Okay, every topic that has even remotely to do with the middle east keeps getting more general news put into it which removes focus from the original topic.
As such, I'm creating this thread as a general middle east and north africa topic. That means anything to do with the Arab Spring or Israel and Palestine should be kept to those threads and anything to do with more generic news (for example, new Saudi regulations on the number of foreign workers or the Lebanese elections next year, etc.) should be posted here.
I hope the mods will find this a clear enough statement of intent to open the thread.
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
... I don't get it.
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
Destroy everything the guerilla relies on. The people, the institutions, the economy etc.
Edited by TerminusEst on Oct 26th 2018 at 10:31:09 AM
Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
The science fiction equivalent would be to use a Death Star to blow the rebel planet up or orbital bomb its surface until nothing is left on it.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Beware the Crazy Man.
I should note that Ibn Saud, back during his conquest of Arabia, had always intended to seize Yemen. British political pressure (they threatened to back the Hashemites again and thus let them reclaim Mecca) forced him to settle with what he had, which are the current borders of Saudia.
I wouldn't be surprised if Prince Mohammed (who already bears a striking resemblance to his grandfather) sees himself as the successor to that long idled ambition...
This war is a stalemate by choice.
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
Except by the looks of it, it's doing jack-shit to the Houthis.
Now this makes a lot more sense. Reducing the country to rubble "by accident" under the delusional belief that he could use it as a justification to effectively annex it into the kingdom... I could see that being MBS's logic.
Beware the Crazy Man.
Not entirely sure it would be seen as delusional. Yemen was a basket case before the war. Now, the state doesn't even exist. Every province of Yemen is currently a seperate fiefdom with their own dynamics and power players. Hell, the old emirs and sultans who were overthrown by the communists are slowing regaining power in Hadhramaut and Mahra.
If Saudi Arabia were to (through whatever weird legalese they manage it through) annex parts of Yemen (they could never get...or even want...the whole country) in general and the Hadhramaut in particular, not many would bat an eye if they provided better services for the locals after the war than they were getting before the war. It also would be strategically useful (as opposed to just ego-boosting for the Prince) because it would give them direct access to the Arabian Sea and thus remove the Iranian threat to closing the Gulf.
Basically, don't count out the possibility that the international community would sign off on such an annexation, especially if it isn't the whole thing.
By the way, you all should check out Peter J Salisbury's reporting on the fragmentation of Yemen at Chatham House. Very insightful.
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
It's not like the Saudi attack has been competent on any level.
Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
Yes, but usually when a plan fails to give the desired effects or even gives the opposite of the intended effects, it would lead to the people behind the plan stop doing it and start persecuting whichever advisor had suggested it to them in the first place, while looking for an alternative.
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
Usually. My suspicion is that as an institution the Saud and the military don't really have the capability to do anything else. Every advisor just says "kill 'em all".
Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
That ascribes a level of institutional intelligence to the Saudi military apparatus that it (and quite a few other militaries for that matter) just don’t have.
Surprisingly, “scorched earth” tactics are still seen as effective against insurgencies. Really, only a few Western nations have developed new COIN tactics. If scorched earth isn’t working, it’s usually assumed they’re just not scorching said earth hard enough. The idea of counterinsurgency as a hearts and minds game is pretty new, and hasn’t been fully embraced yet in most places.
Basically, what they’re doing is probably perceived as an effective tactic.
Edited by archonspeaks on Oct 27th 2018 at 10:24:34 AM
They should have sent a poet.
Hunger is a weapon of genocide. If they are starving during a war, that is not accidental, it means the Saudis mean to kill them all. It is a popular weapon of mass death because by the time people realize they have nothing to loose but their tombstones, they are too listless to put up an effective fight, and the psychological toll on the troops carrying it out is less - If you send your troops out to shoot everyone, at the end of the day, your army is going to be crazy, but confiscating food shipments? That is another day at the office.
Turkey is now asserting that Khashoggi's body was dissolved with acid after his death.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
You know, when the USA killed Bin Laden, they at least had the decency to give him a funeral.
The Saudis treated their own citizen like garbage to be disposed of. I guess comparing Mb S to a Mafia godfather is not too far-fetched.
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
I thought that was the Moroccan government's schtick. And didn't they already say that they found his remains in the Saudi Arabian consul's residence?
