China's Ghost Cities

I found this rather interesting. The Chinese bubble is going to be bad. 64,000,000 empty apartments and growing...

Sorry about all of the China threads lately. I've just been more focused than usual on China.

edited 8th Sep '11 6:16:05 PM by Pentadragon

...China is going to have massive economic and demographic problems soon?

I'm so shocked!

Real estate bubble? :P

Yeah, but I think you should put this in proportion.

What is 64 million, really, to China?

Actually, do we have a statistic on the percentage of empty houses in China compared to western countries?

Yeah, if we're talking so much about scale, we all know that China is really farking huge population-wise. Percentages would be easier to compare and understand.

^^ In 2008 there were about 18.5 million unoccupied houses in the United States. I believe that number has gone down a bit since then. This article seems to indicate that there were about half a million empty homes in the UK last year.

edited 8th Sep '11 6:34:31 PM by Pentadragon

aaaand not a single economist was shocked.

This is just like russia in the middle of the century. everyone was terrified of their GDP growth..until diminishing returns on "BUILD MOAR FACTOREEEZZ" kicked in

edited 8th Sep '11 6:36:34 PM by Midgetsnowman

A bubble is a bubble. 65 million-odd houses sitting idle means they're into the Broken Window Fallacy: yes, you can build houses, but if nobody is buying and living in them, it's just a waste of resources.

Let's see then. US has a population of about 312 million, so the unoccupied percentage of houses was about 6%. In the UK, that's about .8%.

China has a population of about 1,340 million — 4.8%.

I am not impressed.

edited 8th Sep '11 6:38:54 PM by OhSoIntoCats

Don't forget that a great portion of China's population are in rural areas that contribute virtually nothing to the economy. I'm no economist, but from what I understand, China's growth is unsustainable.

So we're talking about China's ghost cities when we have the same problem... except worse? Interesting.

Worse as a percentage, which is worse than useless in this context.

Besides, China doesn't have enough regulation or will to regulate to even begin to curb such a problem before it's too late...

I guess that depends, what is the context it should be set in?

I too am concerned of a Chinese bust some time in the future, since that would negatively impact the export economy of my country. However, I'm not entirely certain what the issue is in good detail to propose any kind of solution. Seems like a self-fixing issue... if people are building houses that no one is buying they'll go out of business and people won't build more houses. Unless something worse is happening?

Tommmuuuuuuuuuuuuuu where are youuuuuuuuu

50% of apartments in Shanghai are empty.

I've been saying this for a while.

x6

Massive growth is always unsustainable over the long term. The massive growth is from rapid industrialization. Its unsustainable in the long term because you can only industrialize so much before you run out of spare workers.

edited 8th Sep '11 7:36:45 PM by Midgetsnowman

Is squatting legal in China?

I would love if China collapsed in on itself. A good kick in the ass to remind those people that their government is a tyrannical case of FUBAR in the most classic sense.

Well, point is, Chinese economy is based on infinite growth, which doesn't actually exist. If those companies making the houses go out of business, people lose their jobs, and then aren't spending what meager pay they might have been getting. This will ripple outwards.

And when the fantasy of the "invincible Chinese economy" comes crashing down around the people's ears, they'll want answers from the government. Answers, more specifically, that the government in China doesn't have.

Meh, the same is to be said of most western countries. It's doubtful if that'd occur.

Unsustainable growth is mostly when your supply outstrips demand. The global economy isn't doing well and they've a lot vested in trade. So they're just going to have to focus on consolidation for a while to build domestic demand for goods.

China collapsing on itself would be badbadbadbadbad. Horrible economic effects and the humanitarian crisis would be extreme. That would be one of the worse possible things that could happen to this world. Their government is horrible, but the alternative in this scenario is far worse.

uit wont collapse. it'll become like america. slow but steady growth.

Unless it doesnt invest in technology. Then Russia ahoy.

I'm going to go ahead and assume that squatting is not legal in China.

Reminds me of that one village, Wan Bi Yu or something?

Cats: Squatting is usually illegal in any nation. There may be specifics that apply but you would need to look those up.

The question is what happens if they do not fill these lovely ghost towns?

edited 11th Sep '11 3:17:46 PM by TuefelHundenIV