Madness in Mali

http://soundcloud.com/martinvogl/interview-with-junta-leader-in Found this on the twitter feed. If anyone wants to know about the strongman, hear it from his own lips...

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So it seems the new regime is now negotiating with rebels, who have surrounded Kidal. In the meanwhile, same article has also said members of the garrison (who are mostly ethnic Tuaregs themselves) are defecting, having described a colonel crossing over with 30 soldiers and 10 vehicles.

In other news, the politicians have started a hunger strike as protest against Sanogo and his men.

Noted. Monitoring situation.

There was a great story back in December about the roots of the Tuareg Rebellion, including the historical context stretching back a few decades. Not sure if I can still find it, though.

A Captain can overthrow the government but a Colonel can only get 30 guys to follow him?

plus weapons, plus 10 vehicles. If those vehicles were tanks by any chance, thats quite a position, especially in tank country like the Sahel. But thats just a guess. It could also have been a political appointment, so the guy has the rank but not the actual respect that comes with it (which, being Tuareg, could be very well the case).

Some more news: The Foreign Ministers of Kenya, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe have all made it back to their homes.

edited 25th Mar '12 7:34:02 PM by FFShinra

The things about coups is that they tend to be led by captains and colonels. Generals are political appointments and have too much to lose if the regime falls; lieutenants are too low on the food chain, and grunts just worry where their next paycheck is coming from. Colonels have the ambition to advance higher, the frustration of not being able to, and the power and experience to do something about it.

Depends on how large the military in question is (coups in Asia and I think even in South America tend to be done by general officers), but that's certainly true for Africa.

What I want to know is how many military vehicles the Malian Army had all together. Wikipedia is no help for actual amounts. Anyone know any good resources?

This profile suggests:

So, not exactly a regional powerhouse. It also mentioned that Mali had two tank battalions, which look like they're pretty far below TO&E strength.

As you'd probably guess, the tanks are T-54s and T-55s. Possibly some T-34 (some were in service in 2001), but it's unknown whether they're still operational.

edited 26th Mar '12 7:05:58 AM by Greenmantle

Well in that case I'm at least glad that these people don't have the equipment to escalate the conflict. I mean, that's something, right?

Not that I've seen anything to suggest that anyone wants to take this shit to other countries now.

121 vehicles all together then, at least by the last count. If one takes into consideration whatever vehicles they might have lost already to war and/or attrition, plus other defections, plus vehicles necessary for the new regime to keep the peace in Bamako, I'd say then that a loss of ten is quite significant. Though it of course depends on what those vehicles were...

In a country that doesn't necessarily have the defenses to defeat them, T-34s and 54/55s are quite lethal. I'd argue thats probably why the Tuareg have such an advantage now since they have the G-man's 80s tech to make all that armor obsolete in the conflict.

Some news: The US has joined with much of the rest of the world in "pausing" military aid.

There was a rally in Bamako calling for the restoration of the government. Wasn't that organized though.

Airport has also been partially reopened.

If a more conclusive link is found between the MNLA / Ancar Dine (Tuareg rebels) and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb, what's the likelihood that the US (if not the whole international community) will have to greatly increase the amount of support and hardware going to Mali's rebel military? Even if it's used on Tuareg villagers?

(edit to try to make my post clear - what with there being two rebellions against the Mali government!)

edited 26th Mar '12 11:14:17 AM by betaalpha

It's amazing how cheap and petty this war seems to one who's used to the kind of logistics deployed in Operation Desert Storm.

@betaalpha: it's too soon to tell, but I'm guessing it's pretty unlikely, at least for a while. Found that article. Basically, the Tuareg insurgency's been a long-running business; Gaddafi may have posthumously contributed arms, but that wasn't the prime mover behind it. More importantly, it's not primarily an Islamic thing. AQIM may come to decide to support it, but at the moment it's still a regional/ethnic deal.

All reports of their alliance make it a point to also state that its one of convenience (AQIM is a good source of arms and revenue it seems). The Tuareg are themselves relatively secular. I would think that if the West played their cards right and treated the Taureg demands a bit more seriously, which also means moolah to go with it, AQIM's hold over them would become very tenuous indeed.

Of course, Mali (along with other states in the region) would end up screwed from such a deal, so its not quite so simple a plan...

Sahara as an ocean, oasis are islands, Tuareg are migrant people on boats? Problem with desert borders: very hard to defend, very hard to keep law and order around. Solution: embrace the chaos/freedom and take advantage of it, somehow?

Perhaps. If I remember, the Saudis dealt with the Bedouin by more or less ignoring them, but that doesn't look like an option here.

Update: hold on, the new military government may decide to negotiate with the rebels.

...um.

Didn't they want out of the war and their main grievance was that they were getting killed in a mismanaged conflict? Or maybe they want a ceasefire to consolidate their power and get some breathing room?

My guess is that they wanted to win the war and think that everyone agrees with them that if they're properly managed, they'll win it for sure. So they kick out the government, replace it with the military, and invite the enemies to consider that, with military management, the army is just gonna win no matter what so the enemy can just surrender and be done with it.

If that's the case, they're just kind of telling the insurgency that, as it says in The Art of War, the side that now can plan their campaign has already won and the other side should give up instead of having their last stand at all.

Now, even if my guess is right and this is indeed the thinking behind all this, that doesn't say very much about whether or not it's true that the army could win so easily that they can take it for granted that the other side is just gonna cave in.

I doubt they'll just cave.

They'll more likely see the chaos in the enemy camp as a chance to consolidate their own position, a chance to expand and take it as a propaganda piece to recruit others and galvanise their own.

Let the musical chairs begin.

The rebels have already taken advantage and seek to run up the score as fast as possible before Sanogo thinks he can actually go on the attack. Even before the coup, they held the cards. Now it's just a matter of when rather than if they seize the Azawad.

News:

It seems the coupmakers have put in place a new constitution to replace the old one.

Rumors are that the West African Central Bank has closed its doors, thus limiting cash supply to banks in Bamako.

Civil Servants were ordered to go back to work or stand sacked. Of course, when they went back to work, they couldn't because their offices had been looted...

More importantly, both Reuters and the Associated Press are reporting that Mali's neighbors, under the ECOWAS banner, are threatening not only sanctions, but possibly military force to restore the former government. Of course, they say that would only be considered as a last result, but the fact that its even being considered is telling.

If they were sent to their looted workplaces, at least they can make some effort towards tidying up the place, right? Do the best you can, that sort of thing. Everything helps, I suppose. So it's not for nothing that they were called back to work, I think.

BTW, you probably meant that intervention is the last resort, not the last result.

Aye.

More news: Huge pro-junta rally. Lots of anti-foreigner sentiment.

Also, the ousted president is safe, and not imprisoned and still in Mali.