Edited by MarqFJA on Nov 2nd 2018 at 10:30:14 PM
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
I believe that was some sort of trace remains, but who knows at this point? Ankara is only marginally more trustworthy than the likely perpetrators and they've provided no solid evidence yet.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
In the name of being honest
Trump and Qassem Soleimani firing off GoT memes at each other on Twitter is such a 2018 mood.
Also, possibly inappropriate given the situation but has anyone talked about the impossible standard of alpha-ness set by the parents of Khashoggi's fiancée Hatice Cengiz when they named her after 1) Muhammad's wife/boss and 2) the guy who built the largest land empire in history >.>
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
Beware the Crazy Man.
Nothing will happen to MBS in the end. The House of Saud was too afraid of the transition to the next generation going awry (as in the various cousins fighting one another for the throne which, incidentally, is how they lost power the last couple of times back in the 19th century) for so long that most of the things he has done is seen by the family elders to be a good thing.
Of course, once he IS king, thats when the real fun begins as far as consolidating power in the House of Saud goes.
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
The Ottoman Empire has a few things to answer for. Bloody successions within a house as standard business practice being one of them. <_<
I mean, sure: successions are always dicey, whatever system you use. But the whole "kill all internal opposition off as quickly as possible to maintain outward stability" one is very hard on the carpets. -_-'
Edited by Euodiachloris on Nov 4th 2018 at 2:42:53 PM
In the name of being honest
Internal stability was a huge issue for the Empire. It's the reason the Sultans never left Kostantiniyye for long periods or without a whole army, and why none of them ever went on the Hajj: leaving the capital for that long was basically an invitation for a coup.
When Osman II announced in 1622 that he planned to go to Mecca with a small retinue, the army and nobility were shocked and immediately took it as a sign of an upcoming purge - the Janissaries had messed up the siege of a Polish-Lithuanian fortress in Ukraine the year before, and the Sultan wasn't impressed one bit. In the chaos, the Sheikh ul-Islam desperately tried to rein things in by announcing the "interpretation" that Sultans weren't required to go on the Hajj, which nobody bought. Poor Osman was offed by a Janissary coup a short while later.
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
Updates on the Khashoggi situation
:
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also told reporters that Saudi Arabia had to "act fairly" and disclose those responsible for the Oct. 2 killing of the Washington Post journalist to rid itself of "suspicion."
We gave them the tapes. We gave them to Saudi Arabia, to America, to the Germans, the French, to the British, to all of them," Erdogan said before departing for Paris to attend ceremonies marking the 100th anniversary of the end of the First World War.
"They [Saudi officials] also listened to the conversations and they know. There is no need to distort this. They know for certain who among the 15 is the killer or are the killers," he said.
He was referring to an alleged 15-member assassination squad that Turkey believes was sent to kill Khashoggi at the consulate where he had arrived to obtain papers to marry his Turkish fiancee.
CIA Director Gina Haspel, who visited Turkey last month for information on the investigation, is reported to have heard the audio recordings of the killing. The existence of the recordings was leaked to the media but never openly confirmed until now.
Edited by megaeliz on Nov 12th 2018 at 11:32:01 AM
In the name of being honest
Umm what. To ease Turkish pressure on Saudis over killing, White House weighs expelling Erdogan foe.
Trump administration officials last month asked federal law enforcement agencies to examine legal ways of removing exiled Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen in an attempt to persuade Erdogan to ease pressure on the Saudi government, the four sources said.
The effort includes directives to the Justice Department and FBI that officials reopen Turkey's case for his extradition, as well as a request to the Homeland Security Department for information about his legal status, the four people said.
They said the White House specifically wanted details about Gulen's residency status in the U.S. Gulen has a Green Card, according to two people familiar with the matter. He has been living in Pennsylvania since the late 1990s.
Career officials at the agencies pushed back on the White House requests, the U.S. officials and people briefed on the requests said.
"At first there were eye rolls, but once they realized it was a serious request, the career guys were furious," said a senior U.S. official involved in the process.
A spokesperson for the National Security Council initially declined to comment on this story but after it published, said in a statement: "The NSC has not been involved in nor aware of any discussions relating the extradition of Fethullah Gulen to the death of Jamal Khashoggi."
The State Department, Justice Department and the Department of Homeland Security did not respond to requests for comment.
A lawyer representing Gulen declined to comment. The FBI also declined to comment.
