arabian Sea has seen a cyclone landfalling in Somalia a week ago and another with a strength of a major hurricane in Oman.

edited 28th May '18 11:46:42 PM by SeptimusHeap

Center of rotation made landfall just 15 miles west of me. Reaction: meh. I've seen regular thunderstorms more breezy and dumping more rain than Alberto.

Aletta has become a Category 4 hurricane now. Not that it's likely to hurt anyone.

Been almost one month, the East Pacific has seen a couple more hurricanes and tropical storms, but elsewhere noteworthy stuff is happening:

• Super Typhoon Maria after passing by Guam is fluctuating between Cat 4 and Cat 5 and will approach Okinawa possibly at slightly lower strength. People there should probably watch out.
• Hurricane Beryl in the Atlantic Ocean appears to be one of the smallest tropical cyclones there on record. It could become a threat to the Leeward Islands such as Dominica in a couple days time, although the environment there is not really favourable.

... okay, a question about hurricanes in general. I always thought smaller storms were more dangerous, at least in their area, because they're "tighter" and better organised, ergo more intense. Is that remotely correct?

I think that applies more to just the eye? A smaller eye = tighter rotation and stronger storm.

Smaller storms are probably less dangerous as they don't last long for long,so while do they do cause damage and disruption it's not over a long period

As the NHC noted for Hurricane Beryl (the hurricane in question) being dwarf means that you cannot easily forecast its strength. They have less inertia and can spin up (or down) more rapidly.

Large cyclones are easier to forecast but:

• Can affect larger regions.
• Set more water in motion and thus kick up larger storm surges than smaller storms of equivalent strength (Hurricane Sandy is a good example)
• Weaken more slowly after landfall and after hitting wind shear as larger parts of the circulation stay over water and remain unaffected by the shear,respectively (Hurricane Irene is also a good example)

Edited by SeptimusHeap on Jul 6th 2018 at 11:59:32 AM

And now Atlantic TD 3 forms well off the Carolina coast; expected to stay off-shore.

Edited by tclittle on Jul 6th 2018 at 5:53:02 AM

Watch this space: Hurricane Hector may in a few days start affecting Hawaii in some way.

For complex reasons Hawaii is not usually hit head on by strong storms (Iniki in 1992 is simply a rare exception), so this is potentially noteworthy.

Noteworthy is also that the Atlantic is still stuck on letter C of the hurricane name list while the East Pacific is on its way to get I and possibly J soon.

Edited by SeptimusHeap on Aug 3rd 2018 at 11:13:05 AM

Yeah, the Atlantic season is looking like a dud this year. A new forecast was released yesterday predicting only 9 named storms, 3 of them hurricanes, 1 of them "major" (category 3 or higher).

Well, it looks like D has formed but will go away soon. Meanwhile the Pacific got to K although it looks like John is swallowing Ileana and neither Hector nor John or Kristy are likely to hurt anyone but the fishes.

There is some small chance of Hector affecting the Big Island and John could hit the Californias with surf and waves like 2014's Marie did.

If there are South Koreans (~D Roy?) in this forum: Typhoon Soulik is on the way to South Korea and it's predicted that it will be quite strong when it hits, perhaps only a little less than Typhoon Maemi in 2003 which is the strongest typhoon to hit South Korea in recorded history. That might cause some heavy damage.

...Man, I clearly didn't even put minimum effort to hide my nationality. XP

Ayup. It's going straight over my town. And just when I will be done my army time and come back home. XD

Meanwhile, bunch of weeks outdated perhaps on the other side of the Pacific Potential For Hurricane in San Diego Greatest in Over A Century because the sea off Southern California is unusually warm and this Pacific hurricane season has been unusually active.

Hurricane Lane is expected to scrape by to the southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, making it the second hurricane in just around a month to pass by.

Maui and Hawaii Counties are currently under Hurricane Watches.

Edited by tclittle on Aug 21st 2018 at 10:21:54 AM

And on that, Lane has just become the first Category 5 Hurricane^note First hurricane, first typhoon at Cat 5 was Maria in early July and first tropical cyclone overall this year to reach that strength was Cyclone Marcus off western Australia in March. this year. Note that it will probably weaken before hitting any of the Hawaiian islands.

Lane has weakened back to cat 4 status, but is expected to impact the entirety of the Hawaiian islands.

Hawaii and Maui Counties are under Hurricane Warnings.

Honolulu and Kauai Counties are under Hurricane Watches.

Damn, I was there literally less than a week ago when Hurricane Hector was passing by. Kona didn't experience much bad weather other than some moderate rain. Hopefully Lane will weaken some more before it hits.

Update: Honolulu County/Oahu island has had the Hurricane Watch upgraded to a Warning.

I would expect the entire chain to be under a Warning in the next 12 hours or so.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...15.9N 156.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES\\

It's begun.

Flooding and intense rain are hitting Big Island. Remember, the biggest danger from hurricanes is not the wind, it's the rain. Especially on mountainous islands such as Hawaii. A typhoon much weaker than Lane in 2008 swamped southern Taiwan, resulting in over 600 fatalities.

Is the volcano still erupting?

According to USA Today, it's gotten quieter over the last couple weeks. So probably no ridiculous footage of a lava flow during a hurricane.

Probably.

Trump did announce that FEMA's ready to go.

Of course, that's resulted in a backlash from people regarding his completely different response to Puerto Rico (given that his excuse was 'but it's surrounded by water!'). Anyway, from Hawai'i's perspective, let's hope he doesn't screw it up. And let's hope not too much aid is needed.

Seems like Lane has finally weakened to tropical storm strength as wind shear is tearing the storm apart.