If Yellowstone Blows

So here is the ash fall of the previous yellowstone eruption: http://www.geol.umd.edu/sgc/lectures/endoftheworld.html

Let's say that Yellowstone goes off sometime in our lifetimes (not terribly likely for any given century, but in the realm of possibility). Putting aside the problems of volcanic winter and the mass extinction event it could potentially trigger, what happens to the world once things start to get a bit "back to normal"?

Basically, carve out almost all of the midwest, texas, and southern california - the states, and the millions of people who once lived in the region, are now buried under ash three meters thick. How would the world respond if half of the United States basically disappeared in a matter of years? Would they leave America alone, or take revenge/advantage of the situation? I can see settlers from Mexico potentially trying to reclaim northern california, and perhaps China or Japan claiming Hawaii and parts of California in the power vacuum, but that is just my conjecture. What do you all think?

If Yellowstone blows, everything will suck. :P

This won't be just a US event, it will impact the entire world, with the famines and everything (have to remember also the ashes can cover up the whole world failing all crops in the world), so it will be very hard to say what will happen. Who's going to survive this?

Mm. The US would be gone. Geopolitical control would shift drastically. Eventually, somebody would show up to pick up the pieces.

Past the very broad strokes, actually predicting what would happen is like playing darts blindfolded. You really want to know, go spend a few years researching and write it as a story. Otherwise, we really won't be able to tell you.

Considering the massive death and destruction that would take place, I can't imagine anyone would be eager to 'reclaim' anything for a while. And shit, like was said above, they'd be dealing with the consequences for themselves. All that crap up in the air? That's going to block out the sun in large parts of the world for I don't know how long.

In the long run, assuming that there are American survivors, it's Americans that are going to 'reclaim' or rather, you know, retain the land they were occupying for years already.

Although this all assumes that the disaster doesn't blast us all back to an earlier technological age.

Well, theoretically speaking, the ash clouds would definietly go into Europe. The US would most likely be a wasteland, and Europe be uninhabitable for a few centuries.

At best, that's the entirety of western civilisation gone.

Australia becomes the center of power in the new world order! Hell, they're already a Death Continent, they can survive this scenario!

...

That doesn't actually sound too implausible.

Would Yellowstone affect the US that drastically? It's in a rural area.

Well, it would probably be China and Japan before it'd be Australia. Perhaps the Middle East would also stabilize without the interference of the West, though I doubt whatever came out there in such a situation would be pretty.

Edit: It's not called a supervolcano for nothing. Apparently the last time this went it made everything from southern Canada to midwestern Mexico extinct.

edited 13th Feb '12 4:51:55 PM by Flyboy

What Flyboy said. It's a supervolcano with a massive reach if it does explode. Like continent wide reach. That's three entire countries gone almost immediately if it does, then slow choking for the rest of the planet.

And knowing China and Japan (especially their enmity) that's not going to go down well, especially when there's no one around to make Japan to keep to its post-WWII agreements (the one about her only allowed a small, self-defence force). What I see would happen: Japan, with the West crippled, takes the chance to expand its military. China sees this as a sign that Japan's going back to militarism and raises the stakes.

Well, we have much of Asia left, and Australia.

Australia will have to choose; it has burgeoning trade with both China and Japan.

Japan, with the West that acts as its defense being gone, is entirely in its rights to form a military as otherwise it would get steamrolled right the fuck over by China. Although in this scenario, they're both far more likely to be concerned with surviving instead of making war. Seriously, this would end up straining the resources of any surviving countries, and while it can make for volatile situations it's quite probable that they might not be able to afford war with each other, at least in the short term.

I think Japan would be screwed; they lack the material resources to win an arms race with China.

Now, whether or not China automatically becomes the uncontested dominant power of the world depends on how far the cloud went. If Russia is still kicking, things are very different...

If it blew. It would likely be the end of the U.S. The amount of pressure from that kind of disaster would pretty much break what is left. The massive change in local environemnt plus the changes in climate from the event would be devastating.

It would take a long time for things to work out. There is not telling how severly the rest of the world would be impacted by the event. I would imagine this event would have quite noticeable global impacts.

Mount Saint Hellen's eruption had quite a reach around the world. That was one volcano and not a massive super caldera.

edited 13th Feb '12 5:14:37 PM by occono

I'm still a bit skeptical if that depiction is accurate.

But if something like this did happen, probably the UN would organize a humanitarian effort to help people evacuate from danger zones and provide care. Not all nations will be that nice to US, but there has to be some that stand for it.

Possibly not completely. I deleted it like immediately after.

But....going by the size of the thing....

edited 13th Feb '12 5:17:35 PM by occono

I was thinking more long term though. The effects of such a disaster is such that it will take a long time before countries can start thinking about anything other than survival.

Yes - like at least 25 years, if some projections are right. Even then, population pressure would be right down across the globe.

^^^^ There wouldn't be much of a UN left. Only Asia and Australia wouldn't be busy just trying to survive, and even they'd have problems.

edited 13th Feb '12 5:51:40 PM by RTaco

All of Europe?

Europe would most likely be choked by the fallout.

Busy starving to death and choking on ash.

Why would Asia be better off than Europe, then?