A Turkish official said the government does not link its concerns about the Khashoggi murder with Gulen's extradition case.
"We definitely see no connection between the two," the official said. "We want to see action on the end of the United States in terms of the extradition of Gulen. And we're going to continue our investigation on behalf of the Khashoggi case."
The secret effort to resolve one of the leading tensions in U.S.-Turkey relations — Gulen's residency in the U.S. — provides a window into how President Donald Trump is trying to navigate hostility between two key allies after Saudi officials murdered Khashoggi on Oct. 2 at the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul.
It suggests the White House could be looking for ways to contain Erdogan's ire over the murder while preserving Trump's close alliance with Saudi Arabia's controversial de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The kingdom, after initially denying any role in Khashoggi's disappearance, reversed course and admitted that Saudi officials were responsible for the killing. On Thursday, Saudi Arabia's top prosecutor recommended the death penalty for five out of the 11 suspects charged with killing Khashoggi. A total of 21 suspects have been arrested in connection with the case, according to Saud al-Mojeb.
Erdogan, meanwhile, has kept the pressure up by leaking pieces of evidence and repeatedly speaking out to accuse Prince Mohammed of orchestrating the murder of Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and outspoken critic of the Saudi leadership.
Saudi Arabia is critical to Trump's Middle East policy. The White House's relationship with Prince Mohammed is key to Trump's goals of countering Iran and helping to reach an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. Turkey is a NATO ally in possession of evidence about Khashoggi's murder that positions Erdogan to stoke international outrage over Riyadh's culpability in and cover-up of Khashoggi's murder.
Erdogan has for years demanded the U.S. send Gulen back to Turkey. The Turkish leader accuses the elderly cleric of being a terrorist who was behind a failed coup against Erdogan's government in 2016. After the coup attempt, Ankara made a formal request to the U.S. for Gulen's extradition.
One option that Turkish and Trump administration officials recently discussed is forcing Gulen to relocate to South Africa rather than sending him directly to Turkey if extradition is not possible, said the U.S. officials and people briefed on the discussions. But the U.S. does not have any legal justification to send Gulen to South Africa, they said, so that wouldn't be a viable option unless he went willingly.
Trump and Erdogan also recently discussed another option to relieve tensions — the release of Turkish banker Mehmet Hakan Atilla, who was sentenced in May to 32 months in prison by a U.S. federal judge for his role in a scheme to evade U.S. sanctions against Iran, two people familiar with the discussion said. Erdogan has criticized the case against Atilla as a political attack aimed at undermining his government.
The U.S. and Turkey have been engaged in negotiations over a series of sensitive diplomatic issues over the past few months, including a deal for last month’s release of an American pastor, Andrew Brunson, who was imprisoned in Turkey and an agreement for joint U.S. and Turkish military patrols in Manbij, Syria.
Gulen, who has lived in self-imposed exile in the U.S. for almost two decades, denies any involvement in the failed coup in Turkey in 2016. A one-time ally of Erdogan, he's become an influential cleric with a wide network of followers known as "Gulenistas." His movement includes a host of nonprofit organizations, businesses and schools, in the U.S., as well as South Africa.
After Khashoggi's murder, Erdogan appeared to see an opportunity to ratchet up pressure on the Trump administration over Gulen, the U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter said.
Turkish officials made clear to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during his Oct. 17 meeting with Erdogan in Ankara that they wanted the Trump administration to turn over Gulen, the U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter said.
"That was their number one ask," said a person briefed on the meeting.
Pompeo asked if Erdogan had new evidence of Gulen's involvement in the failed coup, prompting the Turkish leader to try to make the case that Gulen has terrorist ties, a senior U.S. official briefed on the meeting said.
In remarks to reporters traveling with him, Pompeo acknowledged having discussed Gulen with the Turks. "We did talk about Fethullah Gulen and we talked about the set of issues surrounding that organization as well," Pompeo said. "It's something that the Turks remind us of often, and we're mindful of places that we can work with them to make sure that we all have a shared set of facts as well. But it's mostly not a State Department issue; it's mostly a Justice Department issue."
The Turkish official wouldn't discuss details of Erdogan's conversation with Pompeo but said, "The Gulen issue is a part of any diplomatic conversation that we're having with our American counterparts."
Pompeo, who also met with Saudi leaders in Riyadh on that same trip, briefed Trump on his discussions after returning to Washington.
