Iraqi Kurdistan Referendum

The Kurds could become that. Sure, it'll take 15 years until it looks like a good deal and a lot can happen in that time.

But, Turkey is looking less and less attractive by the week.

Unfortunately I think it's actually totally possible the US will turn on the Kurds. With two of our allies and Russia and Iran all arrayed against them the situation doesn't look good, and we haven't exactly taken any sort of strong stance on them this far. Our stance has been no stance through the entire referendum, and none of our allies in the area are on board either.

I feel like ideally we should put diplomatic pressure on Turkey and Iraq, but time is running out to do that. We grounded the Iraqi air force already but that's not stopping them so I think something more severe is called for. If we can discourage Turkey and Iraq it seems likely that Iran will back off. Averting region wide war is the main priority I think really putting the pressure on them to back out would be the best bet here.

As far as Turkey being a counterweight to Russia, I'm not convinced they're a very good one. They've been cozying up to the Russians lately as a way to buy their military hardware, and they're barely even little d democratic at this point. Reinforcing Northern Europe and the Ukraine seems like a better bet there, but that's a different conversation. If Turkey can't play ball with us here I think we should seriously consider our commitments to them.

Looks like PM Fs are spotted among the Fed Pol-led offensive.

Iraqi troops announced that Kirkuk is now under Baghdad's control. Peshermga announced that one of its soldiers got killed by gunfire from Iraqi forces.

edited 20th Oct '17 10:23:43 AM by Ominae

I have read a very interesting article by a German expert about the situation. Unfortunately it is only availabe in German, but he made a few very interesting points, perhaps someone could verify them:

- The USA and the EU warned Erbil that holding a referendum was a dangerous idea and that they could not depend on their help if Bagdad were to intervene. Barzani thought this was a bluff and is now severely weakened.

- There is a very clear devision between the Kurds in the North who are governed by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Kurds in the South who are governed by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The PUK was against the referendum, because they viewed it as a ploy by the KDP to gain influence, and apparantly made a deal with Bagdad. They handed over Kirkuk and in return, Bagdad would respect their autonomy, and perhaps more importantly, finance some of their public expenditure. Because the Kurdish government is de facto bankrupt, and e.g. civil servants only receive approx. 30% of their official salary.

- In short, the position of Barzani is very weak, since he can not depend on foreign help, and a significant part of Iraq Kurdistan is against him. Furthermore even the forces he has, are very divided, many soldiers are not under his control, but under other local leaders.

edited 20th Oct '17 10:46:44 AM by Zarastro

Last stand for the Peshmerga is at Altun Kupri.

Some of the Peshmerga soldiers are begging for Coalition assistance to get Baghdad to stop the advance.

Nothing has changed in 100 years. The Kurds shall yet again get screwed over.

I mean, they'll probably/hopefully (knock on wood) retain their own region and government, but independence is off the table.

It is not like they weren't warned... .

What so everyone who gets warned should never try to have a nation of their own? The powers warning them shouldn't look back at how bad those decisions were years before and try something different?

The Kurds earned their right to be recognized and supported. They aren't simply brown people to be thrown into the slaughter and forgotten about once their utility is done, which is exactly what it looks like to them right now, after holding the line against Daesh.

Yeah them being warned that they were gonna be screwed over doesn’t somehow make screwing them over any less shitty.

I wonder if Syrian Kurdistan stabilising will lead to anything further down the road.

There’s also the very real risk of escalation, if Baghdad isn’t carful it could end up rallying Kurdish groups to the independence cause. A heavy hand is not needed here.

I am not saying that this was morally right. Just that the way the Kurds, particulary Barzani tried to achieve independence was incredibly stupid. It is a simple fact that there is an broad regional alliance, including all neighbours of a potential Kurdistan, which is firmly against indepence for the Kurds. Barzani was also told that he would not receive any Western help if he proceeded with the referendum. And even if Barzani underestimated the existing divisions between the Kurds, he should have known that trying to force the issue without international support against a powerful alliance could not end well. Thanks to this, the Kurds have lost mot Kirkuk most of their bargaining power, and perhaps even Western military support and training that could have made the Peshmerga more effective in a future confrontation with Bagdad.

From what I have read, the Kurds have now lost control over most of the oil fields and their local government is close to bankrupcy. Not exactly a promising situation.

edited 21st Oct '17 2:41:55 PM by Zarastro

I’d argue that the Kurds were never going to get international support, they were always going to be abandoned, as such going it alone is simply going to have to be how they do it.

Where he screwed up was not getting support from other Kurds, both within Iraq and in other Kurdish areas (the Syrian Kurds are one obvious group to work with).

And support from the Southern Part of Iraq Kurdistan. The time was simply not ripe for such a move.

Sadly Barzani does not see eye to eye with the PYD. The latter are hardline communists in all but name, the former sees himself as a dynast king destined to forge a unified Kurdish state.

I do agree with Zarastro that the time was not ripe. But the word of the Western states is neither here nor there at this point. Silas is correct that they were always going to throw them under the bus.

On the subject of Syrian Kurdistan, I think the only way they succeed is if they abandon notions of Kurdish-centric nationalism. Without Arab (and other minority) buy in, they can't even hold what they currently have, let alone anything more. On the other hand, if they do manage to get that buy in, they effectively can forge a new Syria, with themselves in the place of the Alawites.

Sadly I do not trust them to do so without also falling into tyranny, given how they treat the opposition parties in Hasaka.

edited 21st Oct '17 5:32:14 PM by FFShinra

One can only hope. From what I have read though, it seems also possible that they'll end up making a deal with Assad (like they frequently did during the Civil War) that grants them more local autonomy, but they remain part of Syria.

Given the circumstances, I'd argue that might be the best they can hope for.

Assuming they make that deal with the Russians. Assad himself seems, stupidly, intent on conquest instead.

11 peeps are killed in latest fights.

Iraqi court has ordered the arrest of the Vice President for inciting an uprising when he mentions that the Peshmerga is needed in the frontlines according to BBC.

There's an offer to halt talks of independence, but Baghdad wants all freezes on it to be made permanent.

Good luck with that. The Peshmerga retreating from areas outside their official territory is one thing, but if Baghdad overplays its hand, it could bite them in the ass. Especially if the reports of Barzani possibly stepping down are true, since blame (from the Iraqi unity point of view) falls solely on his head.

Now confirmed that Barzani is stepping down, but he'll stay with Peshmerga forces.

I wonder if, as a party, this would be the prime moment for yet another KWP offshoot to grow here. Both the KDP and the KUP seem to be in a bit of shambles...

So Newsweek is reporting that the government in Baghdad wants to strip Iraqi Kurdistan of even its legal autonomy now.

Another consequence of this, according to Reuters, is that the Syrian government is looking at what happened here and now intends to try for a full scale invasion of SDF-held territory.

If Baghdad goes for a full removal of autonomy than they’re likely to inspire a full scale independence warm the same with Assad and Syria.

Baghdad, Damascus, Madrid, is everyone a fucking idiot right now?

I can't believe this has happened to the Kurds; how in the world did the Kurds go from kicking ISIS out of several cities, to being curb stomped by the Iraqi Army, which itself was curb stomped by ISIS? I am just so utterly confused by this! It's like a ridiculous game of Rock–Paper–Scissors! I know there are divisions within Kurdistan (there are divisions everywhere), but seriously? They can unite to fight ISIS, but not to protect their nation from the pathetic joke that is Iraq?