Box Office Thread

Godzilla X Kong is riding Minus One hype, plus it can't be overstated how shockingly well Godzilla Vs. Kong did. And bizarrely, Minus One's bleakness made people look back at GVK's campiness with even more kindness. As long as the movie is solid and fun, it's definitely got a decent chance.

Deadpool 3 is as close to a sure bet for a blockbuster as we're getting this year.

Edited by Larkmarn on Feb 21st 2024 at 10:41:24 AM

Deadpool & Wolverine's gonna be really big. That's expected to be one of the most financially successful movie's this year.

Super Mario Bros. Movie 2023's gains compared to what Migration made is irrelevant for the record. Migration still financially performed in the bounds of where it was expected to and just because they're both the same animation company, doesn't necessarily mean one's impressive success is indicative to another's however low or high.

Speaking of Illumination movies, Despicable Me 4 is probably gonna be a hit too. Minions: The Rise of Gru was definitely a hit and the DM franchise is consistently successful. I don't expect any different here.

What's the consistency of the Kung Fu Panda franchise's box office success by the way? I expect the fourth movie in that franchise will do well too.

Also yeah, Godzilla x Kong is gonna be successful too. You look at how the previous movie did both during the pandemic and day and date on then HBO Max too and it's definitely looking good. Be interesting to see how well it does as well too.

Edited by futuremoviewriter on Feb 21st 2024 at 7:44:50 AM

Illumination is fairly reliable in that they can get a decent movie out with comparatively low budgets. Might be the one studio actually paying attention to the bills, really.

KFP consistently hits 5-to-600M, so yeah, that could work.

Not holding my breath for Deadpool though, there might be a fatigue for this kind of movies (and the MCU in general). This isn’t the mid-10s anymore.

edit: Wait, Boxoffice Mojo says that Dune 2 is already out in… Slovakia? Wut?

Edited by Lyendith on Feb 21st 2024 at 4:57:46 PM

First, the whole 'superheroes fatigue' is a myth, is just bad marketing, lukewarm reviews and continuity lockout that avoid people for seeing it (Ant-Man Quantumania, The Marvels and Madame Web are good examples). Many other superheroes movies of the last year like Across the Spider-Verse and Guardians of the Galaxy 3 did well in the box office. So I hope that Deadpool 3 will do well this year.

And second, there has been many cases of movies released earlier in many countries before his official release in the USA, and Dune 2 is not an exception. That or Box Office Mojo made a mistake.

Deadpool's been a very consistent and successful draw in his two solo movies—to the point that he probably bolstered Logan too, even if that movie was already destined to be a success. This not only has the two together, but is the canonical final Fox X-Men film too. While that franchise definitely faltered a lot in its final years, officially closing it out and paying tribute to it with these two at the center is without a doubt the right way to go—especially if they pay tribute to so many of the things fans loved about those movies too.

You look at No Way Home basically being the Endgame of Spider-Man movies—with this basically being the Endgame/No Way Home of those movies too—and there you go. Those two movies knew how to pay tribute to everything that came before them and it paid off in spades in every way you can imagine in both cases.

Edited by futuremoviewriter on Feb 21st 2024 at 8:12:25 AM

In Deadpool & Wolverine's case, it's a crossover of MCU and Fox-verse.

By "this kind of movies", I mean the metafests where everything is a joke and nothing really matters. Guardians 3 and Spiderverse were the post-covid standouts for a reason, those were superhero movies with comedy and references, sure, but they still tried to tell a story first and foremost. Same with The Batman (minus the comedy).

No Way Home was the big event that gathered all film iterations of Spider-Man, and that worked on sheer nostalgia fuel, but is there really a demand for a new Wolverine movie when Logan was already supposed to be the characters’ send-off?

Edited by Lyendith on Feb 21st 2024 at 5:41:40 PM

As far as next month goes, Dune: Part Two and Godzilla x Kong will end up being massive hits no matter what, while Kung Fu Panda 4 and Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire could go either way (I am rooting for Ghostbusters, though). Imaginary will probably turn a profit since it's a horror movie and those tend to be successful at the box office. April is what I'm really worried about, though, since half of the movies there (Monkey Man, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, and especially Civil War) could go either way. The First Omen and Abigail will probably do fine, and I'm not even sure about Challengers.

According to Variety, Joker 2 will have a budget of $200 Million.

https://variety.com/2024/film/news/warner-bros-spending-joker-2-budget-tom-cruise-deal-1235917640/

I'm pretty sure half of it is going towards paying Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga's salaries.

Edited by Nightbreeze on Feb 21st 2024 at 1:31:11 PM

The original had a budget between 55 to 70 millions dollars. So why the budget of this film inflated so much?

Edited by Starlink64 on Feb 21st 2024 at 1:35:32 PM

I know the first Joker movie was awesome and Oscar worthy but I hope 200 million movies become more rare soon.

I dunno what they’re thinking, but that money better be on the screen.

The 200 million dollars are then shown on screen lol.

Well that makes Joker being the first billion dollar R-rated movie even more impressive now, when the budget for the original was THAT LOW.

This really shows even midbudget movies can do gangbusters but they are all dead.

They spent that much money removing a mustache

Again, Anyone but You being the surprise hit it was—a throwback romantic comedy of all things in this day and age—is really refreshing and does mean hope is indeed alive too.

Rom Coms never really went anywhere, though.

Glen Powell was actually in another "omg, Rom Coms are back! movie, himself.

If you're talking about Set It Up, which debuted in 2018, that didn't even release in theaters.

Most studios have been putting low-cost Rom Coms on streaming because they aren't too sure if post-pandemic audiences would come out in droves to actual theaters to recoup the expense. The genre was seemingly waning in that regard.

Anyone But You made back its budget by more than seven times, through its worldwide gross. It was helped by good word of mouth, a holiday debut with minimal direct competition, its $25 million budget and star power chemistry.

Exactly. Anyone but You proved in spades that the genre on the cinematic side of things was alive and well—and could be again—by being a big Sleeper Hit when it came to numerous people actually being willing to go to the movies to see it.

I heard that Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom finished his theatrical run and has grossed $433 million against a budget of $205-215 million. Is that good or bad?

Edited by Starlink64 on Feb 22nd 2024 at 9:52:05 AM

I mean I would say sorta good but I have yet to see the other DCU movies box office but if it is low compared to others then I would say it's bad.

Rule of thumb is 2.5 times budget for breaking even, lower if it's mostly domestic.

Budget doesn't take into account marketing. Theaters take half the box office, overseas get a larger cut.

Edited by Ikedatakeshi on Feb 22nd 2024 at 11:33:08 PM