The Trump administration later sent word to Erdogan that officials would re-examine the Gulen issue, the U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter said.
Justice Department officials responded to the White House's request saying the review of Turkey's case against Gulen two years ago showed no basis for his extradition and that no new evidence to justify it has emerged, the U.S. officials and others familiar with the requests said.
Trump administration officials then asked for other options to legally remove him, the U.S. officials and others said.
They said the White House specifically wanted details about the terms under which Gulen resides in the U.S. Officials from the law enforcement agencies informed the White House there is no evidence that Gulen has broken any U.S. laws, the U.S. officials and others familiar with the requests said.
The requests on Gulen in mid-October mark at least the second time the Trump administration has re-examined Turkey's extradition request since taking office. In the weeks after Trump's inauguration, the White House asked the Justice Department to review Gulen's case, NBC has reported.
Some officials have described the first request as a routine part of a new administration reviewing its relationship with a key ally. The request, however, took place under Trump's former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, whose ties to Turkey came under scrutiny in special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian election meddling. Flynn, who resigned in February 2017, entered into a plea agreement with Mueller last December and has been cooperating with the investigation.
Turkey provided boxes of materials to the U.S. in 2016 that Erdogan says shows Gulen was behind the failed coup. But officials at the Justice Department and FBI didn't find evidence that met the standard for extradition, which requires U.S. prosecutors to determine that someone committed crimes abroad that would also be illegal in the U.S.
Relations between U.S. and Turkey have been strained under Trump.
Khashoggi's disappearance after entering Saudi Arabia's consulate in Istanbul introduced new friction. Turkey publicly accused Saudi Arabia of flying in an assassination team to murder Khashoggi. The two countries have long been rivals.
Amid Saudi denials over Khashoggi's disappearance, Turkey ramped up international pressure on Riyadh by leaking its possession of evidence, including recordings from inside the consulate that Turkey officials say show the Saudi government murdered Khashoggi.
After nearly a month, Saudi Arabia admitted its government officials carried out a premeditated murder of Khashoggi. The government, though, has insisted Prince Mohammed knew nothing of it in advance. Some officials from the U.S. and other countries have said they believe otherwise.
Erdogan said this past weekend that he's given Turkey's audio recording of Khashoggi's murder inside the consulate to U.S., U.K., Saudi, French and German government officials. His comments were a public reminder of the evidence Erdogan could expose at a time of his choosing, if he wanted to put pressure on the U.S. or Saudi Arabia. .
John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser, said Tuesday that U.S. officials who listened to Turkey's recording assessed it does not implicate Prince Mohammed.
Saudi Arabia has yet to disclose the location of Khashoggi's remains, and Turkey continues to put public pressure on Riyadh.
Trump has expressed reluctance to respond too strongly given Saudi Arabia's economic and strategic value to the U.S. At a news conference last week, Trump said he is working with Turkey, Congress and Saudi Arabia to determine next steps and will have a "much stronger opinion" on Khashoggi's killing over the next week.
Following the Saudi prosecutor's announcement Thursday, the Treasury Department announced sanctions against 17 people for their suspected role in Khashoggi's murder.
The group includes Consul General Mohammed Alotaibi, who was in charge of the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, as well as senior Saudi officials and members of the suspected assassination team who arrived in Istanbul in the hours before Khashoggi disappeared.
The 17 were sanctioned under the Magnitsky Act, which bars foreign officials from entering the U.S. and freezes any assets they have in American banks.
Oh, bother.
Trump would deliver Gulen’s head on a platter to Erdogan if given the chance.
Disgusted, but not surprised
In the name of being honest
I actually met a surprising number of kids from Gülen schools in uni - they're all pretty normal folks, and as far as I could tell didn't go through any ideological weirdness apart from Turkish language classes.
Echoing hymn of my fellow passerine | Art blog (under construction)
If you look at Myanmar you can see the logic, even if it is bloated with incompetence:
The strategy was masterminded by former dictator General Ne Win, leader of the 1962 military coup and a trainee of the once occupying fascist Japanese Army. The four cuts strategy was inspired by Japan’s “three all”, or sanko seisaku, (“kill all, burn all, destroy all) tactics as examined in Donald Seekins’ Burma and Japan since 1940: From Co-Prosperity to Quiet Dialogue.