The World's Largest Election (India)

Okay sports fans, India just started its elections (it takes a month to complete it) and we have a two way (some would say three way) race to rule for the next five years.

Our contenders:

Congress - Center-left, socialist, incumbent, burdened by scandals. Most likely to lose. Both the left and the right hate them for different reasons. Current PM Manmohan Singh is retiring, Rahul Gandhi (son of Rajiv Gandhi, grandson of Indira Gandhi, and great grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru) is running things, and he doesn't seem all that into it.

Bharatiya Janata Party - Right wing, Hindu nationalist, main opposition, burdened by association to groups known for communal violence. Seen as the odds on favorite to win, mostly due to economic slowdown in recent years and disgust at Congress's scandals. Led by Narendra Modi, whose a Base Breaker for all of India (either you love him for his economics or hate him for his bigotry).

Now in recent months, a third contender has come in due to their winning control of Delhi's state legislature late last year:

Aam Admi (Common Man) Party - Centrist, reformist. Upstart party, burdened by its nigh-zealotry (it won Delhi only to collapse its own government because of a single issue, and the party leader spends a lot of time on strikes against the federal government even when he was the state Chief Minister). Led by Arvind Kejriwal, who has the same pros and cons as his party. Detractors in the BJP also think he's a cat's paw for Congress while Congress detractors thinks he's an anarchist.

So, I'm making this thread because I'm curious what nations outside India think of this election and because this election will have consequences region and world wide.

The Economist has had a series of articles on the Indian elections. I'll highlight two:

First this one because it covers the election in general. "...The mammoth electoral effort is an example of India working at its best. It is relevant globally, as a corrective for those who are made gloomy about the worldwide prospects for democracy, given the rise of undemocratic China and the weakness of Western powers."

And this one because it focuses on the front runner, Narendra Modi.

"...So there is much to admire. Despite that, this newspaper cannot bring itself to back Mr Modi for India’s highest office.

Modi’s odium The reason begins with a Hindu rampage against Muslims in Gujarat in 2002, in which at least 1,000 people were slaughtered..."

Indeed. Unfortunately, the tv news over there is far more in the tank for that guy.

My family is split between Modi and Kejriwal. I tend to lean Kejriwal myself, though the AAP's antics keep me from giving vocal support. Almost wish Congress had some fight in them, but they seem pretty resigned to a defeat.

I should also mention that this is the first time that None of the Above is an option in the election.

Anyone's nations have opinion on the election? I know the French are hoping he'll push through the Rafale deal finally, but other than that...

edited 11th Apr '14 9:11:53 AM by FFShinra

Might as well put this up: The BBC's guide to the Indian Election.

Here in the US we hardly know it's happening. I just finished watching the evening news, and they didnt even mention it.

When I want to learn about elections outside the United States, I look at Wikipedia: Indian general election, 2014

Nine phases! I thought they had only three phases. This election will take longer than I had expected. I will not have much interest until the election ends and I can learn who won. I have seen predictions that Modi will be the next PM. (I am also waiting for the election result in Afghanistan.)

So my perception is that the Congress Party is pretty much a subsidiary of the Ghandi family. How correct is that perception, does that perception exist in India and if so how much does that help or hurt it?

It's a dynastic party (a relatively common occurance in South Asia), yes, but part of it's problem is that the current Scion, Rahul Gandhi, has always been a reluctant participant (his sister was the one everyone wanted to run, but Sonia Gandhi said no). So it's dynastic traits are hurting it, but it's not the cause of their current unpopularity.

It's a common perception, but it's also mostly only a factor at the top, national level. It's a normal party otherwise.

edited 11th Apr '14 6:42:00 PM by FFShinra

Does Aam Admi have a viable national constituency (besides middle-class enclaves in urban areas such as New Delhi)?

Thats the big question. They believe they do, among the disaffected middle class and the poor, but it's unknown if they'll vote for them or for the BJP.

Who is AA competing more for votes with, Congress or the BJP?

Also, is a hung parliament a possibility in this election? (Say, BJP and AA split the disaffected vote evenly and leave Congress as the tiebreaker.)

edited 11th Apr '14 9:52:11 PM by Ramidel

If this has a really high turnout rate, I want to use it as an example to beat people over the head with in lazy democracies with populations of well under a billion.

Yes, it's possible. Regional parties not on either side can swing it in any direction.

As for votes, the overwhelming consensus is that Congress will lose one way or another. That means AAP and BJP are competing with each other.

Could be a Kinnock-style swing at the last minute. Is campaigning allowed during election-day/week/month/however long it is, or do they have to stop once the first polls open?

Kinnock-style swing?

Leading the polls until election day then taking a surprise defeat, as happened to Neil "Best PM Britain never had" Kinnock in 1992.

This?

edited 12th Apr '14 5:13:37 AM by demarquis

In that case, thats what everyone else is wondering. It's been a given for the last two years that Modi will come out on top...at least until December, when the AAP won Delhi in the provincial elections. Since then, everyone is wondering if they'll eclipse the BJP.

At the moment, it's unlikely anyone will win outright...too many regional and fringe parties in the mix. So it's a matter of a couple of dozen seats. But it can happen, yes.

On the subject of campaigning during the actual election, still happening. Besides, what politician can keep completely mum for a month?

In some countries campaigning is forbidden on election day. Granted that might not be viable when your elections last a month.

Are the results released as voting occurs or at the end of the month?

edited 12th Apr '14 8:08:03 AM by Rationalinsanity

What I'm wondering is whether, if AAP foregoes the patronage politics typical of India, whether anyone in the slums and rural areas will turn out to vote for them. And if it doesn't, whether 1) it will have the resources to compete with the big parties and 2) whether it will just come off looking like a big fraud to higher-income voters.

Results will be in all at once on May 16th. Though I'm sure the Indian news channels already have their own tallies, which shouldn't be trusted.

As far as I can tell, lack of patronage politics has been part of their appeal, thanks in part to their populist bent with the reform. They're also closer to a Single-Issue Wonk than an actual comprehensive party, focused on consumer protection and the Lokpal (Ombudsman) Bill.

I would think, however, that the appeal of not being a patronage party mainly applies to middle-class people who are sick of corruption. If you are a slum-dweller that relies upon patronage to direct public works projects to your neighborhood or supply you with disposable funds, this might not be as much of a selling point.

Thats true. The Indian lower class isn't ideological and tends to vote for whoever will provide for them. They like the AAP, but their pragmatism may have them in the BJP camp. But that's the big question, in a way. No one knows which way they'll go.

But it's not neccessarily patronage they want. They might, of course, but if that alone could do it, Congress would have this in the bag, being the one who requires them as a vote bank the most.

Even in India, I would have to think that there are only so many gov't posts to pass around...

Congress usually does it via subsidy or other programs to help the poor. Sometimes straight up handouts.

Though in general, there are never too many government posts, if they went that route. Take a look in neighboring Pakistan and their national airline. They have hundreds of employees per plane.