War in Ukraine

Starting to look like the UAF have reached a high water mark in terms of retaking Donbass militarily

Zakharchenko currently meeting with students at Donetsk University. Says that he plans to take Slavyansk before Mariupol. https://twitter.com/olliecarroll

That past in July when they failed to split the two pro-Russian republics.

Just quickly on Poroshenko statement that 9000 russian troops have entered Ukraine. People often overestimate the scale of the fighting. Both sides "Battalions"are typically over-sized companies. Fighting most often takes place on multiple platoon sized scale with small fire teams back by fair amounts of artillery. Both the rebels and the Ukrainian army struggle logistically to launch operations larger then a full battalion sized. This is reason most offensives fail on both sides, because they lack the fresh reserves(manpower and supplies) to exploit them. Even in the August offensive the rapid progress of rebel groups had more to do with the complete lack of reserve troops then any strategic genius on their part.

If a modern Russian motor-rifles brigade(or yet alone two as is scale being claimed) entered the fight then there is nothing in Ukraine's arsenal that would be able slow it or stop it.

Regular Russian soldiers embedded in rebel forces are going to training, organizing and leading not fighting. And I would be very shocked if they number over a thousand(5% of the rebels total force). Thats excluding of çourse Russian volunteers who make up a significant minority of rebel forces (a quarter to a third).

edited 23rd Jan '15 2:26:54 AM by sayting

So yes, the New Terminal has been lost. Zakharchenko has declared that DPR can, and will, attack in three directions, Poroshenko has declared that he "won't leave things like that, there will be a full-scale response".

Where did you get these stats - "a quarter to a third"?

edited 23rd Jan '15 9:19:07 PM by Emuran

Based on a few things. I think a quarter to a third based on the Zakharchenko statement gave pre-August offensive that Russians made up a quarter, which was likely underestimates it however it was wildly report that large of Russians left Eastern Ukraine in october. This was backed up by a interview with one of Strelkov's original militia who had left and said many other foreign volunteers had left due to being demoralized by the Minsk Peace agreement. At the same time many of the Russian political and military leaders have been sidelined for local Ukrainians(nationality not ethnicity in most cases).

The Pro-Russian militias have been become more localized over time as while there was a fair level of support for the militias among the populace it was not to the extent of taking up arms. It was mostly the Eurasianist Russian groups(Strelkov), local radicals( DNR groups have been around since 2008) and Cossacks who stormed the police and army stations in the beginning. The government attacks on rebels in the cities served to radicalize the populations and lead to an increase in locals willing to fight.

edited 24th Jan '15 12:53:43 AM by sayting

Mariupol is being intensively shelled by the pro-Russians, already 11 deaths today, about 50 wounded.

DPR say they "lack the firepower to attack Mariupol", accuse the Ukrainians of shelling the city.

Debaltsevo is being encircled, and fighting is now practically happening on all fronts.

Death tolls rises to 27+ after second shelling, 100 wounded, Zakharchenko declares "offensive on Mariupol", Zakharchenko refutes his declaration of offensive on Mariupol (!).

Photos from Mariupol, Chervonyi Partyzan (taken by the rebels, too) and Stanitsa Luhanska.

edited 25th Jan '15 1:58:06 AM by Emuran

Two things:

1. Oliver Stone is criticizing the crisis in Ukraine in the news, but it's because of Western involvement. There's also something done by him too.

2. Getting reports of English-speaking contractors in Ukraine. Some say that these guys are from American/Canada/South Africa.

1. was discussed some pages ago.

2. has been reported since Maydan, with no proof at all. No contractors so far have been called officially by Ukraine.

Putin has declared Ukraine's army as "NATO's legion".

Nation-wide alert declared, state of emergency introduced in Donetsk and Luhansk regions (but not state of war emergency).

edited 26th Jan '15 6:05:22 AM by Emuran

Just for clarity's sake, "contractors" as in "private military contractors"?

German foreign minister Steinmeier has now threatened Russia with new sanctions if the pro-russian rebels should indeed try to take Mariupol.

This is very interesting because Steinmeier is generally considered to be more amicable towards Russia than Merkel and only a few weeks ago he ruled out any further sanctions. Some analysts even speculated that the German government might end up seriously divided over this subject and that Russia would try to exploit this opportunity.

However it appears that Steinmeiers patience has run out, probably because despite his attempts to mediate between the two parties (the foreign ministers of the Normandy format met in Berlin only a week ago) there has been no feasible progress so far. Especially the recent rhetoric of the rebel leaders seems to have appaled him, since he called it "hawky".

Looks like the rebels are attempting another Ilovaysk at Debaltseve, trying to encircle the Ukrainians.

Earlier today, the only Crimean Tatar TV channel was taken off air amidst riots.

edited 26th Jan '15 9:14:38 AM by Emuran

@Marq

- Yeah. Sketchy reports suggest their presence in Mariupol.

Russia's State Duma Prepares to Condemn West's 'Annexation' of East Germany.

http://goo.gl/K8iubD

And the propaganda war continues... .

Use the General Russia thread for that.

The resolution came about as a retort for what the speaker believed to be double standards - that the West supported German unification but was against what he sees as unification of Crimea and Russia. So the issue is related to this topic.

edited 28th Jan '15 2:06:54 PM by betaalpha

Reuters Opinion article comparing Ukraine to Poland on the brink of WWII

^ Quite a correspondingly alarmed avatar you've got there.

The rebels are intensively probing the Ukrainian defenses at Vuhlehirsk, west of Debaltseve.

Poland says they're considering selling weapons to Ukraine, as the Russian intervention there presents a "long-term danger" to Europe.

Better off giving them surplus rather than selling anything.

Better selling than doing nothing.

huh? How is giving them surplus the same as doing nothing? Selling it do them doesn't help Kiev's coffers, especially if its tech that they have their soldiers then have to train for.

I was trying to say that it's good that they're doing something, even if it's not the best they could do.

"What kind of weapons?" is the main question here, I think.

Info I have from various regions in Ukraine - medics and teachers are not being paid their salaries.

EDIT: An effort to get the Ukrainian Air Force airborne again would seriously impact the strategic conditions of the war - the Air Force has practically and literally gone off the radar after MH-370. Poland's arsenal, unique for a NATO member, includes large numbers of ex-Soviet gear including aircraft allowing excellent plausible deniability.

I watched an Italian film set during World War II last week, and that sounds awfully similar to a radio broadcast in one scene towards the end of the conflict describing a "delay in civic pensions" in a drastic move to fund the war effort.

edited 29th Jan '15 8:04:49 PM by FluffyMcChicken

Reuters article on an Ukrainian tanker's act of mercy that has gone viral. Has StopFake got anything on this?